MLB Picks

Dylan Cease has elite swing-and-miss stuff, ranking in the 98th percentile in whiff rate, while owning a 36.8% strikeout rate. 

This matches up well against a Red Sox lineup that sits 20th in xBA against the slider with a 31.7% whiff rate, the pitch that Cease uses as his out-away pitch with a 46.8% whiff on it. 

Bobby Witt Jr. enters tonight in a strong spot against Washington left hander Foster Griffin. Witt has consistently hit southpaws well, carrying a .321 average, .921 OPS, elite hard contact, and strong barrel production. Griffin has struggled with right handed hitters, allowing elevated hard contact and quality contact metrics across recent samples. Witt also profiles well analytically, with strong Batters-Box arsenal coverage against this pitch mix and a solid hit rate in comparable strong-rated spots over the last three seasons. The matchup supports production, but price matters, with better value potentially in doubles or home run markets if the prop is inflated.

Gerrit Cole's 4th-percentile ground ball rate is a concern abgainst a lineup with sneaky power. On the other side, Davis Martin faces his own hurdles with a 9th-percentile hard-hit rate allowed, surrendering loud contact at a 46.5% clip. Even with Judge sidelined, the Yankees still have Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger to provide pop, while the Chicago lineup features a trio of bats sporting xSLG marks over .530. Play to -130.

Juan Soto is in a strong bounce back spot after going 0 for 2 with two walks last night. He draws Cincinnati right hander Brady Singer who has struggled heavily with left handed hitters, allowing a .362 average .621 slug and .442 wOBA at home this season. Singer grades as one of the weakest arms on the slate per Batters Box metrics. Soto owns elite matchup coverage at 92.2 percent and has been heating up with a .922 OPS and strong hard contact. 

This is one of my favorite YRFI spots on the board. Giants starter Adrian Houser enters the day as the worst pitcher on Batters-Box and has struggled mightily in the first inning, posting a 9.00 ERA while allowing opponents to slash .302/.409/.698 through 13 starts. Braves right-hander Grant Holmes is not in much better shape, carrying the third-worst pitcher rating and a 4.83 first-inning ERA. With seven strongly rated Braves bats, five highly rated Giants bats, and a combined nine elite-rated hitters in this matchup, there is plenty of firepower to cash a first-inning run.

One team has the flashy names and star power, while the other should be a bigger favorite than the market suggests. The St. Louis Cardinals are trading at -110, but I make them closer to -125, which is why I'm backing them in this spot. Michael King gets the start for San Diego and relies heavily on his sweeping slider. It's a tough pitch for right-handed hitters, but it becomes more vulnerable against left-handed bats because it breaks into their barrels. That's significant because the Cardinals should have five left-handed hitters in the lineup. I also like how St. Louis is constructed offensively. The Cardinals can alternate left-handed and right-handed hitters throughout the order, making it difficult for King to settle into a rhythm with his pitch locations and sequencing. That constant change in handedness should help neutralize his best pitch and gives St. Louis value at the current number.

 Minnesota Twins outfielder Kody Clemens is in a strong spot against Texas Rangers right hander Kumar Rocker, who has shown clear vulnerability to left handed hitters, especially at home. Rocker is allowing high elevation, hard contact, and strong production metrics, including a .425 slugging and .332 wOBA split. Lefties overall have had success against him with a .302 xBA and .529 xSLG. Clemens has also been red hot over his last 30 plate appearances versus right handed pitching, posting a .345 average, 1.229 OPS, strong power numbers, and consistent hard contact. 

Ryan Feltner owns a 3.86 ERA over the past 30 days despite an alarming 4.73 xFIP and 5.03 SIERA. His numbers will head south sooner than later.

The wheels have completely fallen off for Edward Cabrera, with the veteran righty conceding at least three runs in eight of his past 10 games.

Play to -125.

Zack Gelof might not be the first name that comes up when talking about the power in the Athletics lineup, but he is slugging .600 over his last 13 games with three home runs and a 164 wRC+. He is also +517 to go deep today in arguably the best home run environment on the board. That's a big difference compared to teammates like Nick Kurtz, who is priced shorter than +200 in some spots. The launching pad that is Sutter Health Park is helping everyone these days, and the 85-degree temperatures are the hottest on the slate. Gelof is hitting 40% of his balls to center field, where the double-digit winds are providing a boost today, and more than 50% of his batted balls are getting in the air. This home run has a fair price of around +420, per the projections at Covers. From the starting pitcher to the bullpen, form, price, and hitting environment, there is a lot to like about Gelof today.

Justin Wrobleski’s .243 BABIP, 77.9% strand rate, and 6.1% HR/FB rate are all begging for regression. Both bullpens have been atrocious - L.A. has the third-worst bullpen ERA (6.57) this month, while Tampa has the sixth-worst (5.63) - so I love the plus money on the Over with the wind blowing out to dead center.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.