MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best hitter in MLB as it relates to his BABIP talent.. James Wood is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The 7th-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB are found in Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 86°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

Although Friday’s opener featured plenty of offense, neither team scored in the first inning, and Saturday’s pitching matchup should favor another NRFI. Cristopher Sanchez owns a 2.11 ERA and strong NRFI numbers, while Bubba Chandler has surrendered just one first-inning run all season. Both offenses have also struggled to produce early runs lately.

When estimating his home run skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Christopher Morel has big-time power (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Nick Martinez is a pitch-to-contact type (11th percentile K%) — great news for Morel.. Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst among every team in action today.

Matt McLain enters Saturday swinging a hot bat after homering in back-to-back games for the Reds. The second baseman draws a favorable matchup against Gavin Williams, who has surrendered eight home runs through nine starts and struggled badly lately. At nearly 10/1 odds, McLain offers excellent value to stay hot against Cleveland tonight.

When estimating his home run ability, Kody Clemens ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kody Clemens is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. Target Field grades out as the #7 field in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The weather report calls for the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Taillon is flirting with a 4.0 ERA despite a .214 BABIP, and 85.5 LOB%. He has benefited from great batted ball luck, stranded baserunners at an unsustainably high rate, and is still giving up plenty of runs.

Martin is a very good pitcher but he has also gotten lucky. His xERA is 3.91, more than two full runs higher than his actual ERA of 1.62.

Regression could come for both against strong offenses.

The Astros have hit their Team Total Under in 13 of the last 15 games (+10.35 units, 55% ROI), and a date with Jacob deGrom is only going to highlight their woes at the plate. The Rangers aren't exactly firing on all cylinders either. They are hitting only .216 in May and own the fifth-highest ground ball rate, leading to a lot of easy outs.

The best way to score runs in bulk is with the longball but hitting homers will be difficult for both teams in this matchup. Elder has done a fantastic job of suppressing power, allowing 0.49 homers per nine innings while posting a remarkably strong 3.5% barrel rate. Tolle has conceded 0.72 homers per nine innings and ranks second among today's projected starting pitchers in soft contact rate.

I like Mets arm Huascar Brazoban. He looks to be the opener in what is expected to be a bullpen game for the Mets and should have some success. His hard-hit rate and barrel rate sit in the top 3% of baseball, which should help him avoid any early crooked numbers from the Yankees.

I eventually expect the Yankees to open the scoring up against a relatively taxed bullpen; there is still plenty of reason to think this looks a lot like last night rather than some offensive showcase. I projected this total at 8 and would play it to there.

Over the past month, San Diego relievers lead the majors in xERA while ranking second in xFIP and GB%. The Mariners' lineup performs better outside of T-Mobile Park, posting a .347 wOBA on the road vs. just .320 at home the past month. The Under is 7-2 in San Diego’s last nine and 8-2 in Seattle’s last 10, and that trend will continue.

 

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest fences in the league.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of the day at 88°.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.