New York @ Washington Picks & Props

Nationals Park grades out as the #27 park in baseball for RHB BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Low humidity has a small but significant connection with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-lowest humidity on the schedule today at 40%. Harold Ramirez's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 89-mph figure last year has fallen off to 86.2-mph. Harold Ramirez's launch angle this year (-0.8°) is considerably lower than his 5.8° figure last season. In the last week's worth of games, Harold Ramirez's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 80th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. CJ Abrams will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP. CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. The 7th-shallowest RF fences among all stadiums are found in Nationals Park. Jeff McNeil may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP. Jeff McNeil has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph to 90.7-mph in the past week. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 12.7% to 16.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.D. Martinez in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. J.D. Martinez is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that DJ Herz throws from, J.D. Martinez will have the upper hand today. J.D. Martinez has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. J.D. Martinez has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 97.9-mph average in the last week to his seasonal figure of 95.4-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 79th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Lane Thomas is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Lane Thomas will have the handedness advantage against Sean Manaea in today's matchup. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the New York Mets. Lane Thomas will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Francisco Alvarez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Batting from the opposite that DJ Herz throws from, Francisco Alvarez will have an edge in today's matchup. Francisco Alvarez has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 101.6-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 89.1-mph. Francisco Alvarez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 10.4% on the season to 36.4% in the past 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. The 7th-shallowest RF fences among all stadiums are found in Nationals Park. Brandon Nimmo will probably have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP. Brandon Nimmo has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.5-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 92.2-mph figure.

Joey Meneses's batting average ability is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Joey Meneses is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Joey Meneses will have the handedness advantage against Sean Manaea in today's game. Joey Meneses has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Francisco Lindor will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against DJ Herz today. Francisco Lindor has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.4% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the past week. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.2°, Francisco Lindor has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 30° figure over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Hitting from the opposite that Sean Manaea throws from, Jacob Young will have an advantage in today's game. Jacob Young has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the New York Mets. Jacob Young will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 19th-best batter in the majors. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Pete Alonso will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against DJ Herz today. In the last 14 days, Pete Alonso's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.2-mph over the course of the season to 96.6-mph lately. With a .338 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Pete Alonso finds himself in the 80th percentile for offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 84th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Hitting from the opposite that DJ Herz throws from, Jose Iglesias will have the upper hand in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Iglesias generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like DJ Herz.

Ildemaro Vargas is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Ildemaro Vargas will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Sean Manaea today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the New York Mets. Ildemaro Vargas will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Posting a 1.38 K/BB rate this year, Ildemaro Vargas has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 95th percentile.

Harrison Bader is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Batting from the opposite that DJ Herz throws from, Harrison Bader will have an edge in today's game. Harrison Bader has made big strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last week. Harrison Bader has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 91.8-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 87.4-mph figure. Over the last 14 days, Harrison Bader's 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.8%.

Mark Vientos is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Batting from the opposite that DJ Herz throws from, Mark Vientos will have an advantage in today's matchup. Mark Vientos has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 15.1% seasonal rate to 29.2% in the last 14 days. Over the last 7 days, Mark Vientos's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.7-mph over the course of the season to 109.1-mph lately. Compared to his seasonal average of 6.3°, Mark Vientos has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 29.3° figure over the past week.

Tyrone Taylor will hold the platoon advantage against DJ Herz in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Tyrone Taylor's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.8% up to 27.3%. Tyrone Taylor has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal figure of 92.2-mph. Tyrone Taylor has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .288 mark is quite a bit lower than his .321 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the New York Mets. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Keibert Ruiz will hold that advantage today. There has been a significant improvement in Keibert Ruiz's launch angle from last year's 15.1° to 20.8° this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Keibert Ruiz's true offensive talent to be a .295, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .058 deviation between that figure and his actual .237 wOBA.

Nick Senzel will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Manaea in today's matchup. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the New York Mets. Nick Senzel will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Compared to last season, Nick Senzel has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 11.4% to 22.3% this season. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.233) provides evidence that Nick Senzel has had some very poor luck this year with his .211 actual batting average.

Hitting from the opposite that DJ Herz throws from, Luis Torrens will have an advantage in today's matchup. Luis Torrens has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.