LIVE bottom 2nd Jul 22
DET 4 -132 o7.0
CLE 0 +121 u7.0
LIVE bottom 2nd Jul 22
NYM 2 -140 o8.5
MIA 0 +129 u8.5
LIVE bottom 2nd Jul 22
STL 0 +107 o8.0
PIT 0 -116 u8.0
CIN +125 o8.0
ATL -135 u8.0
PHI -109 o8.5
MIN +101 u8.5
CHW +158 o8.5
TEX -173 u8.5
MIL -114 o8.5
CHC +106 u8.5
AZ +134 o8.0
KC -146 u8.0
BOS -154 o10.0
COL +141 u10.0
HOU -137 o8.5
OAK +126 u8.5
LAA +141 o7.0
SEA -153 u7.0
SF +110 o8.5
LAD -119 u8.5
Final Jul 22
TB 1 +148 o8.5
NYY 9 -161 u8.5
SNP, Bally Sports Network

Pittsburgh @ St. Louis props

Busch Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Alec Burleson Total Hits Props • St. Louis

A. Burleson
left outfield LF • St. Louis
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-225
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-225
Projection Rating

This year, Alec Burleson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 13% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound. Alec Burleson has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences today. Alec Burleson really struggles to hit the ball hard. If you were to take the top 5% of his batted balls by exit velocity, their average (105.6 mph) rank him among MLB's worst: in the 22nd percentile since the start of last season. Checking in at the 13th percentile for Sprint Speed at 25.54 ft/sec this year, Alec Burleson is not very quick.

Alec Burleson

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

This year, Alec Burleson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 13% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound. Alec Burleson has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences today. Alec Burleson really struggles to hit the ball hard. If you were to take the top 5% of his batted balls by exit velocity, their average (105.6 mph) rank him among MLB's worst: in the 22nd percentile since the start of last season. Checking in at the 13th percentile for Sprint Speed at 25.54 ft/sec this year, Alec Burleson is not very quick.

Michael A. Taylor Total Hits Props • Pittsburgh

M. Taylor
center outfield CF • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Michael A. Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Michael A. Taylor has been unlucky this year, notching a .224 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .282 — a .058 disparity. Since the start of last season, Michael A. Taylor's 14.3% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 91st percentile among his peers. Michael A. Taylor's 96.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to study power) ranks in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

Michael A. Taylor

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Michael A. Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Michael A. Taylor has been unlucky this year, notching a .224 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .282 — a .058 disparity. Since the start of last season, Michael A. Taylor's 14.3% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 91st percentile among his peers. Michael A. Taylor's 96.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to study power) ranks in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

Jose Fermin Total Hits Props • St. Louis

J. Fermin
shortstop SS • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-159
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-159
Projection Rating

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Fermin will hold that advantage today. Jose Fermin has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .248 figure is considerably lower than his .335 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In notching a .285 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jose Fermin has performed in the 90th percentile.

Jose Fermin

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Fermin will hold that advantage today. Jose Fermin has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .248 figure is considerably lower than his .335 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In notching a .285 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jose Fermin has performed in the 90th percentile.

Jack Suwinski Total Hits Props • Pittsburgh

J. Suwinski
center outfield CF • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-145
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-145
Projection Rating

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Lance Lynn throws from, Jack Suwinski will have an advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jack Suwinski's true offensive ability to be a .317, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .067 disparity between that mark and his actual .250 wOBA. Jack Suwinski's 15.7% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 94th percentile since the start of last season. Jack Suwinski's maximum exit velocity (a reliable standard to study power) has been 114.7 mph since the start of last season, placing in the 90th percentile.

Jack Suwinski

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Lance Lynn throws from, Jack Suwinski will have an advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jack Suwinski's true offensive ability to be a .317, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .067 disparity between that mark and his actual .250 wOBA. Jack Suwinski's 15.7% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 94th percentile since the start of last season. Jack Suwinski's maximum exit velocity (a reliable standard to study power) has been 114.7 mph since the start of last season, placing in the 90th percentile.

Nolan Gorman Total Hits Props • St. Louis

N. Gorman
second base 2B • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-150
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-150
Projection Rating

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Nolan Gorman is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today.

Nolan Gorman

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Nolan Gorman is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today.

Oneil Cruz Total Hits Props • Pittsburgh

O. Cruz
shortstop SS • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-225
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-225
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Lance Lynn throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge today. When it comes to his batting average, Oneil Cruz has experienced some positive variance this year. His .248 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

Oneil Cruz

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Lance Lynn throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge today. When it comes to his batting average, Oneil Cruz has experienced some positive variance this year. His .248 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

Brendan Donovan Total Hits Props • St. Louis

B. Donovan
left outfield LF • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-225
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-225
Projection Rating

Brendan Donovan's batting average talent is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an advantage today. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Brendan Donovan will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Brendan Donovan

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Brendan Donovan's batting average talent is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an advantage today. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Brendan Donovan will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Edward Olivares Total Hits Props • Pittsburgh

E. Olivares
left outfield LF • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-225
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-225
Projection Rating

Edward Olivares's batting average skill is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Edward Olivares is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°.

Edward Olivares

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Edward Olivares's batting average skill is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Edward Olivares is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°.

Ivan Herrera Total Hits Props • St. Louis

I. Herrera
catcher C • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-186
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-186
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Ivan Herrera hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 11th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage in today's game.

Ivan Herrera

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Ivan Herrera hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 11th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage in today's game.

Masyn Winn Total Hits Props • St. Louis

M. Winn
shortstop SS • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-275
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-275
Projection Rating

Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Masyn Winn will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. With a .359 BABIP this year, Masyn Winn finds himself in the 95th percentile.

Masyn Winn

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Masyn Winn will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. With a .359 BABIP this year, Masyn Winn finds himself in the 95th percentile.

Ke'Bryan Hayes Total Hits Props • Pittsburgh

K. Hayes
third base 3B • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-275
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-275
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 85th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Ke'Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Ke'Bryan Hayes has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .241 figure is quite a bit lower than his .272 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Ke'Bryan Hayes's 92.1-mph average exit velocity ranks among the best in the league since the start of last season: 93rd percentile.

Ke'Bryan Hayes

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 85th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Ke'Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Ke'Bryan Hayes has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .241 figure is quite a bit lower than his .272 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Ke'Bryan Hayes's 92.1-mph average exit velocity ranks among the best in the league since the start of last season: 93rd percentile.

Nick Gonzales Total Hits Props • Pittsburgh

N. Gonzales
second base 2B • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-190
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-190
Projection Rating

Nick Gonzales's BABIP ability is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Nick Gonzales is very quick, ranking in the 91st percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.92 ft/sec this year. With a .319 BABIP since the start of last season, Nick Gonzales is positioned in the 79th percentile.

Nick Gonzales

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Nick Gonzales's BABIP ability is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Nick Gonzales is very quick, ranking in the 91st percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.92 ft/sec this year. With a .319 BABIP since the start of last season, Nick Gonzales is positioned in the 79th percentile.

Paul Goldschmidt Total Hits Props • St. Louis

P. Goldschmidt
first base 1B • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-250
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-250
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Paul Goldschmidt

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jared Triolo Total Hits Props • Pittsburgh

J. Triolo
third base 3B • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-205
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-205
Projection Rating

Jared Triolo's BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.279) provides evidence that Jared Triolo has had some very poor luck this year with his .260 actual wOBA. Jared Triolo grades out in the 95th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (52.4% rate since the start of last season). Jared Triolo is very toolsy, ranking in the 83rd percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.5 ft/sec this year.

Jared Triolo

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Jared Triolo's BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.279) provides evidence that Jared Triolo has had some very poor luck this year with his .260 actual wOBA. Jared Triolo grades out in the 95th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (52.4% rate since the start of last season). Jared Triolo is very toolsy, ranking in the 83rd percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.5 ft/sec this year.

Andrew McCutchen Total Hits Props • Pittsburgh

A. McCutchen
right outfield RF • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-205
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-205
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. With a .352 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Andrew McCutchen is ranked in the 82nd percentile for offensive skills.

Andrew McCutchen

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. With a .352 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Andrew McCutchen is ranked in the 82nd percentile for offensive skills.

Connor Joe Total Hits Props • Pittsburgh

C. Joe
first base 1B • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-210
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-210
Projection Rating

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Connor Joe ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Connor Joe is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Connor Joe has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .328 mark is a good deal higher than his .304 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Connor Joe's 16.3° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in the majors: 79th percentile.

Connor Joe

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Connor Joe ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Connor Joe is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Connor Joe has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .328 mark is a good deal higher than his .304 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Connor Joe's 16.3° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in the majors: 79th percentile.

Nolan Arenado Total Hits Props • St. Louis

N. Arenado
third base 3B • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-220
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-220
Projection Rating

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.282) suggests that Nolan Arenado has been lucky this year with his .308 actual wOBA.

Nolan Arenado

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.282) suggests that Nolan Arenado has been lucky this year with his .308 actual wOBA.

Bryan Reynolds Total Hits Props • Pittsburgh

B. Reynolds
left outfield LF • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-275
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-275
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Lance Lynn. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.331) suggests that Bryan Reynolds has experienced some negative variance this year with his .263 actual batting average.

Bryan Reynolds

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Lance Lynn. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.331) suggests that Bryan Reynolds has experienced some negative variance this year with his .263 actual batting average.

Rowdy Tellez Total Hits Props • Pittsburgh

R. Tellez
first base 1B • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-185
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-185
Projection Rating

Rowdy Tellez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Lance Lynn throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have the upper hand in today's game. Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Rowdy Tellez's speed has gotten better this year. His 23.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.39 ft/sec now.

Rowdy Tellez

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Rowdy Tellez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Lance Lynn throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have the upper hand in today's game. Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Rowdy Tellez's speed has gotten better this year. His 23.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.39 ft/sec now.

Pedro Pages Total Hits Props • St. Louis

P. Pages
catcher C • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-155
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-155
Projection Rating

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Pedro Pages hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's game.

Pedro Pages

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Pedro Pages hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's game.

Yasmani Grandal Total Hits Props • Pittsburgh

Y. Grandal
catcher C • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-170
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-170
Projection Rating

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Despite posting a .204 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yasmani Grandal has been unlucky given the .073 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .277.

Yasmani Grandal

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Despite posting a .204 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yasmani Grandal has been unlucky given the .073 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .277.

Matt Carpenter Total Hits Props • St. Louis

M. Carpenter
designated hitter DH • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
-130
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
-130
Projection Rating

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Matt Carpenter will have the upper hand in today's game. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 11th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Matt Carpenter will hold that advantage in today's game. Since the start of last season, Matt Carpenter's 11.2% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 80th percentile among his peers.

Matt Carpenter

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.6
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.6

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Matt Carpenter will have the upper hand in today's game. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 11th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Matt Carpenter will hold that advantage in today's game. Since the start of last season, Matt Carpenter's 11.2% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 80th percentile among his peers.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

Pages Related to This Topic

About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

Sports Betting Bankroll Management and ROI Guide

Weather Forecast