Pittsburgh @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Among all stadiums, Busch Stadium's RF dimensions are the 2nd-deepest. Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Bryan Reynolds will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.

This year, Alec Burleson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 13% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound. Alec Burleson has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences today. Alec Burleson really struggles to hit the ball hard. If you were to take the top 5% of his batted balls by exit velocity, their average (105.6 mph) rank him among MLB's worst: in the 22nd percentile since the start of last season. Checking in at the 13th percentile for Sprint Speed at 25.54 ft/sec this year, Alec Burleson is not very quick.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Michael A. Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Michael A. Taylor has been unlucky this year, notching a .224 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .282 — a .058 disparity. Since the start of last season, Michael A. Taylor's 14.3% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 91st percentile among his peers. Michael A. Taylor's 96.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to study power) ranks in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

Lance Lynn will hold the platoon advantage against Ke'Bryan Hayes in today's game. Today, Ke'Bryan Hayes is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.6% rate (98th percentile). Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Ke'Bryan Hayes will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Ke'Bryan Hayes's speed has decreased this season. His 27.11 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.44 ft/sec now.

Mitch Keller will hold the platoon advantage over Masyn Winn in today's matchup. Masyn Winn has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-deepest RF fences today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Masyn Winn's true offensive ability to be a .291, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .040 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .331 wOBA. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Masyn Winn ranks in the 7th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .268. Since the start of last season, Masyn Winn's 1.9% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 17th percentile among his peers.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Fermin will hold that advantage today. Jose Fermin has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .248 figure is considerably lower than his .335 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In notching a .285 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jose Fermin has performed in the 90th percentile.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Lance Lynn throws from, Jack Suwinski will have an advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jack Suwinski's true offensive ability to be a .317, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .067 disparity between that mark and his actual .250 wOBA. Jack Suwinski's 15.7% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 94th percentile since the start of last season. Jack Suwinski's maximum exit velocity (a reliable standard to study power) has been 114.7 mph since the start of last season, placing in the 90th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Nolan Gorman is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today.

Edward Olivares's batting average skill is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Edward Olivares is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Lance Lynn throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge today. When it comes to his batting average, Oneil Cruz has experienced some positive variance this year. His .248 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Ivan Herrera hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 11th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage in today's game.

Brendan Donovan's batting average talent is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an advantage today. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Brendan Donovan will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Connor Joe ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Connor Joe is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Connor Joe has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .328 mark is a good deal higher than his .304 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Connor Joe's 16.3° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in the majors: 79th percentile.

Jared Triolo's BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.279) provides evidence that Jared Triolo has had some very poor luck this year with his .260 actual wOBA. Jared Triolo grades out in the 95th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (52.4% rate since the start of last season). Jared Triolo is very toolsy, ranking in the 83rd percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.5 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. With a .352 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Andrew McCutchen is ranked in the 82nd percentile for offensive skills.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.282) suggests that Nolan Arenado has been lucky this year with his .308 actual wOBA.

Rowdy Tellez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Lance Lynn throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have the upper hand in today's game. Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Rowdy Tellez's speed has gotten better this year. His 23.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.39 ft/sec now.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Pedro Pages hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 12th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's game.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Despite posting a .204 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yasmani Grandal has been unlucky given the .073 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .277.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Matt Carpenter will have the upper hand in today's game. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 11th-worst out of every team playing today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Matt Carpenter will hold that advantage in today's game. Since the start of last season, Matt Carpenter's 11.2% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 80th percentile among his peers.