Detroit @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Cooper Criswell will hold the platoon advantage over Gio Urshela today... and it's a particular mismatch considering Criswell's huge platoon split. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gio Urshela today. Gio Urshela's quickness has declined this year. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.32 ft/sec now.

15% of the time that Matt Vierling has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Because of Cooper Criswell's huge platoon split, Matt Vierling will be at a tremendous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in this game. Matt Vierling will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Jarren Duran's 5.3% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 23rd percentile since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, Jarren Duran's flyball exit velocity (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 20th percentile at 90.3 mph. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs), Jarren Duran and his 11.7% rank in the 7th percentile since the start of last season.

21% of the time that Colt Keith has started against a northpaw this year, he has been pulled from the game early. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Colt Keith will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. With a .269 wOBA in the past two weeks' worth of games, Colt Keith has been struggling at the plate.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Rafael Devers's true offensive ability to be a .357, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .021 disparity between that figure and his actual .378 wOBA. Rafael Devers is in the 14th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (38.5% rate since the start of last season).

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Wenceel Perez in today's matchup. Despite posting a .331 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Wenceel Perez has experienced some positive variance given the .027 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .304.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 34%. Riley Greene will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vaughn Grissom in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Vaughn Grissom has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. Vaughn Grissom will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences in the league. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage over Reese Olson in today's matchup. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ceddanne Rafaela has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Connor Wong's BABIP talent is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Connor Wong is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences in the league. Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage over Reese Olson in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Reese McGuire will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Despite posting a .268 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Spencer Torkelson has had some very poor luck given the .056 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324. Spencer Torkelson has put up a .350 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Enmanuel Valdez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Enmanuel Valdez will have the handedness advantage over Reese Olson in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jake Rogers pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Since the start of last season, Jake Rogers's 12% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 81st percentile among his peers. Since the start of last season, Jake Rogers's flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 92nd percentile at 95.5 mph. Jake Rogers is in the 96th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (20.2% rate since the start of last season).

Fenway Park grades out as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Javier Baez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.283) may lead us to conclude that Javier Baez has suffered from bad luck this year with his .194 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Because of Cooper Criswell's huge platoon split, Zach McKinstry will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. As it relates to his batting average, Zach McKinstry has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .223 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .260. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Zach McKinstry ranks in the 88th percentile with a 17.7° launch angle, which is one of the most flyball-inducing angles in MLB.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. David Hamilton will have the handedness advantage over Reese Olson in today's game. David Hamilton has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. David Hamilton will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Dominic Smith is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Dominic Smith will hold the platoon advantage against Reese Olson today. Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

Mark Canha has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.