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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 13, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.00 |
+114 
|
o9.0 -105 
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
5.43 |
-125 
|
u9.5 -110 
|
-1.5 +160 
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 8-1 in Painters last 9 starts on grass.
- Over is 7-1 in Painters last 8 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Painters last 9 starts overall.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in Holmes' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 13-1-1 in Holmes' last 15 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in Holmes' last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+176)
o0.5+176
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.67 |
+158
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -140
|
|
5.52 |
-175
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +120
|
NY Mets
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Scotts last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Mets are 5-0 in Scotts last 5 starts as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.88 |
+118
|
o9.0 -115
|
+1.5 -175 
|
|
5.15 |
-130
|
u9.5 -115
|
-1.5 +160
|
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Angels last 4 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Irvins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 vs. American League West.
- Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Jose Siri o0.5 Total RBIs (+270)
o0.5+270
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.06 |
+130
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.28 |
-148 
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +150
|
Baltimore
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Rogers' last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-0 in Rogers' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Toronto
- Over is 5-0 in Ceases last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Ceases last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Jackson Holliday o0.5 Total RBIs (+346)
o0.5+346
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.74 |
+120
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.34 |
-124
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +162
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Astros last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 5-0 in Wesneskis last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Peraltas last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
o1.5+195
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.47 |
-135
|
o8.0 -118
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
3.77 |
+120 
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -140
|
LA Dodgers
- Over is 7-0 in Wrobleskis last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Wrobleskis last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Dodgers are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 games following a win.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 8-0 in Marlins last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Top Projection
Max Muncy u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
u1.5-190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.41 |
+110
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.40 |
-124
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +165
|
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Prielipps last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Prielipps last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.96 |
+169
|
o8.0 -110
|
+3.5 -345
|
|
4.10 |
-195
|
u8.5 -125
|
-3.5 +270
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 5-0 in Burns' last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 5-0 in Burns' last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 9-1 in Reds last 10 vs. National League Central.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
-115
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +142
|
|
4.41 |
+110
|
u9.0 -120
|
+1.5 -160
|
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 4-0 in Newcombs last 4 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Newcombs last 4 starts.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 7-2-1 in White Sox last 10 games as a road favorite.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in McGreevys last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in McGreevys last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0-1 in McGreevys last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Colson Montgomery o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+197
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.44 |
+148
|
o6.0 -177
|
+2.5 -278
|
|
3.92 |
-140
|
u7.0 -105
|
-2.5 +220
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Chandlers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 during game 3 of a series.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in Boyds last 8 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Boyds last 9 home starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Ian Happ o0.5 Total RBIs (+244)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.93 |
+166
|
o7.0 -127
|
+2.5 -250
|
|
4.37 |
-185
|
u7.5 -120
|
-2.5 +200
|
Kansas City
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 overall.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 on grass.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Camerons last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Tolles last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games following a win.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.60 |
-130
|
o9.0 -112
|
+1.5 -286
|
|
5.48 |
+116
|
u9.5 -125
|
-1.5 +225
|
Seattle
- Over is 5-0-1 in Millers last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 road starts.
Athletics
- are 5-0 in Lopezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 6-0 in Lopezs last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Lopezs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 9-1 in last 10 vs. American League West.
Top Projection
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
o1.5+132
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.72 |
+115
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.87 |
-130
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +164
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Rangers last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rangers last 5 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Arizona
- Under is 3-0-2 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 7-0 in Rodriguezs last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Gabriel Moreno o0.5 Total RBIs (+207)
o0.5+207
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
-125
|
o7.5 +100
|
+1.5 -275
|
|
3.62 |
+110
|
u8.5 -177
|
-1.5 +215
|
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 overall.
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 vs. National League West.
- Over is 5-0 in Webbs last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+194)
o0.5+194
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.76 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2-1 in White Sox last 10 games as a road favorite.
- White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. American League Central.
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 6-1 in Guardians last 7 games as an underdog.
- Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.12 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.35 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 home starts.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lodolos last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Lodolos last 8 starts as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.67 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.13 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in Sorianos last 7 starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.65 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.57 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Baltimore
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as a road favorite.
NY Mets
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.37 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.29 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a favorite.
- Twins are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.63 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.83 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Atlanta
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 10-2 in Braves last 12 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 12-3-1 in Braves last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-2 in Cubs last 9 home games.
- Over is 7-2 in Cubs last 9 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.32 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 overall.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.78 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
5.31 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 overall.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.14 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.87 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Over is 6-0 in Mariners last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Mariners last 9 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
LA Angels
- Under is 8-1-1 in Angels last 10 vs. American League West.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.13 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.98 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 on grass.
Arizona
- Under is 7-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 9 overall.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 9 on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
PHI
@
ATL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Matt Olson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+270)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Matt Olson is on the verge of a breakout.
He has posted a 22.2% barrel rate and 97.3 mile per hour average exit velocity against fastballs and sliders thrown by righties the past 25 games. Those just happen to be Andrew Painter’s primary pitches against lefties.
Zooming out, Olson's season ISO is .329 against fastballs and .629 against the slider. Downright absurd.
Total
u9.5 (-129)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Under is appealing and playable to 59%.
Grant Holmes' barrel rate is trending in the right direction – 5.6% the past month vs. 8.5% this season – and the Philadelphia Phillies are struggling to hit for power, an encouraging combination.
Andrew Painter has quietly pitched to a 3.55 xERA the last 30 days. He’s in a much better spot than early in the year, and should avoid major damage.
NYM
@
NYY
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Aaron Judge o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-117)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Aaron Judge’s hits, runs and RBI prop is a rare opportunity to grab the Yankees captain at a reasonable price. Judge has surpassed this prop in more than 57% of his 373 elite ratings over the last three seasons, while going over 2.5 nearly 46% of the time and homering almost 30%. He draws Mets right-hander Christian Scott, who has struggled against right-handed hitters on the road, allowing a .294 batting average, .412 SLG and .366 wOBA. Judge has recorded three hits in four games since returning from injury and continues to generate plenty of hard contact. The play is worth targeting at -120 or better.
Total Home Runs
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total Home Runs (+266)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Aaron Judge stands out as the top home run target against Christian Scott and the Mets. Scott has struggled more against right-handed hitters, allowing them to hit .294 with a .412 SLG and .366 wOBA on the road this season. Judge enters today with an elite Batters-Box rating, a spot where he homers nearly 30% of the time. While he has yet to leave the yard since returning from injury, his recent contact has been encouraging. Each of his last five balls in play has left the bat at 93 MPH or harder, including three at 100.3 MPH or better. The bleachers are calling.
LAA
@
WAS
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:35 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Abimelec Ortiz o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+108)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Grayson Rodriguez has struggled mightily over his last three starts, posting a 5.74 ERA and 1.72 WHIP while left-handed hitters have continued to crush him. Lefties are generating a hard-hit rate above 52%, a 10.5% barrel rate and a 68.4% elevation rate during that stretch. That creates an appealing matchup for Washington Nationals first baseman Abimelec Ortiz, who enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box and covers nearly 85% of Rodriguez’s arsenal. Ortiz has also maintained a .719 SLG, .407 ISO, 50%+ hard-hit rate and 16% barrel rate over his last 10 games. He is in an excellent spot against Rodriguez.
Total Home Runs
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total Home Runs (+390)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
It's not a bad day for dingers in Washington with Grayson Rodriguez on the bump. He has the third-worst HR/9 over the last two seasons among all starters today and has given up multiple homers in back-to-back starts. It's a big-total game that could see the Nats' healthy offense stack some runs. The best value on the home side is CJ Abrams at 20.4%, with a fair probability of 23.5%. He's slugging .461 in the second half and leads the team with 10 dingers. He got over the toughest one to get, his 30th, and is looking to finish a breakout season with a great home-run matchup at home this afternoon. James Wood and CJ Abrams should not be four percentage points apart in home-run pricing.
BAL
@
TOR
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:37 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+305)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Strikeouts Thrown
Dylan Cease o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+110)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
HOU
@
TB
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Daulton Varsho u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 6th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Daulton Varsho is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.. The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Out of every team in action today, the best infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.. Daulton Varsho is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
Total Bases
Taylor Trammell u1.5 Total Bases (-325)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Trammell in the 9th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Taylor Trammell is penciled in 9th in the lineup today.. The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Out of every team in action today, the best infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.. Taylor Trammell will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.
LAD
@
MIA
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Kyle Tucker u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects LoanDepot Park as the worst ballpark in the game for LHB home runs.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Kyle Tucker pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 76th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball hitters like Kyle Tucker are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Eury Perez.
Total RBIs
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total RBIs (+186)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his batting average talent, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 13th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. Batting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, Freddie Freeman will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Posting a .273 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Freddie Freeman finds himself in the 80th percentile.. Posting a .363 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Freddie Freeman has performed in the 91st percentile.
CLE
@
MIN
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Trevor Larnach u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Target Field ranks as the #25 field in Major League Baseball for lefty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-deepest CF fences among all parks are found in Target Field.. In the league, the 5th-tallest average fence height are at Target Field.. The weather report predicts the most favorable pitching conditions of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. In the past week's worth of games, Trevor Larnach's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%.
Total Bases
Ryan Jeffers o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Ryan Jeffers will hold that advantage today.. Over the last 7 days, Ryan Jeffers's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.5% up to 18.2%.
CIN
@
MIL
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Tyler Stephenson o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 86th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Tyler Stephenson is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. American Family Field ranks as the #8 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. American Family Field has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.
Total Bases
Jackson Chourio o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average talent, Jackson Chourio is projected as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Chourio is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. American Family Field ranks as the #8 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. American Family Field has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.
CHW
@
STL
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+233)
Projection 0.45
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Nolan Gorman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against David Sandlin today.. Nolan Gorman will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.. Over the past 7 days, Nolan Gorman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.6% up to 21.4%.
Total Bases
Brenton Doyle o1.5 Total Bases (+208)
Projection 1.33
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Brenton Doyle has a ton of pop (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael McGreevy is a pitch-to-contact type (17th percentile K%) — great news for Doyle.. Brenton Doyle hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
PIT
@
CHC
Sun, Sep 13 • 2:20 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-117)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been one of MLB’s most dangerous hitters all season, and he finds himself in a favorable spot against Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler. Over his last 30 at-bats against righties, Crow-Armstrong is batting .320 with a .720 SLG and 1.120 OPS, while generating a nearly 58% hard-hit rate and 21.1% barrel rate. Chandler has also struggled against left-handed hitters, who own a .300 xBA, .487 xSLG and .284 ISO over his last 60 faced. With Crow-Armstrong’s recent production and matchup working in his favor, there is value on his hits, runs and RBI prop at -120 or better.
Total Home Runs
Alex Bregman o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Tom Oldfield
Betting Analyst
Target Alex Bregman's scorching September form - he’s gone 13-for-37 this month, with two dingers and a 1.039 OPS.
With one hit off Chandler in a small sample size, and extra-base blasts off a couple of Pittsburgh relievers, Bregman offers great value here, and he’s smashed 18 of his 25 homers off righties.
KC
@
BOS
Sun, Sep 13 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Isaac Collins o1.5 Total Bases (+230)
Projection 1.28
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in MLB for run-scoring.. The shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park.. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity of all games on the slate today (94%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Isaac Collins will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Payton Tolle today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Isaac Collins's true offensive talent to be a .313, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .014 deviation between that mark and his actual .299 wOBA.
Total Hits
Jahmai Jones u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which tends to lead to less offense.. Among every team playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.. There has been a significant decline in Jahmai Jones's launch angle from last year's 19.7° to 16° this season.
SEA
@
ATH
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total Home Runs (+267)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
It's not every day you get the most probable home run on the board at a +EV price, but that's what's happening today with Cal Raleigh at a fair probability of 33%. I think we can thank the NFL slate for this sneaky price. It's the best setting in baseball for dingers today, and Cal Raleigh is making up for lost time with nine home runs over the last 30 days and a top-20 slugging percentage of .628. He's also owned Jacob Lopez, with three home runs in five plate appearances. Do you hear that? That's the sound of Lopez's knees knocking together at the thought of facing Raleigh today.
Total Home Runs
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+318)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Shea Langeliers is back in the Athletics' lineup, and at around 24% today, it's a great spot to back him to go yard with a fair probability of 28.6%. It's a Sutter Health Park game, which is always good for the taters. It's no surprise it's the best park today for home runs by a wide margin, per Ball Park Pal. At home, Langeliers slugs 100 points better than he does on the road. The next green check is the pitching matchup. Bryce Miller has the worst HR/9 over the last two seasons among all starters today and is not in great form. In the second half of this year, he owns the 13th-worst HR/9 among MLB starters and the 28th-worst HR/FB rate. Miller hasn't gotten to 15 outs in four straight starts.
TEX
@
AZ
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:10 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-119)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
This should be a good old-fashioned pitcher’s duel, as both Quantrill and Rodriguez have been lights out over their last five outings. Quantrill’s numbers are above, but Rodriguez has posted a 1.82 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and allowed just a 2.44% barrel rate during that span.
Plus, with how cold the Diamondbacks’ bats have been, the Rangers will likely be the only team producing runs. Asking for nine runs in this spot feels like a lot.
Total Home Runs
Justin Foscue o0.5 Total Home Runs (+630)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Justin Foscue is the preferred look here, with Jake Burger serving as a strong replacement option. Foscue has been excellent against left-handed pitching this season, posting a .614 SLG and .291 ISO while maintaining a 31.9% ground-ball rate. Batters-Box also has the 27-year-old covering nearly 80% of Rodriguez’s pitch mix, giving him strong coverage against what the pitcher is expected to throw. Given how well Foscue has been seeing the ball against southpaws, he stands out as one of the best home run looks in this matchup.
SD
@
SF
Sun, Sep 13 • 7:20 PM ET
Hits Allowed
Logan Webb o5.5 Hits Allowed (-118)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
As mentioned above, Giants starter Logan Webb has been getting lit up as of late. In his last three starts, he owns a 7.71 ERA and 1.57 WHIP while allowing a 46.51% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters.
On the other side, the Padres are red hot, owning a sub-150 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .878 OPS and .202 ISO.
In Webb's 26 outings, he has allowed over this number in 58% of those games. With how hot the Padres have been, they should easily get over 5.5 hits.
Total Bases
Jackson Merrill o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Jackson Merrill is in an excellent spot to keep his hot stretch at the plate going against Logan Webb and the Giants. Over his last 10 games, Merrill owns a hard-hit rate above 66%, a near-20% barrel rate, .711 SLG, .817 xSLG and .369 ISO. Meanwhile, Webb has struggled against left-handed hitters, with his last 30 lefties posting a 55% hard-hit rate, 15% barrel rate, .454 xBA and .827 xSLG. With Merrill ranking as the highest-rated Padre and owning one of the hottest bats in the lineup, the young slugger has a favorable matchup to produce again.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
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If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
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It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
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