Colorado @ Milwaukee Picks & Props

Adrian Houser will hold the platoon advantage over Ezequiel Tovar today. Ezequiel Tovar has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 7th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among every team on the slate today. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ezequiel Tovar in today's game. Ezequiel Tovar has recorded a .303 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 21st percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense grades out as the strongest out of every team today. Christian Yelich has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.3-mph dropping to 81.6-mph in the past week's worth of games. In the past 7 days, Christian Yelich's 5.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13%.

Chris Flexen will hold the platoon advantage against William Contreras in today's matchup. The Colorado Rockies outfield defense grades out as the strongest out of every team today. William Contreras's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 98.5-mph mark last year has lowered to 95.2-mph. William Contreras's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (7.2°) is significantly worse than his 13° angle last season. In terms of his batting average, William Contreras has had positive variance on his side this year. His .281 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .264.

Sal Frelick's batting average skill is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Sal Frelick is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in American Family Field. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Joey Wiemer hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Joey Wiemer will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Joey Wiemer has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.7-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 93.6-mph.

Michael Toglia is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Toglia's true offensive skill to be a .285, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .047 gap between that figure and his actual .238 wOBA.

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Elehuris Montero hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Ryan McMahon is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in American Family Field. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Ryan McMahon will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Adrian Houser in today's game.

Nolan Jones's BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nolan Jones is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in American Family Field. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in American Family Field. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). a 1.73 K/BB rate this year, Carlos Santana has displayed favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 83rd percentile.

Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jurickson Profar has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph to 89.9-mph in the last two weeks. Compared to last season, Jurickson Profar has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.4% to 16.9% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Harold Castro in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Harold Castro will hold the platoon advantage against Adrian Houser today. Harold Castro hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Willy Adames is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in American Family Field. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Brice Turang will have the handedness advantage over Chris Flexen today. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brice Turang can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Brice Turang hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Tyrone Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Tyrone Taylor will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.291) suggests that Tyrone Taylor has suffered from bad luck this year with his .225 actual wOBA.

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Austin Wynns has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 85.9-mph average to last year's 83.7-mph mark.

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Andruw Monasterio will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. In the past week's worth of games, Andruw Monasterio's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.7% up to 12.5%. Andruw Monasterio has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 89.9-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 87.9-mph EV.

Brendan Rodgers has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Elias Diaz has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.