Houston @ New York Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 9th-worst field in the game for RHB batting average. Yankee Stadium has the 5th-deepest CF fences in the league. Yankee Stadium's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to less offense. Jeremy Pena will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. Jeremy Pena's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (7.9°) is considerably worse than his 12.5° angle last season.

Billy McKinney is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Billy McKinney will have the handedness advantage against Justin Verlander today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Billy McKinney can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Billy McKinney will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.210) suggests that Billy McKinney has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .183 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 9th-worst field in the game for RHB batting average. Yankee Stadium's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to less offense. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 98th percentile) and and will have to hit them out towards the league's 7th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Altuve in today's matchup. Jose Altuve has been lucky this year, putting up a .385 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .356 — a .029 discrepancy.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Aaron Judge is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Aaron Judge will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Aaron Judge has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 31.1% seasonal rate to 40% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Giancarlo Stanton in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Giancarlo Stanton will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Giancarlo Stanton has been unlucky this year, posting a .303 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .359 — a .056 gap.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Anthony Volpe will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Anthony Volpe has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.9-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.4-mph figure. Anthony Volpe's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 47.1% on the season to 54.5% over the last week. In terms of his batting average, Anthony Volpe has had some very poor luck this year. His .210 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .255.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Chas McCormick ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Chas McCormick will hold the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes in today's matchup. Chas McCormick has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Chas McCormick has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100.7-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal figure of 95.3-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Abreu in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Jose Abreu will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes today. Jose Abreu has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 7.2% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the past 7 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jose Abreu's true offensive talent to be a .338, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .049 difference between that figure and his actual .289 wOBA.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in the game. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Yordan Alvarez stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Yordan Alvarez's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (17°) is quite a bit better than his 12.8° figure last year.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Martin Maldonado will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes today. Martin Maldonado's launch angle this season (17.3°) is considerably better than his 14.1° angle last season. Martin Maldonado's footspeed has increased this season. His 22.31 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 22.81 ft/sec now. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Martin Maldonado's true offensive talent to be a .274, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .032 deviation between that figure and his actual .242 wOBA.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 15th-best batter in the league. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.8°, Kyle Tucker has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 25.7° figure in the past 7 days.

Mauricio Dubon's batting average skill is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Mauricio Dubon will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes in today's matchup. Mauricio Dubon has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 87.1-mph average to last year's 84.6-mph EV. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.287) may lead us to conclude that Mauricio Dubon has had some very poor luck this year with his .263 actual batting average.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Alex Bregman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes today. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.7°, Alex Bregman has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 26.8° figure over the last 14 days.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Harrison Bader will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Harrison Bader has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 85.7-mph average to last year's 83.4-mph average. In the past week, Harrison Bader's 35.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Gleyber Torres is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Gleyber Torres has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Gleyber Torres will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects DJ LeMahieu in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. DJ LeMahieu is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. DJ LeMahieu has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and DJ LeMahieu will hold that advantage in today's game.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Grae Kessinger will hold the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes in today's matchup.

Jake Bauers is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Jake Bauers will have the handedness advantage against Justin Verlander today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Bauers stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Jake Bauers will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Ben Rortvedt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Verlander in today's game. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ben Rortvedt has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Ben Rortvedt will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Corey Julks has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.