Chicago @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Mike Tauchman has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest LF fences today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team on the slate today. Mike Tauchman will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. Mike Tauchman has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 7.3% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last week. Despite posting a .325 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mike Tauchman has been lucky given the .020 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .305.

Paul Goldschmidt has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of every team on the slate today. Paul Goldschmidt has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.3-mph dropping to 86.2-mph in the past week. Compared to his seasonal figure of 13.2°, Paul Goldschmidt has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (9.6°) in the last two weeks' worth of games. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 16% to 12.6%.

Miles Mikolas will have the handedness advantage over Nico Hoerner in today's game. Nico Hoerner has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team on the slate today. Nico Hoerner will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Nico Hoerner's exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 87.1-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 77.8-mph in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 19th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Cody Bellinger in today's game. Cody Bellinger's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 89.4-mph figure last year has dropped to 87.1-mph. Cody Bellinger has been lucky this year, notching a .382 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .325 — a .057 gap.

Ian Happ has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ian Happ today. Ian Happ has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph dropping to 84.3-mph over the past 7 days. Over the last week, Ian Happ's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 99°. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brendan Donovan stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Brendan Donovan will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 99°. Christopher Morel has notched a .379 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 94th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Dylan Carlson ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 99°. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Justin Steele. Dylan Carlson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 16.5% to 19.9%.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 99°. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Hitters such as Nolan Gorman with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Justin Steele who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Nolan Gorman will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 99°. Taylor Motter will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Steele in today's matchup. Taylor Motter will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miles Mastrobuoni in the 83rd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 99°. Miles Mastrobuoni will hold the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas today. Miles Mastrobuoni has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 3.2% seasonal rate to 25% over the past week. Miles Mastrobuoni has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 102.4-mph average over the last week to his seasonal figure of 94.7-mph.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 99°. Yan Gomes hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Yan Gomes has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.3-mph average to last year's 85.1-mph average. Yan Gomes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 15.4% to 20.3%.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 99°. Nolan Arenado will have the handedness advantage over Justin Steele in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Nolan Arenado tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Justin Steele. Nolan Arenado will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Dansby Swanson's BABIP skill is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 99°. Dansby Swanson's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 95.3-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 92.9-mph in the last week's worth of games. Over the past week, Dansby Swanson's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.6%. Sporting a .355 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Dansby Swanson grades out in the 83rd percentile for hitting ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 99°. Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Despite posting a .325 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Seiya Suzuki has been unlucky given the .034 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .359.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 98°. Paul DeJong will hold the platoon advantage against Justin Steele in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Paul DeJong are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Justin Steele. Paul DeJong will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 99°. Willson Contreras will hold the platoon advantage against Justin Steele in today's game. Willson Contreras will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 99°. Jordan Walker will have the handedness advantage against Justin Steele in today's game. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's game.

Andrew Knizner has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Tyler O'Neill has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.