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Boston @ Baltimore preview

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Last Meeting ( Sep 10, 2014 ) Baltimore 10, Boston 6


The Baltimore Orioles already have clinched the American League East, ending the Boston Red Sox’s tenure as reigning champs of the division. The Orioles attempt to take advantage of the lowly Red Sox en route to the top overall record in the AL when they host the opener of a three-game series on Friday. Baltimore is chasing the Los Angeles Angels for the top record in the AL and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Orioles are balancing that goal with the need to keep veteran players healthy down the stretch, and Adam Jones is likely to get the day off Friday after Nick Markakis sat out on Wednesday. Boston is in full-on evaluation mode and rookies like Rusney Castillo, Mookie Betts and Christian Vazquez are getting opportunities to lock up spots on the 2015 roster. Castillo, a free agent from Cuba who was signed to a $72.5 million contract, made his major-league debut in Pittsburgh on Wednesday but did not start the following day as Boston gave another rookie, Jackie Bradley Jr., a chance to get some at-bats while patrolling center field.

TV:
7:05 p.m. ET, NESN (Boston), MASN (Baltimore)

PITCHING MATCHUP:
Red Sox RH Allen Webster (4-3, 6.02 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Kevin Gausman (7-7, 3.57)

Webster is one of a handful of young pitchers trying to earn a spot in Boston’s 2015 rotation and is coming off his strongest start in over a month. The 24-year-old held Kansas City to two runs and four hits in six innings to earn the win on Sept. 12. Webster issued only one walk in that turn, the first time he surrendered fewer than two free passes since being recalled on July 27.

Gausman is trying to lock up a rotation spot as well, although he is eyeing a shot at an October start as opposed to next April. The LSU product went seven scoreless innings against the New York Yankees last Friday, yielding seven hits and striking out seven without factoring in the decision. Gausman has made five career appearances – two starts – against the Red Sox, going 1-0 with a total of three runs allowed and 19 strikeouts in 15 frames.

WALK-OFFS


1. Red Sox DH David Ortiz needs to drive in one more run to become the first player in franchise history with eight seasons of 30 home runs and 100 RBIs.

2. Baltimore LF Nelson Cruz, who leads the league with 39 home runs, has not gone deep since Sept. 7.

3. Bradley is 1-for-27 since being recalled from Triple-A Pawtucket.

PREDICTION: Orioles 6, Red Sox 2

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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