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New York @ Miami preview

Marlins Park

Last Meeting ( Jun 19, 2014 ) NY Mets 1, Miami 0



The Miami Marlins have lost a dominant home-field edge over the past month and can drop below .500 overall for the first time since April 30 when they continue a four-game series with the visiting New York Mets on Friday night. Miami suffered a 1-0 setback to the Mets on Thursday to lose for the 10th time in 15 home games after starting the season 19-6 at Marlins Park. The Marlins have scored once in back-to-back losses to fall to 2-5 on their 10-game homestand.

New York put an end to an eight-game road losing streak at St. Louis on Wednesday and now is looking to win three in a row for the first time since May 31-June 2. The Mets have managed to split their last six games despite scoring a total of 11 runs in that span. David Wright provided the only offense with a solo homer in Thursday's victory, extending his hitting streak to four games following a disastrous 12-game stretch in which he was 2-for-39.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, SNY (New York), FSN Florida (Miami)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mets RH Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-0, 2.81 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Henderson Alvarez (3-3, 2.56)

Matsuzaka went one inning in his last start after exiting with a stomach issue but came back to toss a scoreless frame in relief at St. Louis on Tuesday. He has made only four starts in his 21 appearances this season and the best one came against Milwaukee on June 10, when he permitted one run on three hits over six innings. He had a rocky relief outing at the Marlins on May 5, giving up three runs and not retiring a batter.

Henderson gave the Marlins a scare when he strained his left hip at the Chicago Cubs on June 8, but he bounced back to hold Pittsburgh to two runs over seven innings last time out. Alvarez, who has inherited the role of ace following Jose Fernandez's injury, is 1-0 in his last five starts despite giving up three runs in that span. His last outing against the Mets was a game: a six-hit shutout at home on May 6.

WALK-OFFS

1. Marlins RHP Kevin Gregg pitched a scoreless ninth in his season debut Thursday. He notched 61 saves with Miami in 2007-08.

2. Wright is batting .319 in 164 career games versus Miami.

3. Marlins 3B Casey McGehee has hit safely in 13 of his last 14 games.

PREDICTION: Marlins 4, Mets 2

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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