The United States men’s national team will host an international friendly on Saturday as they welcome Slovenia to Toyota Field in San Antonio. Our soccer betting odds have the Yanks as clear favorites to come out on top.
The friendly comes outside of an international window, so Gregg Berhalter has called up a fairly experimental squad for this match. The final preparation ahead of the CONCACAF Nations League semifinal in March sees a side made up of domestic-based players, some of whom could feature at the Summer Olympics in Paris.
For Slovenia, manager Matjaz Kek has to be thrilled with what his team has achieved over the past year. He’s guided them to Euro 2024, reaching a major tournament for the first time since the 2010 World Cup. Slovenia drew 2-2 with the Americans in that tournament, and Kek will hope to lead his side to their first-ever win over the Yanks.
Our USA vs. Slovenia international friendly picks and predictions for January 20 explain why having so many new faces on both sides may lead to a fairly boring matchup for the fans.
USA vs Slovenia best odds
 USA |
 Slovenia |
|
|---|---|---|
| -148 | Moneyline | +370 |
| +254 | Draw | 254 |
| Over 2.5 (-105) | Total | Under 2.5 (-139) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on January 19, 2024.
USA vs Slovenia picks and predictions
The January camp is often a time for experimenting and bringing in fresh talent, but this USMNT squad is taking that to another level. Of the 25 players called to camp by Berhalter, only eight have been capped at the senior level. One player even has less than 700 minutes played in MLS.
It’s a squad that is compiled with an eye toward the 2024 Olympic team, which aside from three exempt spots will be composed of Under-23 players. That’s why there are only a few “senior” players on the roster, such as Miles Robinson and Shaq Moore in the camp.
Saturday’s fixture is more about seeing how certain players perform both as individuals and within the group, and less about the result. That means you're probably going to see a fair amount of miscues in attack.
It’s typical for these types of fixtures, where players are not as familiar with one another’s playstyles and lack the history of knowing who will run where and how a player likes to receive the ball.
But it’s not just the home team dealing with these types of issues. Slovenia called 21 players into their camp, and only five of those players have been capped. Whoever starts in goal will receive his first cap for the national team, as all three keepers have yet to do so.
What Kek does have is a group of players who know how to play together. Four of his players come from the top team in the Slovenian league, including two defenders. Slovenia’s a side that wins with defense, and having familiarity in the back line is an advantage in that area.
Berhalter’s teams struggle at full strength to break down defensive-minded teams, and doing so here won’t be easy with so many new faces. However, he’s been setting his teams up well defensively, having kept a clean sheet in four of their last five on home soil.
That means we’re likely in for a match with very little scoring. The Yanks are also seeking their first win over a European side since 2018, having gone five straight without achieving that feat. However, those four clean sheets I mentioned all came in victories. I’m not sure they get the win here, but I don’t see them losing either.
Under 2.5 is a bit too juicy for my taste, and at -589 odds, there’s no way I’d bet the USA/draw double chance straight up. That’s why I love TonyBet allowing me to parlay a USA/draw double chance with the Under 2.5 goals at plus odds.
It’s not only a play with a strong likelihood of hitting, but also provides one of the best values on the board.
My best bet: USA/draw double chance and Under 2.5 combo (+108 at TonyBet)
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USA vs Slovenia side and Over/Under analysis
The Americans are favored to win the match with nearly every book offering -150 odds on the 3-way line. The draw is available for as much as +270, while a Slovenia win pays up to +400.
I think there’s value to be had on the draw. The implied odds at that price are 27.03%, and I’ve got the odds of a draw as better than 30%.
Believe it or not, the Yanks don’t always come away with wins in these January camps. They lost 2-1 to Serbia last season, conceding goals in the two minutes either side of halftime. A few days later, they drew 0-0 with Colombia.
The total of 2.5 goals sees the Under listed between -130 to -135 at most books, with the Over closer to even money. Slovenia is a strong defensive side, and the lack of cohesion in attack for both sides should keep the goals at a minimum here.
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USA vs Slovenia game info
| Location: | Toyota Field, San Antonio, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, January 20, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fubo Sports |
| Weather: | 43F, 10-15 mph winds, 25% humidity, 0% POP |
USA vs Slovenia key injuries
USA: Jackson Ragen D (Out).
Slovenia: Jaka Bijol M (Out).
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