USA vs Guatemala Predictions, Picks & Odds for Wednesday's Gold Cup Semifinal Match

The United States will look to secure a place in the 2025 Gold Cup final when they face off with Guatemala on Wednesday night.

The Americans survived a penalty shootout with Costa Rica behind the heroics of goalkeeper Matt Freese, whose three saves were crucial in securing the win. Guatemala stunned 10-men Canada with a penalty shootout win of their own, and reached the semifinals of the Gold Cup for the first time in their history.

The Americans will see plenty of set piece opportunities, and I explain how that provides a betting angle in my USA vs. Guatemala predictions and free betting picks for Wednesday, July 2. 

USA vs Guatemala picks and predictions

My USA vs Guatemala best bet: USA Over 6.5 corners (+100 at DraftKings)

Guatemala are not a side built to go toe-to-toe with the United States. They lack the depth, pace, and skill to try to beat the Americans in an open match.

After all, Canada enjoyed 55% possession against Guatemala in the first half, when they had a full complement of players. The Canadians pinned the Central American side back, registering seven corners prior to the break. 

Guatemala coughed up four corners either side of halftime to lowly Guadeloupe in the final match of the group stage as well. That followed a match where Panama enjoyed 68% possession and attempted seven set pieces from the corner flag.

For the United States, it’s likely to be a similar situation. The Americans are going to try to pick their way through a low defensive block, with their opponent throwing bodies at every shot and pass to block them.

And a high volume of blocks tends to lead to a high volume of corner kicks. The Yanks had nine corner kicks against Costa Rica, six against Haiti, and 10 against Trinidad and Tobago. Only Saudi Arabia, who played more of a high line in defense, held them to a lower total.

Guatemala will want to limit this match to a scoreless draw, or hope to poach a goal from a counter-attack. They’ll be desperate to defend their goal, while the hosts will be looking for any possible way through their back line.

Even money for seven or more corners is terrific value, and only DraftKings is offering it. I’d bet this prop as low as -115, should it move prior to kickoff. 

USA vs Guatemala same-game parlay (SGP)

USA Over 6.5 corners

Malik Tillman 3+ shots

Under 4 goals

+400 at bet365

Malik Tillman attempted four shots in regulation against Costa Rica, including a penalty that he put off the post. That follows a performance against Haiti where he attempted three shots.

Tillman has shown a propensity to shoot early and often in this competition against teams that sit back, and he’s America’s hottest player at the moment. If Guatemala are going to sit back, then getting three looks to fire from distance won’t be difficult for him to achieve.

Three of Guatemala’s four matches so far have seen two or fewer goals scored. And the Americans have had two matches with three or fewer goals thus far, although a 5-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago to open the tournament showed they can pour on the goals.

That said, this match should be cagey. Costa Rica presented a much larger threat going forward than Guatemala will, and this match has the feel of a 2-1 or 3-0 final for the Americans. They won’t want to take risks if they get up by multiple goals and I can see them sitting back and securing the win.

USA vs Guatemala odds

USA vs Guatemala live odds

Odds courtesy of bet365.

USA vs Guatemala opening odds

• Moneyline: USA -350 | Guatemala +900
• Draw: +450
• Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-150) | Under 2.5 (+115)

How to watch USA vs Guatemala

USA vs Guatemala key injuries

USA: Johnny Cardoso M (Questionable).
Guatemala: Nicholas Hagen GK (Doubtful).

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