Relegation has been confirmed for Burnley, so they're playing for pride at Elland Road. Leeds, on the other hand, still need points to make sure they're avoiding the drop.
It's always tricky in these kinds of matches, so I'll try to avoid the moneyline and opt for goals instead.
Here are my Leeds vs. Burnley predictions and free betting picks for Friday, May 1.
Premier League predictions for Leeds vs Burnley
My Leeds vs Burnley best bet: Over 2.5 goals (-154 at Sports Interaction)
Leeds matches have been trending toward goals lately, with over 2.5 hitting in each of their last three Premier League games. Burnley are helping that trend along — they’ve conceded seven goals across their last two away matches, shipping three to Fulham and four to Nottingham Forest.
Their games are consistently open, averaging exactly three goals per match, with only Manchester United (3.12) and AFC Bournemouth (3.06) seeing more.
Leeds also showed signs of life going forward, snapping a three-game home drought with a 3-0 win over Wolves. In a relegation battle where both sides need points, this sets up for chances at both ends.
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Leeds vs Burnley same-game parlay (SGP)
Both teams to score
Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score
Zian Flemming 1+ shots on target
Over 2.5 cards
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored 11 goals in 31 matches for Leeds this season. His last one came in the previous home match Leeds played in the Premier League, the 3-0 victory over Wolves. Even though his form hasn't been the best since the start of 2026, he remains one of the league's top marksmen and the leader of the Leeds front pack, so I'm counting on him to deliver in this key battle for survival.
I'll also add Burnley's Zian Flemming. He scored nine times so far, a decent return considering the position Burnley find themselves in. Flemming recorded at least a shot on target in six of Burnley's last seven Premier League outings.
I'm finalizing with cards. Let me start by saying ref Thomas Bramall has an average of 4.15 bookings per match. Leeds average 1.59 cards every game, while Burnley stands at 1.62.
Leeds vs Burnley odds
Leeds vs Burnley live odds
| Location | Elland Road, Leeds, England |
| Date | Friday, May 1, 2026 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
| Weather | Light rain. |
 Recent EPL form |
D-W-W-D-D |
 Recent EPL form |
L-L-L-L-D |
Leeds vs Burnley key injuries
Leeds: Ilia Gruev (Out), Gabriel Gudmundsson (Out).
Burnley: Connor Roberts (Out), Jordan Beyer (Out), Axel Tuanzebe (Questionable), Josh Cullen (Out), Hannibal Mejbri (Out), Zeki Amdouni (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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