A place in the UEFA Nations League Final is up for grabs as Spain and France square off in a blockbuster semifinal on Thursday, June 5, 2025.
With attacking firepower on both sides and a history of high-scoring affairs, our Spain vs. France predictions are leaning toward fireworks — and we’re backing Over 2.5 goals among our favorite free betting picks for this marquee clash.
Spain vs France picks and predictions
My Spain vs France best bet: Over 2.5 (+105 at Betano)
It was March 2023 when Spain last lost a game. The acting European Champions are on a 20-game unbeaten streak. Their last three games finished with at least four goals being scored, while their last five saw at least three hitting the net. France have the reputation of being more pragmatic, but that doesn't translate into a lack of goals if you look at their numbers.
Since their 2-1 defeat against Spain in the Euro 2024 semis, France have seen over 2.5 goals being scored in four of their six Nations League group matches. Inspired by PSG's emphatic triumph in the Champions League last Saturday (5-0 vs. Inter), France need a high-end performance if they are to reach the Nations League final.
A lot will depend on the fitness of PSG's stars, who might not be involved en masse. In-form Desire Doue, who was one of the heroes in the Champions League final after scoring twice and assisting another, is hoping to get minutes in the second half, a decision expected to be made also in connection with the scoreboard. Ousmane Dembele, the star of the campaign for Paris, is also in a similar situation to Doue.
But even if their playing time will eventually be limited, Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe will lead the French attack, so Spain can by no means turn to cruising speed. Spain's dynamic trio of Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, and Alvaro Morata, a formula that worked to perfection at national team level, screams goals, so I can't ignore the temptation to bet on goals.
France will be without starting central defenders Upamecano and Saliba, another factor to influence my decision. At +105, Betano's return is really good for the over 2.5 goals. If you feel adventurous, note that the over 3.5 sits at +255, while the over 4.5 is at +570.
Spain vs France same-game parlay (SGP)
Lamine Yamal 2+ shots on target
Marcus Thuram 1+ shots on target
Kylian Mbappe 2+ shots on target
Big players take centre stage in big moments. Half a second of inspiration can translate into uncontrollable joy for their teams and drama for their opponents. Lamine Yaman and Kylian Mbappe are definitely the kind of players who don't need to prove themselves anymore. They're not getting bored of the spotlight. I'll include them in my SGP with 2+ shots on target each.
Despite losing heavily to PSG at the weekend in the Champions League final, Marcus Thuram was arguably Inter's best attacking player. He permanently harassed the PSG defence, also troubling goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma on a number of occasions. Even if Thuram comes on the pitch in the second half, I'll not leave him out of my parlay.
Judging by their numbers in the Champions League alone, Mbappe is the player who sent the highest number of shots on target throughout the season (27), while Yamal is fourth in the same chart (24).
Spain vs France odds
Spain vs France live odds
 Spain |
 France |
|
|---|---|---|
| +145 | Moneyline | +210 |
| +210 | Draw | +210 |
| Over 2.5 (+120) | Total | Under 2.5 (-150) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Spain vs France opening odds
- Moneyline: Spain +145 | France +210
- Draw: +210
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-150)
How to watch Spain vs France
| Location | MHP Arena, Stuttgart, DE |
| Date | Thursday, 6-5-2025 |
| Time | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Weather | Light rain is expected. |
Spain vs France key injuries
Spain: None to report.
France: Dayot Upamecano CB (Out), William Saliba CB (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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