The biggest club soccer game on the calendar takes place today, with PSG meeting Inter Milan at Allianz Arena for the UEFA Champions League Final.
The French champions have entertained the world with their exciting, attacking play in Europe, but many will be hoping that the Italian soccer bluebloods win their first UCL crown since 2009-10.
My free betting picks break down the three Champions League prop picks that you need on your tickets for PSG vs. Inter, featuring a play on Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
Best Champions League player props today
- PSG o5.5 shots on target (-125)
- Calhanoglu to get booked (+400)
- Kvaratskhelia score or assist (-110)
PSG vs Inter Milan props for May 31
PSG Over 5.5 shots on target (-125 at bet365)
The French club come into this game as favorites, and it’s well earned.
After a slow start in this year’s Champions League, PSG accelerated at the end of the group stages and flew into the knockouts, managing to eliminate Liverpool and Arsenal on the way. Their attack rightly gets a lot of credit, but their ability to manage games and dictate the tempo is unmatched, and it’s expected that they’ll have the bulk of possession on Saturday.
More possession often equates to more shots, and that again should be the case here, which is why we’re backing PSG to have Over 5.5 shots on target.
Inter, despite the stereotypes around Italian defending, are not an elite defensive unit. Domestically, they gave up 35 goals in 38 games, which is good but far inferior to Serie A winner’s Napoli 27.
What’s alarming is that they’ve given up an average of 15.3 shots per game in the Champions League this season, and that ranks them 27th of the 36 teams that competed. You can't afford to give the likes of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele or Desire Doue those type of chances.
PSG average 18.6 shots per game, the second most of any team in this year’s Champions League, with an average of 6.9 on target. Yes, this is a final, but if the game goes the way the oddsmakers expect with PSG taking a lead, then it’ll open up the game and further increase the chances of PSG having shots on target.
Hakan Calhanoglu to get booked (+400 at DraftKings)
Getting the ball back off PSG this season has been very difficult. Just ask any of the teams who’ve struggled to take possession from Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha and Joao Neves.
To get the ball back, we’ve seen teams often needing to attempt to bend the rules, which can lead to fouls and bookings. When it comes to bookings, it’s Inter’s Turkish star Hakan Calhanoglu that is likely to see his name in the book.
We’ve seen the Inter midfielder rack up nine cards for his club this season, but the thing that really sets Calhanoglu apart is his tendency to get booked in big games. It’s almost as if he gets overtaken by the occasion and the tension around the big moments.
In the past seven games, he’s been booked five times, and a closer look shows them being in huge games. He got booked in the Milan derby, both legs of the semi-final victory over Barcelona, and in Inter’s final two Serie A games as they battled to win the title.
Facing a team that is both exceptionally quick and great in possession, Calhanoglu's got a great chance of getting booked.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to score or assist (-110 at bet365)
PSG started the season in excellent form, but the January addition of Kvaratskhelia was what really took the Parisians from being an excellent team into one that is potentially the best team on the planet.
The Georgian is incredibly dangerous on the left of the PSG attack, with two goals and two assists in eight UCL appearances this season, as well as a further seven goal contributions in other competitions since arriving in Paris.
The 24-year old met Inter five times during his spell at Napoli but didn’t manage to either score or assist. But he’ll be opposite Denzel Dumfries, Inter’s Dutch RWB who is known for getting forward, which could leave that left flank ripe for a Kvaratskhelia attempt.
He’s also played just twice in the month of May, getting rested by PSG, meaning that he comes into this fresh and hungry.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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