It’s the second leg of the Champions League semifinals this week, and we have the second installment of PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund today. Last week Dortmund won 1-0 in Germany and will be hoping to avoid defeat at the Parc des Princes to seal a spot in the final.
PSG won the group stage meeting at this stadium and will be aiming to do so again. Don’t miss our PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund predictions and free betting picks for Tuesday, May 7.
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund picks and predictions
My best bet:
Under 2.5 (+165 at TonyBet)
My analysis
On Tuesday we have our fourth instalment of PSG vs. Dortmund for the season, following two group stage clashes and last week’s first leg semifinal between the two clubs. Dortmund won that game 1-0 in Germany but it was PSG who controlled the game for the large part, with 58% possession and taking 14 shots to the German’s 13.
PSG are heavy favorites to win the game at odds of -244 and given they won the group stage game in Paris, that makes sense. Through three head-to-heads, each team has a win to their name and one draw, but there’s one thing that all games share, and that’s that they’ve all had a maximum of two goals. With that in mind, we’re backing Under 2.5 goals at big odds of +165.
All three games have followed a similar script with PSG dominating possession, with 57%, 58%, and 68% possession in the three meetings this season. The results have changed but in every game we’ve seen Dortmund happy to soak up pressure and trust their defense to withstand PSG’s attacks before hitting them on the counter.
That Dortmund strategy for a large part has been successful and travelling to Paris with a 1-0 aggregate lead means that they can again employ that tactic. There’s no pressure on Dortmund to go out and attack, they’re better served sitting back and trying to take advantage of gaps on the counter. As excellent as Kylian Mbappe is, his lack of defending and tracking back can cause issues for his team when they lose possession.
All three games have had Under three goals and with Dortmund looking to hold a lead, it’s likely we see a negative game script from them, unless PSG score multiple goals early.
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PSG vs Borussia Dortmund same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 3
PSG moneyline
Kylian Mbappe to score
In addition to the best bet, we’re going to include PSG winning. They won the group stage clash in Paris and in truth, despite only winning one of the three meetings this season, they’ve been the better team and the most positive in an attacking sense in each game. They should have enough about them to get the win here.
To wrap up the SGP we’re also backing Kylian Mbappe to be a player to score for the Parisians. He’s scored 26 goals in 28 Ligue 1 games and eight in 11 Champions League ties so far this season. When times get tough we’ve seen PSG able to rely on Mbappe, with the Frenchman scoring twice as they beat Barcelona in the second leg of their quarterfinal. Not only that, but he scored when the teams met in Paris in September.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund odds
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund live odds
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund opening odds
- Moneyline: PSG -200 | Borussia Dortmund +550
- Draw: +300
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund side and Over/Under analysis
- PSG are heavy favorites at -244 with a Dortmund win at +620 and a draw at +420.
- These two teams met twice in the group stage, with a 1-1 draw in Germany and a 2-0 PSG win in France.
- Over 2.5 goals comes in at -200 and Under 2.5 goals at +165.
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund game info
| Location: | Parc des Princes, Paris, France |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-7-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
| Weather: | 68F, 9 mph winds, 20% PoP |
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund key injuries
PSG: Sergio Rico GK (Out), Layvin Kurzawa LB (Out), Lucas Hernandez DEF (Out).
Borussia Dortmund: Ramy Bensebaini LB (Out), Sebastien Haller STR (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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