Two teams fighting for a place in next season’s Champions League will vie for an important three points in the Premier League today when Manchester City hosts Aston Villa at the Etihad.
Just two points separate third and seventh place in the table, and City hold a narrow one-point advantage over Villa. With both teams eyeing their respective FA Cup semifinals this weekend, it’s a match neither can afford to overlook.
My Manchester City vs. Aston Villa predictions for Tuesday, April 22 explain why the away side has a strong chance to push their away unbeaten run to four straight matches.
Premier League predictions for Man City vs Aston Villa
My best bet: Aston Villa double chance (-106 at bet365)
My analysis
At a glance, it appears that Manchester City have figured things out over the past month. They’ve gone five matches unbeaten, winning four and keeping three clean sheets in the process, but I’m just not buying it.
For starters, their last four opponents are all firmly entrenched in the bottom half of the Premier League table. Three of those squads — Everton, Leicester, and Manchester United — are barely averaging a goal per match between them, and yet City managed to outscore them by a combined 4-0 scoreline.
Against United, they were fortunate to come away with a point. The Red Devils created better chances and exposed frailties in their defense with pace. Crystal Palace did the same the following week, scoring twice before suddenly deciding to sit back and defend, at which City scored five goals to get the win.
Until they prove against a quality opponent that they’ve improved, I’m not convinced. A team like Aston Villa is exactly the side that can punish Man City’s weakest points.
The aging side struggles with teams that can run at them with pace, and Aston Villa can do that from all areas of the pitch. Just ask PSG, who had to hold on to escape their Champions League tie as Villa won 3-2 but lost on aggregate. Or better yet, look at how they picked Newcastle apart this weekend — a team that had won its previous three matches by an aggregate 12-1 score.
Morgan Rogers is in fine form, Marcus Rashford is showing resurgence, and Ollie Watkins just tied the club record for goals in a career. They defend well, and they'll put pressure on Man City’s midfield and back line while capitalizing on turnovers.
Villa have beaten Man City twice in the past three meetings, albeit both victories have come at home, but while Unai Emery’s side has lost each of its last 14 trips to the Etihad, I think this is the time we see that streak come to an end.
Only PSG has put a blemish on Villa’s record since late February, as they’ve won 12 of their last 13 matches. With a price of -106, I love the Villa double-chance play as I have it priced at -120. Back the Villains to pick up a critical point — if not all three — and stay right in the thick of the race for a Champions League position.
Man City vs Aston Villa same-game parlay (SGP)
Aston Villa double chance
Morgan Rogers to score or assist
Both teams to score — Yes
Rogers has contributed to a goal in five of his last six matches, scoring twice and assisting four in that span. He put three shots on target at the weekend against Newcastle and was unlucky not to score. He assisted and scored in Villa’s 2-1 win in the reverse fixture, and he will cause problems for young, unproven fullback Nico O’Reilly.
City have been held scoreless at home just three times in 25 matches across all competitions, and only Liverpool have done so since November. Villa have kept three consecutive clean sheets away in the league, but that run will end as their high line will get caught out at some point.
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Man City vs Aston Villa odds
Man City vs Aston Villa live odds
Man City vs Aston Villa side and Over/Under analysis
- Man City are favored with a price on the three-way money line of -115. Villa are the second choice at +300, with the draw slightly higher at +310.
- Villa have lost their last 14 visits to the Etihad in the Premier League, but have lost just once in their last 13 matches in all competitions.
- The total for this match sits at 3.5 goals with the Over priced at +125 and the Under at -144.
- Each of the last three meetings at the Etihad have seen these two sides combine for at least four goals.
How to watch Man City vs Aston Villa
| Location | Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-22-2025 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
| Weather | 56 F, POP 50%, 8-20 mph winds |
 Recent EPL form |
W-W-D-W-D |
 Recent EPL form |
W-W-W-W-W |
Man City vs Aston Villa key injuries
Man City: Erling Haaland F (Out), John Stones D (Out), Ederson GK (Out), Rodri M (Out), Nathan Ake D (Out).
Aston Villa: Pau Torres D (Questionable), Leon Bailey F (Probable).
Not intended for use in MA.
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