Leicester City vs Liverpool Picks and Predictions: Desperation Maybe Not Enough

We’ve got just one Premier League game on Monday, but it’s a very interesting one, with Leicester City taking on Liverpool. Leicester City are struggling and came into the weekend in the relegation zone, two points from safety. With just three games left, they don’t have long to start picking up points in their bid to escape the drop.

Standing in Leicester’s way are Liverpool, who, alongside Man City, are the Premier League’s form team, winning their past six games in a row. Don’t miss our Leicester City vs. Liverpool EPL betting picks and predictions for Monday, May 15. 

Leicester City vs Liverpool best odds

Leicester City vs Liverpool picks and predictions

Monday’s Leicester City vs. Liverpool clash will have ramifications for both teams. Neither club are fighting for the title this season, and while Liverpool are battling for Top 4, it’s Leicester who are in the worst battle of all, the battle to beat the drop.

Heading into this game week, Liverpool still have an outside chance of finishing in Champs League territory, but they’ll need either Newcastle, or most likely Man Utd, to capitulate. 

Relegation to the Championship would be bad news for the team who lifted the title in 2016, but Leicester started the weekend two points adrift of safety, with Leeds one spot behind them but level on points. It’s going to be tough for them to escape right now but still possible if they win games like this.

However, our best bet is based on two things, Leicester’s struggles and Liverpool’s great form, and we’ll be backing Liverpool -1 at +137 in this game. 

We’ll start with Leicester, they’ve become more solid under Dean Smith, who has instilled a defense-first strategy, but despite that they’ve still allowed more goals (64) than all but four teams in the Premier League this season. This is a team who, in the past two games, have allowed a dreadful Everton team to score two past them and gave up five goals to Fulham without star striker Aleksandar Mitrovic. They simply will concede here.

That’s very bad news when they’re facing a Liverpool team who have won six games on the bounce and who, despite a poor season, are still the third highest-scoring team in the Premier League. That six-game winning streak has seen them score three against Leicester’s relegation rivals Nottingham Forest, six against Leeds, and even four against Tottenham. 

In Mohamed Salah, they have the Premier League’s most on-form goal-scorer not named Erling Haaland. He’s scored eight goals in his past nine games and has only put up a blank twice in that time frame, making him another value bet at +110 to score in this game.

Backing the spread makes sense here, this is an attack that can blow people away. They’ve won their previous six Premier League games and have been winning at halftime in the past three games too. They start quickly and don’t take their foot off the gas. 

This is a team with an xG (expected goals) even higher than their goal tally of the season, by seven goals, meaning that they’re arguably underrated in that respect by the sportsbooks. It’s worth noting that this wager is available for a best price of +137, but one bookie has it as low as -115, meaning we’re potentially getting some real value here.

My best bet: Liverpool -1 (+137 at bet365)

Leicester City vs Liverpool side analysis

We’re going to see Leicester set up in a 4-2-3-1. The backline will see Daniel Iversen protected by Victor Kristiansen, Timothy Castagne, Wout Faes, and Caglar Soyuncu. Despite some dreadful defensive performances this season, you can see that there is a player in Wout Faes, while Soyuncu’s return to the first team under Dean Smith has been a success. Had Brendan Rodgers played the Turkish central defender, then there’s a chance they wouldn’t be in this situation now. 

Youri Tielemans and Wilfried Ndidi will be in midfield, with Tete and Harvey Barnes out wide. The key man, as always, will be James Maddison. The Englishman started the season in incredible form, but he’s not reached those levels as frequently recently. He’s still the best player at the club and it’s his shoulders that safety relies upon. He’ll be looking to both score goals and create opportunities for the frontman, likely Jamie Vardy.

Liverpool’s 4-3-3 will see the familiar back four of Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konata, flanked by Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson. Fabinho and Jordan Henderson will be in the middle, alongside either Curtis Jones, or most likely, Cody Gakpo, who has performed well from deep in recent weeks. That allows Klopp to fit in more of his attackers in the front three, with Salah on the right flank likely alongside Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz, who has looked lively on his return from a long-term injury. Darwin Nunez will probably start from the bench, having struggled in recent weeks.

Given that I’m backing Liverpool to win on the handicap it’s obvious that I’d back Liverpool on the moneyline here, but I think you’re getting better value with the handicap and would recommend betting that.

Leicester City vs Liverpool Over/Under analysis

With Over 2.5 goals clocking in at -200, you’re not getting big value on this being a high-scoring game, but given what we know about both teams, it’s the side of the total goals market that stands out. 

There have been Over 2.5 goals in 58.8% of Leicester’s Premier League games at the King Power Stadium, with four of the last five hitting that threshold. Likewise, we’ve seen a lot of goals when Liverpool are away from home too. 64.7% of their games away from Anfield have seen three or more goals, including their last two road trips.

When these two teams met in the reverse fixture at the tail end of December, it was Liverpool who won 2-1 with that game hitting the Overs too. In fact, four of the past six meetings between the teams in all competitions have hit that number.

Leicester City vs Liverpool game info

Leicester City vs Liverpool key injuries

Leicester City: James Justin FB (Out), Jannik Vestergaard CB (Out), Kelechi Iheanacho STR (Out), Ryan Bertrand LB (Questionable).

Liverpool: Stefan Bajcetic CM (Out), Naby Keita CM (Out), Thiago CM (Out), Roberto Firmino STR (Questionable).

Leicester City vs Liverpool recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Leicester City	L-L-D-L-L
Liverpool	D-L-L-W-W

Leicester City vs Liverpool weather

Leicester is forecasted to see rain throughout Monday, but it should let up by kickoff, with temperatures around 50 degrees.

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