Inter Miami vs Toronto FC Predictions and Picks: Scoring a Tall Task for TFC

Toronto is the worst team in Major League Soccer and has scored just seven away goals in 15 matches. With Lionel Messi's availability still in question for Inter Miami, we're banking on TFC's scoring struggles to continue.

Last Updated: Sep 19, 2023 1:01 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jonathan Osario Toronto FC MLS
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Inter Miami embarks on one of their busiest stretches of the season as they host Toronto FC in MLS action on Wednesday night.

Lionel Messi and Jordi Alba were kept back in Miami over the weekend, and Inter Miami were trounced soundly by Atlanta. Their 5-2 loss was the first since Messi joined the club, and it was a blow to their narrow playoff hopes. Tata Martino indicated Tuesday morning that Messi and Alba could miss out again, as they navigate a stretch of six matches in 18 days.

That would be welcome news for Toronto, a side yet to win a league match on the road this season. They sit bottom of the table in the East and are tied for the fewest points in the league with just four wins on the season. 

How will Messi’s availability impact the MLS odds for this match? Find out in our Inter Miami vs. Toronto FC free picks for Wednesday, September 20.  

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC best odds

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC picks and predictions

It’s been a very rough season for Toronto FC, but they’ll be glad to forget these past three months have ever happened. Since their 0-0 draw with Chicago on the final day of May, they’ve taken a total of six points of a possible 33. 

After a trio of draws, Toronto proceeded to lose eight straight matches before a 3-1 win at home against Philadelphia at the end of August, but they had some luck on their side, as they scored those three goals despite having just 1.81 xG on the day.

While they’ve at least been somewhat competitive at home during this poor run, their away form has been atrocious. In fact, they’re the only team in MLS this season yet to secure an away victory, having lost nine of their 13 on the road with four draws. They’ve also managed just seven goals, only two of which have been scored in their last eight away fixtures.

Then again, it’s tough to score if you’re not even testing the opposing team’s goalkeeper. In their last five away matches, Toronto has managed 51 shots in total. They’ve put only 18 of those on goal — and 10 of those came in one match, which was also the only time in that period where they’ve managed to score a goal.

In the past three matches since that 2-1 defeat, Toronto has forced their opposing goalkeeper into making only four saves. Their xG in those three matches was 2.01 xG. In fact, on the season Toronto’s xG mark over 13 away fixtures in league play is under 10.0, and they’ve not even managed to realize that number. 

Toronto’s seven away goals scored are tied for the fewest in the entire league, compared to a 16.7 xG and 17 goals scored in their 15 home fixtures. That’s why our best bet for Wednesday’s match isn’t going to be tied to the availability of Messi or Alba, as we’re taking Miami to hold Toronto off the scoresheet. 

Inter Miami have conceded 18 goals at home against a 20.2 xG, and they’ve kept a clean sheet in three of their last five meetings with Toronto stretching back to 2021. Miami knows they must win this match to make the playoffs, as dropping points against the only team below them in the Eastern Conference would be a critical blow. 

If Messi isn’t starting, I expect Martino to set his side up to ensure they don’t concede, and it’s unlikely they will. Take Toronto’s team total Under 0.5 goals at TonyBet with a terrific price of +125. 

My best bet: Toronto FC team total Under 0.5 (+125 at TonyBet)

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Inter Miami vs Toronto FC same-game parlay

Toronto FC TT Under 0.5

Inter Miami ML

Under 4

Leonardo Comparna Over 1.5 shots on goal

For our same game parlay, we head over to bet365 with a tasty combination that ties into a strong day for the hosts.

Regardless of Messi or Alba’s participation, I expect a win for Inter Miami. The price of -275 is surely to come down if he can’t go, especially since Martino’s comments before practice on Tuesday gave little insight into his plans. 

If that happens, it’ll boost this parlay even more, but with or without their two stars, they’re unbeaten in seven straight at home and Toronto is simply a bad team on the road.

To that end, we’re also going with three or fewer goals to be scored. If Messi isn’t starting — which I honestly think will be the case, with him coming off the bench in the second half — the Under is also likely to shift a bit. Miami won’t want to concede at the back and will likely take fewer chances, while Toronto does show some fight at the defensive end away from home.

Finally, we’re taking Leonardo Campana to put at least two shots on goal — if he starts. Make sure to check the lineups before placing, but he’s in outstanding form with five goals in his last three outings. He’s scored two goals in each of the last two, and he’s going to be the focal point of the attack if Messi isn’t out there. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Inter Miami vs Toronto FC side and Over/Under analysis

As of Tuesday morning, the public money is coming in on Miami. The possibility of Messi starting is shifting the price up over -300 in some places. However, that could change once lineups come out so I’d wait if you’re hoping to take the pink and gold either straight up or in a parlay.

The draw is paying over +400 on average and could be solid value on the 3-way line, with Toronto paying as high as +750.

The total is set at 3.5 on average, with the Under priced between -145 and -155. Again, if Messi doesn’t start, I expect the line to drop even more, so those looking for Over 2.5 should wait while those hoping to take the Under 3.5 may want to lock in now.

Miami’s actually had quite a bit of variance at home in league play. The Over 3.5 is only 1-1 since Messi joined at home, and on the season, Miami has seen four goals scored in their home matches just three times in 13 matches. They’ve also gone Under 2.5 in six of those outings.

Personally, there’s too much uncertainty to play anything straight up on the total. We’re on Toronto not to score, and with Inter Miami’s priority seemingly being on next week’s US Open Cup final, it’s hard to predict how long their stars will play. 

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC game info

Location: DRV PNK Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, FL
Date: Wednesday, September 20, 2023
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: Apple TV
Weather: Temp: 82, Heat index: 89, Wind: 12 mph, Humidity: 81%, POP: 50%

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Inter Miami vs Toronto FC key injuries

Inter Miami: Corentin Jean F (Out), Lionel Messi F (Questionable), Jordi Alba D (Questionable). 
Toronto FC: Adama Diomande F (Out), Cristian Gutierrez D (Out), Sean Johnson GK (Out). 

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