After a rocky June, the World Cup glow is starting to wear off for Canada — and a bounce-back performance would be timely as they face Guatemala in Gold Cup action on Saturday.
The Canadians were dealt some tough lessons in the Concacaf Nations League final against the USMNT earlier this month and a rejigged line-up (minus their biggest stars) labored in a 2-2 draw with Guadeloupe on Tuesday.
Guatemala, ranked No. 116 in the world, got their Gold Cup campaign off to a winning start with a 1-0 victory over Cuba this week thanks to Darwin Lom’s second-half strike, and they should arrive in Houston undaunted about squaring off against a Canada team missing Alphonso Davies, Cyle Larin, and Jonathan David.
Find out more in our free Guatemala vs. Canada betting picks and predictions for this Saturday, July 1 showdown.
Guatemala vs Canada best odds
| Guatemala | Canada | |
|---|---|---|
| +500 | Moneyline | -225 |
| +320 | Draw | +320 |
| Over 2.5 (-118) | Total | Under 2.5 (-106) |
Odds courtesy of bet365, June 30, 2023.
Guatemala vs Canada picks and predictions
We’re 15 months on from Canada’s jubilant celebrations after clinching a spot at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, and the vibe seems very different on and off the field.
A sluggish effort on Tuesday hardly helped matters, and suddenly there’s some pressure on the Canadians heading into this second Gold Cup group game. But I’m not overthinking this one — Canada is the more talented, more experienced team here and it feels like there’s some pride on the Iine in Houston this weekend.
Sure, Guatemala don’t tend to serve up goalfests (only one of their last five games has featured more than one goal) but the Canadians have to be on the front foot. The margin for error is much slimmer after the 2-2 draw against Guadeloupe, and that might just unleash more of their attacking potential, especially with some exciting young talents to turn to off the bench.
The Canada moneyline price doesn’t offer a lot of value, so I’m jumping on the plus odds for different scorelines where the favorites win to nil against a Guatemala side that struggles to find the net.
Saturday is Canada Day, and the nation’s 156th birthday. I see the Canadians having even more reasons to celebrate.
My best bet: Canada to Win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 (+165 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Guatemala vs Canada side analysis
Even after a disappointing showing in their Gold Cup opener against unfancied Guadeloupe, the Canadians are strong favorites here — and I expect them to come out with an early onslaught. They were far from convincing on Tuesday night, but still led 2-1 in the dying minutes before giving up an own goal in stoppage time.
The Canadians have won their last three meetings against Guatemala, though the previous matchup was in March 2015. Plenty has changed for both teams since then, but we won’t see the full-strength Canada side this weekend. Still, I see them being more aggressive in chasing a victory at Shell Energy Stadium after dropping points in midweek.
There were some predictable wobbles in the Gold Cup opener as John Herdman’s men adapted to the absence of their main attacking threats, though Junior Hoilett and Lucas Cavallini were both lively.
The likeliest game plan for Guatemala involves a firm defensive shape and opportunistic counterattacks, but it’s reasonable to wonder whether they might be a little bolder after seeing Canada short of their best in their past two games.
Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, who made his debut on Tuesday, and Carlos Mejia will have big roles to play as Guatemala’s outlets on the wings. But it all starts at the back for Los Chapines, who held Cuba to just one shot on target last time out and can qualify for the quarterfinal with an upset win here.
Guatemala vs Canada Over/Under analysis
While Canada don’t have their first-choice firepower in attack, I’m looking for a sharper performance here and less wastefulness in the final third. They had 18 shots on Tuesday but only six of them were on target.
With a quick turnaround after that contest at BMO Field, Herdman will need his youngsters to make an impact off the bench to support the veteran Hoilett. The gap between these teams in the FIFA standings is dramatic, yet it’s probably unrealistic to think of this depleted Canadian squad as No. 47 caliber.
June was a busy month for Guatemala, who played five games and collected two wins and three losses. Four of those contests were decided by a single goal and the Guatemalans were shut out in three of them, highlighting their defensive-minded approach. Lom was the match-winner in midweek after replacing injured forward Rubio Rubin, but he also missed a first-half penalty.
If you go back further in 2023, the underdogs had some more prolific outings in Nations League action, including a 4-0 victory over French Guiana, but I’d be surprised if we see anything like that on Saturday night.
Guatemala vs Canada game info
| Location: | Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, July 1, 2023 |
| Time: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Guatemala vs Canada key injuries
Guatemala: Rubio Rubin F (Questionable).
Canada: None.
Guatemala vs Canada weather
It’s set to be a hot night in Houston on Saturday, with sunshine throughout the day and temperatures soaring into the 90s. Both teams will need to count on their benches for fresh legs in energy-sapping conditions.
