Croatia vs Spain Picks and Predictions: Sending Modric Out on Top

When Croatia take the pitch against Spain in Sunday’s UEFA Nations League final, it could be the final chance for a nation of under four million people to see their greatest generation lift a trophy. The Vatreni have long punched above their weight, and they’ve fallen just short of winning the World Cup in each of the last two tournaments.

Standing in their way is a Spanish side looking to return to glory. With no players remaining from the 2010 World Cup squad following the retirement of Sergio Busquets, La Roja are hoping they can finally step out of the shadows of those great teams and establish a new legacy. After a disappointing performance at the World Cup, a win on Sunday would be a big step towards proving they’re a force to be reckoned with.

Will Spain win yet another major trophy this century and usher in a new era, or will Luka Modric finally lead Croatia to the summit and cap a phenomenal career? Our Croatia vs Spain betting picks and predictions for Sunday, June 18 will discuss all that and more as we bring you the best betting angles for the final.  

Croatia vs Spain best odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on June 15, 2023.

Croatia vs Spain picks and predictions

Although they were the better team for large portions of the match, Spain were somewhat fortunate in their 2-1 win over Italy on Thursday. The Azzurri shot themselves in the foot and fed into Spain’s pressure early, giving away a bad turnover that led to an easy goal. A Spanish handball in the box gave them a lifeline, but Rodri’s shot in the 84th minute was deflected by two different defenders. That left Italian keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma helpless to stop Joselu’s tap-in for the winner. 

Croatia will have felt a little unlucky to have not beaten the Netherlands in their semi-final on Wednesday without needing an extra 30 minutes, after Noa Lang’s 96th-minute equalizer denied them the win. But they dominated the bonus period, with Modric’s penalty four minutes from time sealing a 4-2 victory. The Vatreni saw four different players find the back of the net, and their midfield trio of Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, and Mateo Kovacic bossed the Dutch for much of the night.

Those three players are why I believe Croatia will ultimately hoist the trophy on Sunday evening. Italy’s midfield were bystanders for much of the match, as Spain had their way. Rodri was able to dictate play, and there was little the Azzurri could do to stop him. But that won’t be the case against a Croatian side that won’t turn the ball over like the Italians, and have the steel to win it back. 

Spain have struggled to find goals, and Italy gifted them one and some flukey bounces provided them a second. And yet, they finished the match with an xG of 2.73, as they missed multiple opportunities. Croatia doesn’t have that problem. Their four goals came on just five shots on goal, and they have a pair of clinical finishers in Andrej Kramaric and Mario Pasalic. If Spain gives them the opportunities they allowed Italy, they won’t hold the Croatians to just one goal.

A runner-up finish at the 2018 World Cup and a third-place finish in Qatar has left Modric without the one thing that has eluded him in his decorated career. His teammates want to win it for him, and we saw with Argentina and Messi just how that can push a team to another level. 

Spain are heavily favored to lift the trophy at the end of the match, but they’re favored by far too much, with their -200 indicating they would win two times out of three. For me, that’s too disrespectful to their opponent. Take Croatia to be victorious on the night, even if it takes well past regulation. 

My best bet: Croatia to lift the trophy (+150 at bet365)

Croatia vs Spain side analysis

The 3-way money line sees Spain favored anywhere between -105 and +105 at most books. While they’re -200 to lift the trophy, the lines indicate that the odds of them doing so in regulation aren’t the highest. It also provides some value on the draw, which you can get as high as +250.

Despite going 120 minutes on Wednesday, Croatia will have the extra day’s rest. They also won’t be without any key players. Josko Gvardiol has left the team after missing the semifinal due to injury, but nobody was lost in that match. 

Spain will have a few concerns heading into the final. Rodrigo came off at halftime in the semi final, and Pedri is out due to injury. While Dani Olmo was able to make the bench on Thursday, it might still be too soon for him to start. Dani Carvajal is expected by many to replace Jesus Navas but much of the lineup should remain intact. 

The semifinal defeat at the World Cup to Argentina is Croatia’s only loss in their last 16 matches. They’re an experienced side that play with skill and physicality, and they’ve played in enough big matches to know what it takes to get a result. They don’t get rattled, as their performance in extra time on Wednesday showed, and they finish their chances. 

It’s why I picked them to lift the trophy at the end of the day, and why I’d recommend taking their double chance at -125 rather than trying to figure out if they win in regulation or simply draw. 

Croatia vs Spain Over/Under analysis

Both teams saw their semifinal eclipse the 2.5-goal total, but the market has quite a bit of variance as to whether that history will repeat itself. The Under 2.5 was being offered at about even odds heading into Friday afternoon, but quite a bit of movement late in the day saw it dip into the -145 range.

If history is any indication, that could provide some value to the Over bettors. Not only has the Over hit in each of the last four meetings between these sides, those four fixtures have featured a combined 22 goals in total, 20 of which came in regulation. The last three meetings have each seen five or more goals, as well.

Of Croatia’s last five matches, stretching back to the World Cup semifinal, three have featured at least three goals with the other two seeing goals scored twice. Meanwhile, Spain has also seen the Over hit in three of their last five matches, with four of those fixtures seeing two or more. However, Spain has been held goalless in two of those matches.

Personally, I’m staying away from the Total, but the Over provides strong value. Neither team has shown a great ability to keep a clean sheet of late, and I expect both sides to score within the 90 minutes. There’s too much quality on the pitch for both sides to warrant laying the juice on the Under. 

Croatia vs Spain game info

Croatia vs Spain key injuries

Croatia: Josko Gvardiol D (Out). 
Spain: Pedri M (Out), Rodrigo F (Questionable), Dani Olmo F (Probable). 

Croatia vs Spain weather

The weather on Sunday evening in Rotterdam will feature temperatures in the mid-70s at kickoff, slightly dipping down as the match progresses. There is a minimal chance of rain, and winds will remain light and shouldn’t impact play. 

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