It’s the last-chance saloon for Canada and Trinidad & Tobago as they meet on Saturday with a spot at the 2024 Copa America on the line.
Both teams fell short in the CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinals, but this playoff matchup gives them a final lifeline, which is especially critical for the Canadians and their progress towards co-hosting the next World Cup.
Canada are the soccer odds favorites here despite a rough finish to 2023 — just two wins from their last eight outings — but don’t sleep on a Trinidad & Tobago team that’s gone toe-to-toe with the USMNT and Jamaica.
As we head into win-or-go-home territory this weekend, read on for my free betting picks for Canada vs. Trinidad & Tobago ahead of this Saturday, March 23 showdown.
Canada vs Trinidad & Tobago best odds
 Canada |
Trinidad & Tobago | |
|---|---|---|
| -1,250 | Moneyline | +1,900 |
| +800 | Draw | +800 |
| Over 2.5 (-194) | Total | Under 2.5 (+146) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on March 22, 2024.
Canada vs Trinidad & Tobago picks and predictions
Make no mistake, this is a huge moment for both nations, and for Canada in particular. There are no more safety nets or second chances.
For a team that was on such a high after reaching the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, it would be a crushing blow to miss out on much-needed tests at the Copa America — not to mention the opportunity to kickoff the tournament against Lionel Messi and Argentina.
Looking at the trends, there’s a chance this turns into an end-to-end thriller, and Canada played their part in a bunch of those last year. But I’m zagging on that and picking the Under on 2.5 goals here, with the pressure and high stakes tilting this towards a scrappy battle.
Trinidad & Tobago have been well-organized under Angus Eve and held their own in two tight friendlies against Jamaica earlier this month. They didn’t score in those 180 minutes of action, but only conceded once. I expect a similar gameplan on Saturday.
This is Canada’s first contest since the second-half meltdown against Jamaica in November, and that big gap between games has to be factored in too. They’ll be without key midfield spark Jonathan Osorio and there’s always the potential for a clunky contest when these international games are wedged into busy domestic seasons.
Canada’s interim boss Mauro Biello spoke about a "cultural reset" this week, with a younger squad and a new direction on the road to 2026. I see that process starting off with limited scoring and few scares this weekend.
My best bet: Under 2.5 (+146 at TonyBet)
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Canada vs Trinidad & Tobago same-game parlay
Under 2.5
Jonathan David anytime goal
I’m turning my Under pick into a SGP here by riding Jonathan David’s scoring run. David has been prolific for Lille over the past few months, netting 10 goals in his past nine games in Ligue 1.
That streak includes a hat-trick against Le Havre and doubles against Clermont Foot and Rennes, and David added another hat-trick in Coupe de France action. Without doubt, he’s a man in form.
While Saturday’s clash could be cagey, David feels like Canada’s No. 1 threat. I see him linking up with Alphonso Davies and making the most of the opportunities that come his way.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Canada vs Trinidad & Tobago side and Over/Under analysis
Despite the Soca Warriors performing well against teams already locked into Copa America spots, the Canadians enter as overwhelming favorites at -1,250.
That’s putting a lot of faith in Canada and Biello. Amid ongoing off-field distractions, they stumbled against Jamaica in a disastrous second half in November and have struggled to recapture the displays that fostered such optimism in the best days of John Herdman’s time in charge. Last year’s lackluster losses to the USMNT and Japan put a spotlight on that drop-off.
Though the Canadians have the clear talent edge, Trinidad & Tobago will be no pushovers. They proved that with a 2-1 victory over the USMNT in the second leg of their Nations League quarterfinal — thanks to goals from Reon Moore and Alvin Jones — and there’s every reason to expect a gritty, resilient effort in Frisco on Saturday.
As I noted above, there’s logic to picking the Over, with Canada’s last five games all serving up at least three goals, including two outings with five or more. Likewise, both legs of Trinidad & Tobago’s tie with the USMNT delivered three goals.
But how will the Canadians handle the pressure? That’s the big question on Saturday afternoon, and I expect the Soca Warriors to test their patience to the limit. With Trinidad & Tobago defending in numbers, there’s the potential for a real nail-biter.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Canada vs Trinidad & Tobago game info
| Location: | Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, March 23, 2024 |
| Time: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
| Weather: | Mid-60s, minimal wind, 0% PoP |
Canada vs Trinidad & Tobago key injuries
Canada: Jonathan Osorio M (Out).
Trinidad & Tobago: None.
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