Brighton vs Southampton Predictions & Picks for Friday’s EPL Matchup

With Brighton's attack looking particularly impressive of late and Southampton sporting one of the worst defenses in the league, our picks expect another victory for the surging home side.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Nov 28, 2024 • 10:35 ET • 4 min read
Joao Pedro Brighton EPL
Photo By - Imagn Images.

It’s always a bonus to have Premier League action on a Friday, with Brighton and Southampton clashing at AmEx Stadium in a battle of South Coast sides.

Brighton are in form, but the visitors performed excellently against table-topping Liverpool last weekend and have improved of late. That’s why our Brighton vs. Southampton predictions have the hosts winning but also conceding to Southampton.

Be sure to read my Premier League picks for Friday, November 29, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on the USA Network.

EPL predictions for Brighton vs Southampton

My best bet:
Brighton to win + both teams to score (+155 at TonyBet)

My analysis
Before you get too excited and rush to bet on Brighton, we need to consider Southampton. Yes, they are rock bottom of the Premier League with just one win and four points, losing 10 of 12 games and giving up 24 goals, the second-most in the league, but they’ve shown real signs of improvement of late.

Just three games ago, they secured their first victory of the season, beating Everton 1-0. Last week, we saw them take the lead against Liverpool before eventually succumbing 3-2. There’s no shame in losing to Liverpool, who top the Premier League, and the fact they played as well as they did should give them huge confidence going forward.

That said, this Brighton team has been one of the entertainers of the league season so far. They’ve reached this point thanks to incredible scouting, both in terms of the players on the pitch and their choice of managers across the last few seasons.

Their attack is particularly impressive, with Kaoru Mitoma and Georgino Rutter looking good. At the same time, Joao Pedro has continued to show why he’s one of the best players outside of the traditional big six clubs in the league. 

We have to expect a Brighton win. They’re a team in the ascendancy and one that has the tools capable of beating teams either on the counter or by breaking down a deep-lying team. They’ve won four of their past six games in the Premier League, and their only defeats all season have been to Liverpool and Chelsea, scoring goals in both of those games.

The one concerning feature of Brighton’s performances is that they’ve been letting in goals. They’ve allowed a goal in nine of 12 Premier League games this season, which combined with Southampton scoring in six of their past eight games, means we’re probably looking at the Brighton win with both teams scoring.

Brighton vs Southampton same-game parlay (SGP)

Brighton to win

Both teams to score — Yes

Joao Pedro anytime goalscorer

Southampton to have the most booking points

In addition to our best bet, which we'll have to add as two legs, we’ll also back Brighton striker Joao Pedro to score. He’s scored four times in his past five games and had been the best player on the pitch in Brighton’s past two games, wins over Man City and Bouremouth. He’ll fancy his chances of scoring against the Premier League’s second-worst defense.

To finish us off, we’re going to take Southampton to have the most booking points. They have the second-worst discipline in the Premier League, with 40 yellows and two red cards so far this season, some way ahead of Brighton, who have 27 yellows and a single red.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bet on soccer at TonyBet

One of Canada’s favourite sportsbooks for soccer, join TonyBet, which offers a 100% deposit match (up to $350) for new bettors!

Not available in Ontario.

Brighton vs Southampton odds

Brighton vs Southampton live odds

Brighton vs Southampton opening odds

  • Moneyline: Brighton -238 | Southampton +580
  • Draw: +420
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-223) | Under 2.5 (+180)

Brighton vs Southampton side and Over/Under analysis

  • When these teams last met in the 2022-23 season, both games finished 3-1 in favor of Brighton. 

  • Five of Brighton's six home games have gone Over 2.5 goals.

  • Half of Southampton's six road games have gone Over 2.5 goals. 

Brighton vs Southampton game info

Location: American Express Stadium, Brighton and Hove, UK
Date: Friday, 11-29-2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock
Weather: 49F, 17 mph winds, 0% PoP.
Brighton  recent EPL form W-W-L-D-W
Southampton  recent EPL form L-L-W-L-L

Brighton vs Southampton key injuries

Brighton: Text.
Southampton: Text.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo