It’ll be an EPL odds showdown between two battered and bruised squads today when Bournemouth welcomes Newcastle United to the Vitality stadium.
Bournemouth are licking their wounds after a 6-1 thrashing at Manchester City a week ago and will potentially be missing five players as they welcome another top team to town. The Cherries have lost five of six in all competitions, and find themselves yet again stuck in a relegation scrap.
Newcastle could almost field an entire lineup with their injured list and Eddie Howe will have to piece together a squad after losing in the Champions League midweek. He’s also hoping to not need VAR to gift his team a goal as they did last week against Arsenal.
Can Newcastle overcome their absences and remain within touching distance of the leaders, or will the Cherries pull out an important result at home? Find out in our free EPL predictions for Bournemouth vs Newcastle United on Saturday, November 11.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle best odds
EPL predictions for Bournemouth vs Newcastle
The injury crisis at Newcastle right now might be the worst in the Premier League. Making matters worse is the fact that their two top-choice central midfielders are both missing the match—with Bruno Guimaraes suspended for yellow card accumulation, and Sandro Tonali suspended 10 months for gambling.
One of Newcastle’s biggest strengths coming into the season—having two terrific options at striker—is also no longer on their side. Alexander Isak continues to be sidelined with an injury, and Callum Wilson is doubtful with a hamstring issue after coming off against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League.
That means Howe is likely to turn to midfielder Joelinton as the makeshift striker on Saturday. He manned the position against Manchester United in the EFL Cup, as he assisted a goal in their 3-0 win. He also managed a shot in the match.
Joelinton’s been shooting more of late. He got off two efforts against Dortmund, following a two-shot outing against Arsenal last weekend. In both of those matches, he was deployed either in a midfield role or on the wing.
Now he will be leading the line, and that’s bad news for Bournemouth. In five of Bournemouth’s last six matches in all competitions, the opposing central attacker registered two or more shots. And the last three they’ve faced each took at least three shots during the match.
Joelinton is a terrific player who loves to pressure defenders and win the ball. When he gets it, he’s adept at running at defenders and getting into the box for scoring chances.
The best part about backing Joelinton to take at least two shots against the Cherries is that even if Wilson starts, the Brazilian is likely to get his opportunities.
He’s facing a Bournemouth side missing multiple key players in midfield and defense, and is conceding the third-most shot-creating actions per 90 minutes in the league this season. The Cherries are allowing 17.45 shots per 90 minutes, which is only ahead of Sheffield United for the most allowed.
Take Joelinton to register at least two shots over at TonyBet, where you have -110 odds on offer. This is by far the best price on the market. If he’s starting at striker, that line will move very fast so don’t wait until lineups to lock it in.
My best bet: Joelinton 2+ shots (-110 at TonyBet)
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Bournemouth vs Newcastle same-game parlay
Joelinton 2+ shots
Joelinton 1+ shots on target
Newcastle moneyline
Newcastle Team Total Over 1.5 goals
Our same-game parlay takes us to DraftKings, where we will build on Joelinton’s performance helping key a win for Newcastle.
We’re adding the Magpies to get the win, and to score at least two goals in the process. Newcastle has multiple goals in three of their last four visits to the Vitality dating back to 2018, and ranks fifth in the league in shots on target.
They lead the league in percentage of shots on goal and are facing a defense in the bottom half of the league in that metric.
With that, I expect at least one of Joelinton’s efforts will reach the goalkeeper or go past him. Combine the four legs and you get a +350 price at DraftKings.
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Bournemouth vs Newcastle side and Over/Under analysis
Newcastle are the favorites on the road, with a price of -130 or more available. Bournemouth aren’t being backed to get a win, with their +375 price on the 3-way money line the least-expected outcome as the draw is priced at +310.
Even with their injury issues, Newcastle more than has enough firepower to get all three points. Bournemouth has lost five of their last six in all competitions, and their Premier League campaign has featured just one victory and three draws through 11 matches.
Bournemouth has failed to score in three of their six EPL matches at home, with multi-goal defeats to both Tottenham and Arsenal. Their porous defense will be their downfall here, but I’d parlay the Newcastle win rather than bet it outright at this price.
Looking at the total, backers of the Over will find even more juice. The Over 2.5 is priced at -150, while Over 3.0 on the Asian total market will get you plus-odds.
I’m personally avoiding the total altogether. I’m projecting a 2-0 win for Newcastle, but anytime you have this many injuries it’s difficult to properly handicap how a defense will perform.
Bournemouth do have a very capable striker in Dominic Solanke, and Newcastle could put in three on their own without a problem. There are simply too many unknowns to give a play here with good value.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle game info
| Location: | Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, UK |
| Date: | Saturday, November 11, 2023 |
| Time: | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock Premium, fubo TV, Sling Blue, Hulu + Live TV |
| Weather: | Dry with temps in the high 40s |
Bournemouth vs Newcastle key injuries
Bournemouth: Tyler Adams M (Out), Ryan Fredericks D (Doubtful), Neto GK (Doubtful).
Newcastle: Alexander Isak F (Out), Callum Wilson F (Doubtful), Bruno Guiamares M (Out).
Bournemouth vs Newcastle recent league form
| Teams | Recent Premier League Form |
|---|---|
 Bournemouth |
L-L-W-L-L |
 Newcastle |
W-D-W-D-W |
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