Wednesday’s Premier League game between Aston Villa and Chelsea at Villa Park could be a key fixture in determining who gets UCL action next season.
We’ve seen Aston Villa struggle recently, which is why my Aston Villa vs Chelsea predictions have the away team scoring at least two goals.
Read on for my Premier League betting picks for Wednesday, March 4, with kickoff at 2:30 p.m. ET on USA Network.
Premier League predictions for Aston Villa vs Chelsea
My Aston Villa vs Chelsea best bet: Chelsea Over 1.5 goals (+105 at Sports Interaction)
Aston Villa’s results have fallen off in recent weeks and are starting to revert to the mean, having outperformed the underlying data all season.
Villa have conceded 30 goals in the Premier League, despite their expected goals against (xGA) suggesting they should have conceded 41.44.
Conversely, the Blues have scored just 49 goals, whereas Chelsea’s xG suggests they should have scored 58.17, which would make them the second-highest-scoring team in the EPL.
Chelsea are getting into dangerous positions, while Villa have been getting lucky defensively, with data suggesting we're likely to experience regression — both positive and negative.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Aston Villa vs Chelsea same-game parlay (SGP)
Chelsea to win
Matty Cash 1+ foul
Reece James 1+ foul
I'm taking Chelsea to win for the reasons explained in my best bet, but also because of Aston Villa’s poor form, which has seen them win just one of their past six games in all competitions.
Matty Cash has conceded one or more fouls in 13 consecutive games at Villa Park and has given up 1.32 fouls per 90 minutes played this season.
Chelsea fullback Reece James has averaged 1.38 fouls conceded per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea odds
Aston Villa vs Chelsea live odds
How to watch Aston Villa vs Chelsea
| Location | Villa Park, Birmingham, England |
| Date | Wednesday, March 4, 2026 |
| Time | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Fubo |
| Weather | 62 degrees F, POP 20%, 4 mph winds. |
 Recent EPL form |
L-D-W-D-L |
 Recent EPL form |
W-W-D-D-L |
Aston Villa vs Chelsea key injuries
Aston Villa: Boubacar Kamara CM (Out), John McGinn CM (Out), Youri Tielemans CM (Out).
Chelsea: Levi Colwill CB (Out), Marc Cucurella LB (Out), Filip Jorgensen GK (Out) Pedro Neto FWR (Out), Mykhailo Mudryk FWR (Out), Jamie Gittens FWR (Questionable), Estevao FWR (Questionable).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
