Sun. 3/6/11 - San Francisco vs Gonzaga - Night Cap Underdog of the Night

My thoughts on this game is that the #2-seeded Gonzaga giving heavy -13.5 chalk is a lot to give to #3-seeded San Francisco.

Gonzaga giving 13.5 points to SF is also surprising seeing as they SPLIT their two meetings this year.

SF won at home 96-91 in overtime while Gonzaga won at home 70-53.

Gonzaga is CO-CHAMPS with St. Mary's with both teams 11-3 in the West Coast Conference. 

SF took 3rd in the WCC, right behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's.  They wer only 1 game behind 1st-place in conference sitting at 10-4.

Gonzaga and St. Mary's are currently sitting around an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament and San Fran will HAVE to win the conference tournament,...and they aren't many games away from doing just that.

DOWN LOW REPORT:

Gonzaga WILL HAVE A HEIGHT advantage tonight in their 7'0", 247 lb. Jr, Robert Sacre who gets the most touches down low and works WELL to get to the line where the big man shoots 81.6%.

Sacre will most likely have to deal part of the game against 6'10" 235 lb senior Moustapha Diarra of SF.

Gonzaga's next forward would be Elias Harris at 6'8", 215 lb, but will have to deal with Perris Blackwell sitting at 6'8", 240 lbs.

Gonzaga relies HEAVILY on scoring 2-pointers and don't look to shoot the 3-bangers.  SF will have to deal with some powerful Blocking Specialists tonight, as SF is a shorter team comparatively.

3-Banger Report:

San Fran is #1 in conference at guarding the 3's.  They hold their conference opponents to 32.5% which is BEST in conf.

Gonzaga shoots 34.3% from 3-point land, but rely a LOT more heavily on 2-pointers and FTs.

If there were to be a lot of 3-pointers to be made, Michael Williams or Angelo Caloiaro will be shooting them over Gonzaga's bad 3-point defense.  They rank 2nd-last in conference at defending them.

MAIN POINTS TO SAN FRAN +13.5:

*This is a lot of chalk to give to a third place team in conference that was only 1 game behind.  PLUS it's a lot of chalk for a 3-seed vs a 2-seed.

*San Fran is two games away from punching their ticket to the NCAA Tourney.

*San Fran split the 2 games that they played Gonzaga in this year.

*This is a neutral court (Orleans Arena)

San Fransisco Dons +13.5

Best of Luck Evry1!

TexasD

My sportsbook has San Fransisco's Money Line at +775.  If I had ONE OTHER PLAY tonight left, I'd parlay that OTHER pick with their money line for a little bit o money for fun.

It'd pay approx 16 to 1.

I wouldn't put anything BIG on their ML, but sprinkle sum fun money 2-team parlay on it for fun.

BOL

Gonzaga is very good with their height and you would think that they would kill San Fran seeing as they are a shorter team, but in their 2 meetings this year, Gonzaga only outrebounded SF by 4 rebounds in each matchup.

SF need to be careful with GETTING blocked by the bigs.  In their game in SF, they got block 6 times by Gonzaga (Robert Sacre, 3) compared to the 4 blocks SF had (Perris Blackwell, 3).

When SF was @ Gonzaga they got blocked 6 times by Gonzaga to only 1.

Congratulations to all the San Francisco Don Backers!