Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NCAAB Record:
23-11 @ 68% for +10.9 Units
Thur, 02/10
Michigan State Spartans -6
Oh how the 'mighty' have fallen. After being ranked as high as #2 this year, Michigan State is in danger of missing the NCAA tourney for the first time in 13 years. This is their ‘last stand’. For a number of different reasons I like the Spartans to get a cover tonight:
i) Jeff Brooks is NOT playing for Penn State.
I have to be honest, if he was in, then there is no way I would be backing Michigan State here. But with him out this provides a good opportunity to take the Spartans. Brooks is the 2nd leading scorer for the Nittany Lions averaging almost 14 ppg and he is their leading rebounder at 7.2 rpg. In addition he is leading the team with 57% FG % and 47% from the 3PT line. For a team that shoots 31% from the 3PT line overall, this is a big loss. In addition, he’s a big loss on a defensive end as well. Penn State as a team averages 3 blocks-per-game. Well, Brooks accounts for 1.7 of those or 57% of his team’s blocks. He’s also 2nd on the team with 0.9 steals per game (25% of team’s totals). Some might argue that Brooks is Penn State’s most important player.
Playing without Brooks, Penn State got smoked by Illinois (he was injured right before the 1st half was over) and lost to Michigan at home in their last game. Talor Battle played out of his mind in that one, going 9 for 18 from the floor for 31 points and 7 rebounds in 40 minutes of action. He accounted for 50% of Penn State’s scoring. The problem was that the rest of his teammates shot 10 for 29 (34%) from the floor. This was the 1st game without Brooks and it will only get tougher as Nittany Lions hit the road without him.
ii) Revenge
Michigan State lost the first meeting between the 2 teams about a month ago. Interestingly, Brooks led Penn St with 17 points, 6 offensive rebounds, 18 total boards, 3 assists, 1 steal, and 4 blocks. Without him, Battle will have to pick up the slack tonight. Well, in that first meeting he went 3 for 14 from the field, 1 for 8 from 3PT line, for 13 points. As much energy as he spent against Michigan, I see him replicating these poor #’s from the first meeting between the 2 teams.
iii) “Line-value”
In the first game @ Penn State, Michigan State were -6 point favorites. With standard home/away adjustments, you would expect them to be -12 favorites at home. Well, obviously you have to consider the fact that the Spartans were OVER-valued by the books early on as well as them kicking-off a few players (Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen) from the team. Well, Nittany Lions are missing a big piece in this one as well. Putting it all together, maybe Michigan State shouldn’t be -12 favorites at home, but at least -9/-10. Either way you look at it, I feel there is some ‘line-value’ favoring Michigan State in this one.
I see this game as Michigan State’s last chance to make a run at the tournament. This is a ‘MUST-WIN’ game, even though some would argue that the last few were ‘must-win’ for them. Penn State is only 1-6 on the road and is missing one of their best players. I expect the Spartans to play well today and get a comfortable double-digit win at home.
23-11 @ 68% for +10.9 Units
Thur, 02/10
Michigan State Spartans -6
Oh how the 'mighty' have fallen. After being ranked as high as #2 this year, Michigan State is in danger of missing the NCAA tourney for the first time in 13 years. This is their ‘last stand’. For a number of different reasons I like the Spartans to get a cover tonight:
i) Jeff Brooks is NOT playing for Penn State.
I have to be honest, if he was in, then there is no way I would be backing Michigan State here. But with him out this provides a good opportunity to take the Spartans. Brooks is the 2nd leading scorer for the Nittany Lions averaging almost 14 ppg and he is their leading rebounder at 7.2 rpg. In addition he is leading the team with 57% FG % and 47% from the 3PT line. For a team that shoots 31% from the 3PT line overall, this is a big loss. In addition, he’s a big loss on a defensive end as well. Penn State as a team averages 3 blocks-per-game. Well, Brooks accounts for 1.7 of those or 57% of his team’s blocks. He’s also 2nd on the team with 0.9 steals per game (25% of team’s totals). Some might argue that Brooks is Penn State’s most important player.
Playing without Brooks, Penn State got smoked by Illinois (he was injured right before the 1st half was over) and lost to Michigan at home in their last game. Talor Battle played out of his mind in that one, going 9 for 18 from the floor for 31 points and 7 rebounds in 40 minutes of action. He accounted for 50% of Penn State’s scoring. The problem was that the rest of his teammates shot 10 for 29 (34%) from the floor. This was the 1st game without Brooks and it will only get tougher as Nittany Lions hit the road without him.
ii) Revenge
Michigan State lost the first meeting between the 2 teams about a month ago. Interestingly, Brooks led Penn St with 17 points, 6 offensive rebounds, 18 total boards, 3 assists, 1 steal, and 4 blocks. Without him, Battle will have to pick up the slack tonight. Well, in that first meeting he went 3 for 14 from the field, 1 for 8 from 3PT line, for 13 points. As much energy as he spent against Michigan, I see him replicating these poor #’s from the first meeting between the 2 teams.
iii) “Line-value”
In the first game @ Penn State, Michigan State were -6 point favorites. With standard home/away adjustments, you would expect them to be -12 favorites at home. Well, obviously you have to consider the fact that the Spartans were OVER-valued by the books early on as well as them kicking-off a few players (Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen) from the team. Well, Nittany Lions are missing a big piece in this one as well. Putting it all together, maybe Michigan State shouldn’t be -12 favorites at home, but at least -9/-10. Either way you look at it, I feel there is some ‘line-value’ favoring Michigan State in this one.
I see this game as Michigan State’s last chance to make a run at the tournament. This is a ‘MUST-WIN’ game, even though some would argue that the last few were ‘must-win’ for them. Penn State is only 1-6 on the road and is missing one of their best players. I expect the Spartans to play well today and get a comfortable double-digit win at home.
Good luck!
0
...GL
Nice writeup and congrats on the winner
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