World Cup 2010 Solid Pick(s)

History and tradition go along way in the World Cup. Lets go back and look at the winners since 1958..

1958 -> Brazil

1962 -> Brazil

1966 -> England

1970 -> Brazil

1974 -> Germany

1978 -> Argentina

1982 -> Italy

1986 -> Argentina

1990 -> Germany

1994 -> Brazil

1998 -> France

2002 -> Brazil

2006 -> Italy

So basically since 1958 only two teams (England and France) have won the soccer world cup besides Brazil, Germany, Italy and Argentina. And both those teams were host nations. I believe sometime in my lifetime an Africian team will win the world cup just not this year. Looking at the contenders there are flaws with nearly of all time, hence such an open betting heat.

1) Spain have always failed on the world cup stage and you know after an impressive opening they will fail when it matters.

2) England are quite frankly a disgusting price. They have a good coach but nowhere near the talent to win a world cup.

3) Holland could surprise. It looks like a quarter final against Brazil. If they could win that they may be a surprise contender in the easiest half of the draw.

4) Italy. I do not believe have enough quality, same with Portugal.

5) Germany are always tough to beat but again I can't see them going past the semi's although if any team can put a spanner in the works its them (ala 2002). Like 2002 I don;t believe they can actually win.

6) France, will be lucky to get out of the group...

Like everytime world cup there will be a surprise team. But when I look at tradition, the conditions (first world cup at altitiude since 1986) and quality only 2 teams stand out and that's Brazil and Argentina. Right now you can get Brazil at @ +450 and Argentina @ +650. I will be totallt stunned if the winner does not come from these two. I already got Aregentina +1600 (straight after they looked like they might miss out in qualification) and I have Brazil @ +600. I still feel there is enough value to back these two. Put 100 dollars on both and you should get an excellent run for your money (they are both in opposite sides of the draw)..

There you go so

1) Brazil +450

2) Argentina +650..

Good luck and enjoy the next month...I will post some regular plays. Will be playing a few dogs. Will post closer to the time

Brazil doesn't seem like the team in the past years. I definately see them in the final four at least. However, with that said. I have Argentina winning it all. Although, I will stay away from the net so I may not see Maradona streaking through Beunos Aires naked

Brazil will be thrilled by such a low key build up. I still feel in a World cup which lacks the quality of tournaments gone by, I feel they will get very close. Holland could be a tricky match. Get past that and they will be in the final..

Brazil will not win there is only 1/2 the talent on the team that was in Germany in 2006 where...they did not win

Also agree with DiamondJack. I don't see Brazil making it too far.

Argentina is obviously the main favorite, but I still like Spain and England if they can stay healthy, which is asking for a miracle it seems for England....

Brazil is a red hot contender.... If a defense wins championships - and that is a very popular and (true) phrase nowadays - Brazil is extremely well equipped:

               Cesar

Maicon - Lucio - Juan - Bastos

and guys like D.Alvez, Luisao, Thiago Silva in the back....

That looks simply stroooong. Maby just the Argentine defense comes close to that quality....

And defense was always the Achilles' heel of Brazilian game. But not this time! It will be extemely difficult to score vs. this line.

They have very good chances to lift the cup (if their midfield and attack is working...)

You're right about England,a ludicrously low price simply based on limiting bookmakers liabilities in the event of an English triumph, it's always the same with every major tournament they play in.

Brazil are well organised this time around by Dunga, plenty of substance and less show could see them win La Penta

Argentina barely made the World Cup,  Holland it is....

Right I have been asked to do my own thread. I have been hijacking VanZack's thread. I am hitting pretty amazing this world cup..Posted plays so far (over a few threads)

"Hmm I appreciate the write-ups Vanzack but I disagree with most of it. Where we disagree very strongly is that I feel the African teams will in the main perform well. I expect that one of them will even make the semi's.

Group A. Uruguay ALWAYS underachieve when it comes to World Cup. I hate that bet for them to win the group or even qualify. South Africa are the host nation and I expect them to perform way above expectations. I see this being a tight group. I think the hosts qualify with either France or Mexico. I REALLY don't fancy Uruguay here.

Group B. We really disagree strongly on Greece. I think they are vastly over rated. I think Korea are not bad but I expect Nigeria to come through (maybe Korea) along with Argentina

Group C. NO WAY ENGLAND strolls here. You will be sweating on the -320. BIGTIME! I think Slovenia are the dark horses here and I actually think they will be ahead of England going into the final match. England should win the group but you will sweat on that -320 that I guarentee. By along way the most over rated team at this or any world cup.

Group D. I think this a great group. I think any of the 4 could qualify. I would not even take a stab at it. I think Serbia will be a disappoinment (just a hunch).

Group E. I Love Cameroon to Qualify! I think its between the Dutch on the Danes to join them..I will go Holland but it will be close.

Group F. I like Italy and Slovakia here. Paraguay like Uruguay they never perform on this stage. Slovakia strong solid team.

Group G. Even without Drogba, I like Ivory Coast and Brazil here. Portugal I think very over rated and in trouble.

Group H. I like Spain and Chile.

As you see we disagree strongly, will be interesting to see who is more right ..

I think the simliest way to make money is backing Brazil and Argentina pre world cup and enjoy the rest"

 don't like the over in South Africa v Mexico. Most opening games are cagey affairs. I think this ends 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1. Either way no real strong feelings for me opening game(s). For me small play on 1-1 @ +500 and small play 1-0 South Africa @+600. Main play Under 2.5 goals @ -180...

France v Uruguay is a non betting game for me. Again a small play 0 - 0 @ + 650 and a chancey Uruguay 1-0 @ +800. Again like the under here...

Day 2: South Korea to beat Greece @ +200. Argentina should beat Nigeria but something really fishy about that line -200??Going to take a stab at the draw +300.

I will play England v USA over as well...Looks like goals here...(this was a push)

All small plays. Best way to make money bet Brazil and Argentina Pre tourney..

Been a Superb start for me so far (4 wins, 1 push and 1 loss). My predicated results for the next 4 Games are below:                         

My actual Bets are:

1) Germany - 175 (not overly confident)

2) Holland v Denmark over 1.5 Goals @ -300 (very big bet).  3) Cameron to win to nil @ +220.

4) Italy Draw no Bet -200 (another big bet, if game is drawn you get your money back).

Predicted scores:

Germany 1 Australia 0

Holland 3 Denmark 1

Cameron 2 Japan 0

Italy 1 Paraguay 0

Basically crus a draw or a Paraguay you win the bet.

I personally hate the bet Vanzack has made on this game. If you like Paraguay why not play the 0-0 or 1-0 for Paraguay for far bigger value?. Ok sometimes you might lose to a 1-1 or a more unexpected scoreline (realistically though there wont be more then 2 goals in this game and I ceratinly can't see Paraguay scoring twice). Besides the poor value in Van's bet, I hate the idea of lumping money on average team like Paraguay.  

I think there is a far better, safer way of making on this game.        I really don't believe Italy will lose this game. If they do then this post is going to look very foolish and my profits thus far on this world cup honestly? very quickly wiped out.

However, I personally think Italy draw no bet for -200 is a Fantastic bet. I have quite a bit invested in this. If the draw hits you get your money back. I have also backed 0-0 and 1-1 both @ +500. So as long as Paraguay don't win then it should be quite a profitable game.

The reason I hate Vanzack's bet is that I feel he is on the wrong side here with Paraguay. Let me give you an example of how my thinking works...

Let's say, I am investing 1200 bucks on this game (I'm investing more but using this as my example).

1000 is being played on the Italy draw no bet @ -200...

100 on the 0-0 @ +500..

100 on the 1-1 @ +500...

If Italy wins thats 500 bucks win, -200 for the missed draw(s) so that's 300 bucks profit.

If the game ends up 0-0 or 1-1 you get your orginal bet back. You win 500 bucks -100 for the other missed draw so that's 400 bucks profit. If the game goes against the general train of thought and finishes 2-2 then your only down 200 bucks.

Of course Paraguay can win, there have been alot bigger shocks in world cup history. But with a team like Italy (great tradition, defending champs) I would rather be on there side then Paraguay's who are +300 and in World cup's more often then not fail to deliver after impressive qualifying campaign's in South America.

right brought my thread and picks up to date. Going to look for some value in tomorrow's game. Will be back later with picks...

ok Day 5..I have to be honest and don't have the same feeling for tomorrow's games as I did for today's which I murdered..So I will be playing low stakes tomorrow. There are better days ahead from a gambling prespective and I don't want to undo all the good work thus far betting alot on games I don't have a real strong feeling for..

Let's start with Slovakia v New Zealand. Quite frankly a cappers nightmare...The trend so far with most matches is too play the under, especially with the poor teams. The under 2.5 goals is evens here. I found this strange and wouldn't think you would get such a good price for it...For me this is a NO PLAY. In these games where I honestly don't have a clue I tend to fade myself so will play the over 2.5 goals @ evens. Low stakes only an interest (tail someone else this game!)

On to game 2 which is Ivory Coast v Portugal. I really see a tight game here. Both teams know if they lose this game, essentially their world is over. My first reaction to this game is that it looks a draw written all over it and that's what I am going to play. I am also going to take a chance on Cristano Ronaldo to score anytime. Again guys sorry I can't be more confident I am just not feeling it.

Game 3: I am playing Brazil to win by 2 goals EXACTLY @ + 300..Really not sure what to for for here.

So tomorrow's plays are:

1) New Zealand v Slovakia Over 2.5 goals @ evens

2) Portugal v Ivory Coast to draw @ + 250 and C Ronaldo to score anytime @ +150

3) Brazil to win by exactly 2 goals @ +300

Sorry, I have nothing more concrete guys. Just don't like tomorrow's games..Gl with what ever you go with..

Good Luck , Mack.

I'm impressed so far, and will be a regular visitor to your thread. Might even ask you some stupid questions. Like - I played Italy PK at 5Dimes at -188 today. It was a push with the draw. I think this was the essentially the same bet you made, correct? ( I did not bet on the final score)

BTW, I agree with your starting your own thread. Once again, good Luck.

GL mack.

good writeups mack. gl man

Mack - simple question, how do you feel regarding parlays in Soccer ?

I would hate to write of Spain, they are the defending European champions, and the did participate in the South African Confed Cup last year with Brazil, Italy and USA.

"Game 3: I am playing Brazil to win by 2 goals EXACTLY @ + 300..Really not sure what to for for here."

Hey Mack, if that's the play, wouldn't it make more sense to play the exact scores instead? I don't have the juice in front of me, but I'd have to imagine that Brazil 2, DPRK 0 and Brazil 3, DPRK 1 would probably be higher than +300?

Love the Portugal/Ivory Coast draw play btw, Mack. BOL tomorrow

Big Mack,

NK vs. Brazil

What is your opinion of NK to win @ +2000 moneyline ??

Or draw @ +750 moneyline ????

I hear they play solid defense.  And they are very secretive....

GOOD LUCK MACK....you're a class act and i sincerely wish you all the best with your WC picks!!