NCAAF Week 1 Plays

Quote Originally Posted by XIXBIGBenXIX:

Seem like toss-ups to me buddy . Care to share what you see in those 2 games?

Hey man it's good to see ya....

Well I am basically going off my power rankings....they are based on the last few seasons.....of course they have been adjusted based on players who have moved on, new freshmen coming in, new systems, ect. ect. And they will get much better after each week (as will LVSC numbers as well) but for week 1 the lines are so soft it works right from the start.

So based on all that these are 2 lines that are a little off....my numbers came up with N.C. State + 9  and Okie State - 3

I just trust a power ranking system that has worked for me for many years and roll with it....hit 57.5% ATS last year (posted on covers) and a little better than that the year before (unposted).

Nothing amazing, but a solid winning season for sure. And thats my only goal....to win.

So to sum it up....all I really try to do is exploit bad numbers and put myself into + EV situations as much as I can.

I dont try and figure out who is going to win....I could care less who wins....I'm just trying to put myself on the right side of the number more often than not.

I hope that makes sense. 

Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

Wouldn't "Okie State at -3" on your PR make WAZZOU +6 the play? 

 

And, GL this year Weathered.  Always read your stuff.

lol your right....that was a typo...had Okie state at - 13

i missed the 1 in front of the 3 while I was typing.....now like I said...the numbers might not be as good as they will be by the 2nd or 3rd week...so - 13 might be a little off....but it's still far enough off to warrant a play

thanks for that catch and best of luck to you this season as well buddy