My Own Statistical Probability Formula NCAAF WEEK 6

These teams have a high probability of covering ATS with a formula I have developed. Don't ask me how I came up with the percentages rather play them or wait and see what happens after this week. Here are the following games that have the best potential of covering ATS:

if u hit more than 55% keep posting

UNT

ticojoe:

What is the probability that you will go over 60% for the week as compared to under 60%?

If that % is around 70%, then don't waste your time on here......start scouting for investors...they will be able to supply you with the proper amount of capital in order to employ a system.

I have found over the years that making money and having solid winning percentages for an entire season are 2 very different things. 

 Ultimately, it is not necessarily how many wins vs losses that lead to a positive cash flow, it is when the losses occur.  If you run decent for a few weeks, then have a disaster week (which are inevitable when using a statistical-based system) then it is very likely that the bettor is to be wiped out before he can hammer the rest of the season.

An extremely high % of winning weeks sort of shows that at the very least wins are consistently coming in, rather than just sporadically huge weeks vs a large # of average weeks.

I have worked at day trading commodities for longer than I will admit here; analyzed many a system....at the end of the day WHERE and WHEN the  frequency of losses are occurring is more important than how many wins you can put in the hat. 

The one statistic that has the most value in determining the relevance of a given system, is the % chance of enduring an abnormally lengthy run of losses.

I have no idea why I decided to write this diatribe; I hope your system proves both relevant and profitable....and best of luck with your picks.

Love the DORES
Like the COCKS

nice job bigvern, my MBA came in handing reading your post.

tc- I've seen some of the top wall street quant analysts in the world devise formulas for sports betting that did not exceed 60%, based on what i have seen in the past 70% is not realistic, if u can make money stick with ur formula, I am already on a few of ur plays and wish u the best of luck this week.

If u have devised a system and games fit the bill, u should play them as well, will come back to bite u in the arse. 

do u have the ability to factor in emotional let downs? Like a value or percentage u can assign to a team after a big win or upset. Without that its hard for a computer to figure in emotional let downs

If those were really your odds, you'd be a millionaire in no time.

You should cut them all down to something like (X - 50) / 20.

I also use stat models for my picks, but I don't fully employ them until week 9. I am on year 7 of statistical models for college football. Probably North of 3000 hours of research now. It's an addiction.

 

Good luck.

Nothing like a quest for the holy grail to drive a man to near madness.  Ahh........is there any pursuit more attractive to an inquisitive mind than one of discovery??

I dig the ambition. 

I am traveling now and wont be able to update so going to add the following:

MIAMI, BUFFALO, and OREGON all fall in the low 90% range to cover ATS.

Yester both UCLA and IOWA STATE came in as predicted.

For Utah State and Nevada I have them at 63% ATS.

I like Iowa over Mich St.

Please explain how you get these percentages.  No one should ever be projecting anything more than about 60 percent for an ATS pick.  More realistically, the high end of your confidence should be about 55 percent.

Great Job! I don't give a rats behind how u come up with the numbers just keep posting winners bro!

What is this system all about?

your system are okay; but the problem that I happened to take all of your losers teames,