My Own Statistical Probability Formula NCAAF WEEK 6

ticojoe:

What is the probability that you will go over 60% for the week as compared to under 60%?

If that % is around 70%, then don't waste your time on here......start scouting for investors...they will be able to supply you with the proper amount of capital in order to employ a system.

I have found over the years that making money and having solid winning percentages for an entire season are 2 very different things. 

 Ultimately, it is not necessarily how many wins vs losses that lead to a positive cash flow, it is when the losses occur.  If you run decent for a few weeks, then have a disaster week (which are inevitable when using a statistical-based system) then it is very likely that the bettor is to be wiped out before he can hammer the rest of the season.

An extremely high % of winning weeks sort of shows that at the very least wins are consistently coming in, rather than just sporadically huge weeks vs a large # of average weeks.

I have worked at day trading commodities for longer than I will admit here; analyzed many a system....at the end of the day WHERE and WHEN the  frequency of losses are occurring is more important than how many wins you can put in the hat. 

The one statistic that has the most value in determining the relevance of a given system, is the % chance of enduring an abnormally lengthy run of losses.

I have no idea why I decided to write this diatribe; I hope your system proves both relevant and profitable....and best of luck with your picks.

I also use stat models for my picks, but I don't fully employ them until week 9. I am on year 7 of statistical models for college football. Probably North of 3000 hours of research now. It's an addiction.

Good luck.

Nothing like a quest for the holy grail to drive a man to near madness.  Ahh........is there any pursuit more attractive to an inquisitive mind than one of discovery??

I dig the ambition.