BYU - UTEP discussion

i'm trying to understand the case for UTEP... i've seen a couple of very good cappers who like UTEP alot, and what i see when i break down their season is absolutely attrocious...

i've done my final power ratings for the year, and they have turned out to be very accurate...


for each game a team plays during the season, they will rate anywhere from a 1 to a 10... without going into great detail, i will try to give you an idea what the scores mean...

a 1 would be equivalent to losing to Memphis (PR=2) at home by 6 pts or less...
a 10 would be equivalent to beating Oregon (PR=9) in Oregon by 6 pts or less...

scores are influenced by margin of victory, which caps out at a 35 pt win...


with that in mind... look at how UTEP scored, against a pathetically weak schedule... (Bold numbers indicate home games)


UTEP (PR=4):  5 - 1 - 7 - 2 - 5 - 6 - 2 - 1 - 4 - 7 - 3 - 6


what i want you to notice is the fact that they scored a 1 twice, and a 2 twice... i have been doing my own performance ratings for a few years now, and while i have seen teams score that low that many times in a season, i have never seen a bowl team that did...

i mean, this team actually played 6 teams from the bottom 20 in CFB... and went 4 - 2 in those games!!!  they got 6 wins to become bowl eligible... 4 from the bottom 20, and another from a Div II school... the only legitimate win they have all year is a 28-14 win at home over SMU...

everything else on their resume is complete garbage... and yet some people love UTEP in this game???


by comparison, BYU may not be a world-beater... but they finished very strong, and rate a lot higher than UTEP...

BYU (PR=6):  7 - 4 - 4 - 5 - 2 - 7 - 5 - 4 - 9 - 10 - 7 - 7


and that is against a much tougher schedule... UTEP's schedule rank is 128, BYU's is 52...

so where are people getting the love for UTEP?  i think they are going to lose by at least 3 TDs, personally...

Agree.. lean to BYU as well.. UTEP has looked awful against any decent team (besides SMU)..

Bronco said this was his best coaching job ever by getting BYU to a bowl game..

i actually over-sold UTEP...


they played 7 games against the bottom 25 of Div I, and another against a Div II team... in those games, they went 4-3!!!  they barely beat Memphis at home, lost to UAB (by 15) and Marshall on the road, and lost to Tulane (by 10) at home...  

that is a dog meat football team if i've ever seen one... it is a crime that they are playing in a Bowl game...

if you notice in the PR's, BYU played their best football down the stretch... BYU beats up bad football teams, and UTEP is a bad football team...

 Glad you brought this up.............I looked at that line & tried to figure out how the could make BYU a dd fav.........& discovered what you did. Not to mention that the lone time I saw utep play they looked pretty bad.

different conferences play different styles and shit teams present schemes and matchups that better conferences havent seen. Thats why a BAD Wyoming team beat Fresno by 7 pts as 10 pt dog in this Bowl last year. PRs are for idiots in Bowl games

UTEP stands for U Take 'Em Points.  You bet the favorite in a UTEP game at your peril. 

There's something in the water in El Paso. 

Literally.

which one of these... doesn't belong here?  which one of these things isn't the same?  Mugg... SNF... WhiteMice... hmmmmm...


last year, i did PRs too... and that's why i had Wyoming beating Fresno SU... one of two ML plays i made, and both hit... and both were based on these same PRs...

that "bad" Wyoming team last year rated out much better than people realized...

interesting... i tend to not concern myself with those kinds of trends, but it might explain why the line isn't a bit higher, and why some cappers are so interested in betting UTEP...

incidentally... this year the underdog in UTEP games went 4-7 ATS... 4-8 if you count their Div II game to start the year... for what it's worth...

Look at last years pre-Xmas shit Bowls. 5 of 6 won outright easily by the dog. Check those PRs. Like I said if you cap Bowls by PRs youll lose your ass. Capping Bowls a lot different than regular season. Tell 19 year old kids playing in theyre 1st Bowl they have no chance against some team that doesnt want to be in the shit Bowl theyre in. A sharp guy like you should know that  
 

also... the MWC is better than the WAC (and was last year, too)... which is another reason i took Wyoming (MWC) over Fresno (WAC) last year... so that argument doesn't seem to apply to your example...

a sharp guy like me also knows that last year was not the first year they started playing bowl games, and that the underdog ML winners is not indicative a past results... but like i said, i was on two of those big ML dog winners, specifically because the PRs showed that the disparity was not as big as people think...

PRs are not my only criterion for betting... if they were, i would not be betting on Fresno, who rates about 7 points lower than Northern Illinois...

it is just one factor among many... but it is very revealing in this game, when you consider who UTEP has beat (and who they have lost to)...

but hey, if you are impressed with a team that goes 4-3 against teams that are not rated in the top 100 of all Div I and Div II schools... you should work that angle...

whatever

Think motivation played a huge role there.. 1st bowl game for Wyoming in quite some time.. practiced hard.. Fresno was down after pre-season BCS buster dreams + Ryan Mathews dreaming of NFL paycheck..

Like i said in post #11. Youre smart guy you tell me SatNite---isnt motivation the #1 factor in capping any Bowl Game. Figure out who has it its money in the bank

it's def. a big factor.. dunno about #1 because sometimes there is just too much talent disparity and the kids care a little (UGA v Hawaii)..

but if motivations are close to the same ( as they appear to be here), they PRs can be helpful in determining the winner as comparing conference to conference can be difficult at times..

just curious... are you basing this one what people on these forums say, or do you speak from years of experience?  i am interested to know how long you have been betting on Bowl Games...

motivation is definitely a factor, but not as big of a factor as most people around here would lead you to believe... over-used, in my opinion, based on what i've seen over the years...

two games where motivation is a big factor this year, are Boise-Utah and Neb-Wash... both dogs should cover, because the motivation disparity in those games is enormous... TCU will also be much more motivated to prove something than Wisconsin...

outside of those games, i think trying to play the motivation angle is mostly a guessing game... 1 good pre-game speech can kill any "motivation" angle really quick!

personally, i think the single biggest key to winning during bowl season is conference disparity... again, just basing that on past experience... a mid-level team from a power conference will generally handle a top level team from a mid-level conference... motivation or not...

(watch what happens in the Georgia - UCF game if you don't believe me)

You are entitled to your opinions and cap however you want. Im just trying to help people win if you want to be pigheaded and bet PRs and SOS thats fine. Like i said if you try to cap Bowl games with 30 day layoffs the same way you do regular season youll lose your ass. Its that simple. And ive been betting since I hung up my pads in 1993 so you do the math. Study stats all you want theres only 3-4 that matter come Bowl time. and I suggest should examine your power conference generalizations a bit further.

Like i say every day its your money. You watch GA they will be lucky to win the game outright  

and Ute and Wash will both get theyre asses plastered to the moon

I looked at this long and hard Apoc...I don't disagree that BYU has much better wins, etc. but decided on a no play since there a 33 other games and I can't see a reason to back either 6-6 squad.

I will pass, but took BYU in my pool picks.

GL

whitemice, you come off as some kind of expert while sighting one years results of 6 bowl games before x-mas to prove your point. apocolypse on the other hand comes off as level headed & like he has done this for a while. good luck guessing which teams are motivated for the most part too.

it's all subjective & conjecture for the most part. you made a reference to hanging up your pads earlier like that's supposed to make you an expert if you did actually played at a high level. i've known a couple guys that played division 1 that didn't know squat about the game other than the fact they could physically play the game.

why not throw your picks for the bowls out there for all to see & we can compare at the end of the bowls. it's one thing to come into someone's thread & disagree but your first post your saying he's an idiot for even using PR's when it's obvious that isn't his only tool or point.

can you read man? threads are out there. and i never came into his thread till he chose to start the bash. If youre going to accuse someone of something maybe know what youre talking about ahole

NO Need to force anything

Very Tough week for BYU with Finals and all