Posted:
#1
Looking at the card today I only see one situation where you can take money with the better starter...That situation is playing the Baltimore Orioles at +132 against Oakland. Risking 1.50 units to win 1.98 units.
Brian Burres has quietly put together a nice little string of games giving the Os 19 2/3 innings while only giving up 14 hits and only walking 7(2-1 in these games). Even though he has a high fly ball rate, I am not worried given McAfee Coliseum's pitcher friendly dimensions. Baltimore's last 4 losses have come by a combined 6 runs, they are hungry to get a win and they have a pitcher very capable of getting them there.
Justin Duchscherer on the other hand, is getting a little too much credit. His 2.40 ERA does not tell the whole story of his 3 starts this year. He has actually given up 9 runs and is only credited for 4. He also has not made it out of the 5th innning of any game because he is still coming off of a strained right biceps injury, so he is on a pitch count. The orioles are also 4-0 in game 2 of a series after losing the first game. I just feel like you are getting a better starter that can go deeper into a game at +.32. With both teams struggling to put runs together, I expect the Os to come with a victory today in a low scoring game.
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