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Thoughts on most overperforming and underperforming teams

Forum: MLB Betting
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Thoughts on most overperforming and underperforming teams
pastafazoola PM pastafazoola
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Posted: 7/14/2010 12:36:30 PM

been looking over trends and noticed that teams that were 'supposed' to be better in the 1st half tend to get 'better" early in the second half, while i will still be capping with a more fundamental analysis slant i'd like to see if this situational analysis sticks, perhaps if i were leaning toward that particular play i'd place the action ..towards that would like to see if some of you agree and if some of you would tend to add some more as well as well as strongly disagree and the REASONS why, not just the usual, "you're an idiot, because XXXs sucks"..underperforming (i.e. about to hit a hot streak) =TORONTO, FLA, Giants, Cubs  and Milw..overperforming teams= (cold streak)=Tampa Bay, LAof Anaheim Angels, San Diego and Pittsburgh, once again best of luck to all of you...

Eddy_Winslow PM Eddy_Winslow
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Posted: 7/14/2010 1:37:48 PM
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Posted: 7/14/2010 11:04:35 PM

One interesting stat that may point out under-valued teams is their winning percentage compared to the expected payout.

For example, a team that has won 40 percent of their games over a given time period has a multiplier of 1/0.4 or 2.50, meaning you would need a payout of 2.50 to break even if you win only 40 percent of the time

If the dog is +130, the payout is 2.30 before deducting the 1.00 bet.

Since 2.30 is less than 2.50, that would rule out betting on the team if you hope to be profitable in the long term, juice notwithstanding.

702underdog PM 702underdog
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Posted: 7/14/2010 11:14:26 PM
I will have to keep an eye on that.
smokenjoke PM smokenjoke
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Posted: 7/14/2010 11:33:28 PM
y tampa cold streak??? like the analysis !!! thx
ratherBgambling PM ratherBgambling
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Hall of Fame
Posted: 7/14/2010 11:51:35 PM
VegasMaxx PM VegasMaxx
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Posted: 7/15/2010 12:00:17 AM

You need to define your reasons for under performing and over performing.

Pitt over performing??????????

pastafazoola PM pastafazoola
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Posted: 7/15/2010 4:02:44 AM
thanks to all that viewed this, must preface this by stating that i am quite the stat geek, following sabremetrics and the branch of it known as xERA..there's a web site of its' namesake out so everyone can read it and digest the info as one would want to..as to Smoke's question as to why Tampa would start a cold streak, i don't mean to predict that they will now be a cold team, what i meant to say is that they are currently over performing and would eventually regress towards a mean..by xERA stats Tampa's offensive xERA is 8th in the AL as their pitching's xERA is 6th..thus their pythagorian W-L record is currently 10% over their expected W-L records via their xERA expectations..i hope that kinda answered that, if it didn't check that site out, very interesting..vegas, i think that should've answered your concerns, the sad thing is that even as badly as Pitts performed, they actually should be even worse via their xERA expectations!
Sharp__Action PM Sharp__Action
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Posted: 7/15/2010 5:11:48 AM
So you're trying to tell us who to play-on and who to play-against in the coming weeks, yet you havent looked at the upcoming schedule for any of the listed teams.

Interesting, one would think you would start there.

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