NBA Totals - Monday 3-12-12

YTD (Overall): 48-34 / 58.5% (+23.1)

4 Unit Bets: (3-1)

3 Unit Bets: (2-2)

2 Unit Bets: (16-8)

1 Unit Bets: (27-23)

Yesterday's Thread: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101293589

Today's Lines / Mine (Actual):

New Jersey vs. Milwaukee - 197.7 (197.5)

Chicago vs. New York - 200.4 (197.5)

New Orleans vs. Charlotte - 189.8 (182.5)

San Antonio vs. Washington - 204.9 (205.5)

Utah vs. Detroit - 189.9 (191.5)

Minnesota vs. Phoenix -  196.9 (198.0)

LA Clippers vs. Boston - 193.4 (186.5)

For today's games, I wanted to use the Milwaukee game as a berometer. I haven't been getting good reads on those lately. As I said in my post yesterday, I'm going to start incorporating recenty events into my lines, rather than rely on an entire season's worth of numbers to read "accurately" for each individual game. I calculated the NJ/MIL line WITHOUT my new data and got 191.5, a -6.0 variance which, according to the 'old' system, would hint at the UNDER. As you can see from my numbers above, with the new data added in, I've calculated the line to a +0.2 variance, nearly dead-on with the posted line.

The data above suggests two plays for tonight: NO/CHA OVER and LAC/BOS OVER, both of which I like and will look into a bit further. But for all other games, the greatest variance is 2.9; all other games with a variance of under 1.7, two games which were within less than a point of the posted line.

I like this for two reasons: (1) using the new data is giving me a more accurate read of not only what teams have done over the course of the season, but what they've trended to recently and (2) it's giving me OVER plays, which I've been missing lately (yesterday not withstanding). Scoring has increased dramatically (no official research having been done) since the All-Star break and using the new data is taking that into account.

Let me know what you guys think - thanks.

Sounds logical to me. Good luck.

I love the incorporation o the analysis! Will tail!

FINAL PLAYS:

LA Clippers vs. Boston OVER 186.5 (2 units)

The only thing preventing me from jumping on the NO/CHA OVER right now is that I'm showing an 85/15 public split on the total. However, the line has moved down (in some places it opened at 184.5). I will continue to monitor this situation and jump when I feel it is appropriate. Five minutes after that, the line will move in favor of my side, so just be patient.

Yes, I was going to suggest that you weigh more recent results into your analysis.  Scoring has increased since the break and you need to take that into account.  I admire your persistence, you keep tinkering until you get it right.  Good luck this evening, I'm thinking you wll get back on track.

Nice pk, I see that one going around the 190 mark. G-L rlawson!

like the c's and clips over today. good luck mate

GL

I am thinking these 2 games will go OVER.

 

New Jersey vs. Milwaukee - 197.7 (197.5)

Chicago vs. New York - 200.4 (197.5)

nsanebeats, azngujuonfire, cougs -

Kings & Cashin - always like when you two are on the same plays (or at least agree with them).

howzuck - I think there's something to be said for what a team has done recently, as we've seen. I didn't mess a WHOLE lot with the system, but began averaging in how teams have done recently along with the numbers I've been using. Tonight is as good of a night as any to get this train back on the tracks. Thanks for the support.

If there is a team that has regressed defensively as of late, it's definitely Chicago. And we all know that those street ballers up at MSG only care about one side of the court. Milwaukee would definitely be a team that trends towards the overs as well. GL. I wish that CHI/NYK plays could be considered a system play, but it most likely won't be.

Is it just me, or has NBA scoring seemed to increase a lot during the last few days? I mean, Boston/Lakers have a 56 pt 3Q.  WTF? 

Maybe it just seems that way.

I like how you added more recent stats into the equation...Lots of scoring lately! Keep up the good work. I think that line for the lob city game is low. LAC rarely scores less than 100 points 2 games in a row. Also Boston has been scoring well recently except that 71 against the sixers.

I've been doing the same thing...I average the season against the L5 against the L10...which gives triple weight to the L5 and double weight to the L10. I was pretty close to yours and the line on most of em' all except two...my NJ/MIL game is much closer to what your old data spat out. Hm. I also work in the average of any games the two teams have played this season, the amount of points the refs have allowed for both home and away, and average points each team has allowed. Maybe I'm missing something good though. I don't do the day's rest jibberish, maybe I should...eh.

Someday I'll break out that variance function and figure out what the result means. For now I'm just satisfied to get pretty close...enjoy seeing others nerd out over the numbers though :)

The only plays I ended up taking on these lines were the ones that I vary quite a bit on, so either I screwed up and shouldn't feel so good about my bets or I'm a mad genius and all should copy my bets :)

I'm also missing a lot many over plays too...maybe my system is exactly your old system? Hm...


MIL vs NJ - 189.4
(Way off...)
1U @ -108 U197.5

NYK vs CHICAGO - 197.3

CHAR vs NO - 182.0

WASH vs SA - 197.3
(Also way off...)
1U @ -105 U205.5

DETROIT vs UTAH - 190.0

MINN vs PHO - 194.4

BOS vs LACLIPPERS - 192.7

composite - that's what I'm trying to adjust for. For whatever reason, there are very few teams who are putting games in their defense's hands. Boston, for example, was pushing the ball up the court all afternoon against the Lakers.

philly - I'm thinking the same thing. Boston should be relatively ready to go for this game today seeing as how there was no travel after yesterday's loss.

RM - The other thing I've tried incorporating into my lines from the beginning are particular match-ups. I've picked out several areas that I find key to points being scored (or not being scored) and compared how the teams do on both sides of the ball. I have then assigned a point value to the difference there; that's how I come up with my numbers each day.

FINAL PLAYS:

LA Clippers vs. Boston OVER 186.5 (2 units)

New Orleans vs. Charlotte OVER 182.5 (3 units)

That will be it for the day.

Thanks!  GL

thank you rlawson for the tireless effort you put into capping and sharing here on the forum

cougs & best -

Where do you find stats for more recent data? I use teammrankings.com, but they only have full season stats. My formula has been way off recently, projected way too many unders.

I use the same site; if you look at the different columns within each stat, there are two columns called "Last 3" and "Last 1." That's the only detail I can find there; I haven't looked around for the last five or ten games anywhere.

This is based on covers.com last 5 games avg between two teams LAC/Bos 197;  NO/Char 188.  Over on both.

LA Clippers vs. Boston OVER 186.5 (2 units)

 

 

New Orleans vs. Charlotte OVER 182.5 (3 units)

Do you use Last 3 for your formula?

Boston in B2B has really strong Under tendency. Wouldn't go near that to be honest.