dmitean -I remember taking over on the Bos home game against LAL and they went overtime and it's under...so this time at Lakers I took the under and got burned. but just the last few games scores have been up.
mmeiselman731 I used last 5 with covers.com
I wouldn't disagree with this statement, but I still think OVER is the way to go tonight. Since the All-Star break, Boston has a 6-2 record in favor of the over. One of those under plays, however, as you've suggested, came on the second leg of their only back to back. I'm going to count on the fact that Boston didn't have to do any traveling to help out a bit on the energy level tonight. The Clippers have also gone over this total (186.5) seven of their eight games since the All-Star break.
Unlike a lot of people on this board, I appreciate constructive criticism. I've seen plenty of people on here talk about tailing me and losing, but there's only so much I can do. Had the same people been following me since Game 1, they'd be up quite a bit. If you see or think of anything you think could help adjust this system to the changing pace of the second half, I'd love to hear it.
There are several reasons I like this play tonight:
(1) Just looking at the average PPG on offense and defense, you'd be looking at a total of approximately 187.0.
(2) Both of these teams give up a lot of assist relative to how many turnovers they force, which to me means few wasted possessions for the offenses.
(3) New Orleans is averaging 187.0 total points per game since the AS break; Charlotte is at 190.0.
(4) The only thing worse than the two offenses we'll see on the court tonight are the defenses. Both defenses are giving up over 5% eFG compared to what the offenses normally shoot. If the offenses play so poorly normally and can still average the totals listed above, I'd imagine scoring to only increase from what we've seen.
I've heard of that information before, but I've never looked at it. I prefer to use hard data; not some analysis that gives the talking-heads at ESPN something to argue about. But, if there is some useful stuff in there, point me in the direction and I'd love to give it a look.
Which of these stats would you look at specifically? Using Charlotte as an example, they are last in Offensive Efficiency and 2nd to last in Defensive Efficiency. New Orleans, on the other hand, is 27th in OE while ranked 20th in DE. What do the numbers (New Orleans OE = 96.8, DE = 102.8) mean relative to the projected total for the game?
And no I'm not working for the books - I'm not sure that they're too concerned that I just upped my unit size from $10 to $20 a couple of weeks ago :)
Done. Thanks for putting that info together - hopefully something positive can come out of it!
Eventually the lines will start reflecting this, I just hope I didn't wait too long to start incorporating the new data into my numbers. Early in the year, it seemed like UNDERS was the way to go. Perhaps all of the OVERS the second half of the season is nature's way of balancing things out.
I understand what you're saying 100%. I was nervous about changing anything too much, however, I feel like this change isn't necesarilly BECAUSE of the losing days. The change I'm making, IMO, could have been helpful the entire time I've been using it because it incorporates not only season-long trends, but also recent ones. As far as the data I've been using (and will continue to use), I haven't changed it one bit. I appreciate your concern and it has for sure crossed my mind. I feel minor tweaking to the systme is necessary to keep up with the change-in-pace we've seen over the last few weeks.
As far as keeping trolls, etc. out of my threads, I feel that I've been lucky to have attracted not only a MATURE audience, but also a REALISTIC audience. There are comments that people are upset about losing - but why wouldn't they be? Instead of egging those people on like some people do in these threads, I just say "yeah, that sucks," because it does. I'm betting these games just like my followers are. I attribute the information exchanged and the mature tone in my threads to the contributors, not just the person that started the thread.
OLD NUMBERS:
New Jersey vs. Milwaukee - 191.5 (UNDER play)
Chicago vs. New York - 189.6 (UNDER play)
New Orleans vs. Charlotte - 187.3 (OVER lean)
San Antonio vs. Washington - 196.4 (UNDER play)
Utah vs. Detroit - 191.3 (N/A)
Minnesota vs. Phoenix - 195.7 (UNDER lean)
LA Clipppers vs. Boston - 191.2 (OVER lean)
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