Mistakes we should all learn from eachother

I went 1-1 +2 units Weds but here I am willing to analyze my mistake and hopefully we all learn from each other.

1. My 1st foremost idea is to bet against a team after a emotional win.This is not pseudoscience "system" or whatever but plain logical.
Human factor-What inflates must deflate!! and usually happens right away.
All day long I thought about the Timberwolves-6 perfect spot against Thunder coming off from a win but instead I read too much trash BS on this forum which kept me playing Min  instead I took the under and lost.
The Utah was obvious and won
Min was obvious and won!!

I am just sharing my thoughts sort of like diary trying to understand why I hesitated on MIN.
The answear? Certain capper had OK on his "system" therfore it made me second guess myself.

One should follow his 1st insticts.Trust the knowlegde based on experiance.

I am determined to make money and that's the final goal.
Thanks for reading this post and feel free to add your experiance.

Do not bet against raptors 1Q
they rule the 1Q

Thanks generally I don't bet Q's but halves.Interesting though I will look at their past 10 games to see how many times they were a head at 1st Q. They maybe something there.

You have a point.I am just pissed that I did not play MIN because certain Asian guy had OK in his "system"
FK that.One must trust his intuition.

The first thing we should be asking before each game is, is the team I am betting on motivated?  Football and Basketball are so similar in that a teams need to have a reason to get up for a game.   A good example is when the Skins beat the Eagles and Boys back to back and then lost to the Rams the next week.   Or the Celts...destroying everyone and now they are just going through the motions barely eeking out wins and losing to teams they shouldn't.  The Cavs were doing that for a while but seem to be back on track now.

Yesterday, why would the Rockets get up for the Sixers when they had the Champs the next day? Lackluster effort yesterday against an average team and boom beat the champs tonight.  Knicks beating the Celts at home then going on the road and losing to OKC.  That's what basketball is all about...motivation.   I think if we can pinpoint which team has a reason to get up for a game and which doesn't we will be very successful in the long run overall.

Another example like you stated chess was Utah...an obvious one.  NOH just beat the Lake Show.  Now they have to go to Utah the next night.  Where's the motivation?  We just beat the class of the west and now we have to go to Mormon country?  Bah!

Roid, i feel your logic, but it often doesnt apply to teams in must-win situations. I can give you a million examples from the NBA, NFL, MLB where a team ABSOLUTELY has to win to make the playoffs and they're playing a dogshit team with nothing to play for, and the favorite craps the bed (Tampa Bay vs. Raiders comes immediately to mind! )

Great post.I actually do like the idea of brainstorm this angles collectively before each day and I am certain that collectively we can pick winners.Yes Motivation and fatigue factor are major and let down spots are major in my view.

what did u find?
and they are almost always dogs so that is some great ML on the first quarter

and orlando yesterday against wizards when they had the hawks(who they lost to earlier in the season) the next day

Sink I did not look yet but I will for sure.

My strong initial lean is Clippers+13 That's a hell of points for a team which hang in there very close recently against very formidable opponents

01/06/09	@DAL	L 102-107	W 12.5	O 185
01/04/09	DET	L 87-88	W 6	O 174
01/02/09	@PHO	L 98-106	W 13	O 199

Do we see a pattern? All ATS wins

• Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater.
• Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater.
• Clippers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference.
• Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
• Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Clippers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.

This is my logical deduction for tomorrow

the clippers have covered 3straight whitout baron davis
eric gordon has been great

Yes I only mean the point where we are at in the NBA season...I stay away from the NFL usually in the last 2 weeks.  I guess there is a difference between motivation and outright choking.

As for the fatigue factor...how much is it really a factor in the NBA?  I would understand hockey given how rough it is, but NBA players seem to be in great shape cardiovascular speaking.  I don't think  back to back nights are really a factor unless it's the 4th game in 5 night variety or 5th in 7 days, something like that.  A good point is the Rockets.  Played the night before and again beat a rested Celtics tonight.  Philly beat the Rockets last night and then a rested Bucks team on the road.

I still think the key is motivation.  These prima donnas need a reason to come to the arena and play hard.  I think the Cavs got bored of blowing everyone out and went through a swoon which included two very close games to WAS.  Now that that debacle is over, they realized oh shit we better pick our game up and what happens they win by 30 tonight.  It's just a matter of time before the Celts start doing the same thing.

As for tomorrow's games, all 4 have motivation and that is not to be embarrassed on National TV.  Clipps look good because they are shorthanded I think.  Teams seem to catch the other by surprise when they are missing key players.  Bench players work hard because they want to prove they can be more than bench players (unless your name is Will Solomon).

It is a double edge sword my friend.

Lets say you make a pick, and then lose.
You go onto covers and then realize something important about that game that you did not know.

Then you say to yourself, dayme! i should have at least checked covers.com to see what other people were thinking.

it goes up and it goes down. trick is to manage well and lose as little as possible when its on the down turn and maximize the winning when it is on the up.

very well said ppl. i say go with your gut feel first. This topic has cleared the mistakes gamblers like me should learn from.
Last night I bet on the wiz, the hawks and the thunders, which i admit were mostly weighed by the stuff that i read here, the rest is history. Not surprisingly i also bet on the cavs too because i thought the bobcats were tired coming into the game after the emotional OT win vs the celtics. (I didnt read any posts here about the cavs being a major pick or somebody else lobbying for it, i just went for it based on how strongly i felt about their chances).

Bravo! Couldn't have said it better. The brain drain after a few hours of analyzing and second-guessing yourself, to be followed by the tension of watching the game, the desperation of seeing your bet burned by just one stupid play, one garbage basket, or losing by just half a point on the total, then the emotional letdown after losing...It's just too mentally and emotionally taxing, even when I'm winning. 

Dude, that'd be 1Hit_TakeAll you're referring to.  I based my OKC pick partly on his system, partly because I've been making money on OKC so far. Like you, I lost that one. No system's perfect, and no amount of analysis can assure you of a sure win, so no whining after a loss.  Actually, 1Hit's got a pretty decent win-loss record, if you'd take care to scroll back all the way to November. Would you be bitching after following his pick and then winning? I thought so. Man up and move on, no scapegoats!

I was honest in my post.What you call whining,bitching I call self criticism.Its not against anyone but myself.You are free to tail.I never been tailer-call it a alpha male syndrome