Posted:
#1
Previous plays:
WEC 41: +9 units (hit Brown by decision +800'ish)
STRIKEFORCE Lawler vs Shields: +7 units
UFC 99 - -0.3 units
TUF 9 Finale: - 4 units
FFI Ultimate Chaos: -0.06 Units
STRIKEFORCE Lawler vs Shields: +7 units
UFC 99 - -0.3 units
TUF 9 Finale: - 4 units
FFI Ultimate Chaos: -0.06 Units
UFC 100 Plays
I turned winnings nights into losing nights the last few events by betting on fighters I haven't really studied a lot of the tapes on. For instance the TUF 9 finalists, Brett Cooper in FFI, etc. So I've decided to no longer make any bets on fights in which both fighters are relatively unknown / don't have a lot of tapes out unless I'm playing the odds.
Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir - This is a fight that I'm really looking forward to. Mir has been looking great during his training camp for this fight. He appears to have leaned out and put on some muscle since his last outting ( https://i30.tinypic.com/s64sxw.jpg ). Mir comes into this fight with a lot of experience and a solid submission game while Lesnar is comming with a TON of athleticism, speed (for his size), and power. In a way, this fight is almost like one of the old school UFC matches in which we saw a cagey Royce Gracie go up against someone like Kimo who had a lot of physical gifts but a rather undeveloped fight game. Of course there are some twists in this fight. The sport has evolved so much that such a comparison seems too simple. For instance, Lesnar has a ton of amatuer wrestling credentials.
I think if Frank Mir comes into this fight with the proper gameplan, he can pull out a win. He has a similar reach to Brock and brought in a few sparring partners into his camp that have the same reach as Brock. If Mir stays on the outside, using jabs and low kicks while moving back at the first sign of a Lesnar offense, I think Mir can frustrate Lesnar into charging forward and exposing himself just a little too much. That might also give Mir a good oppurtunity to take the fight to the ground. The real question is, will that happen? We saw Mir use that exact strategy against Hardonk. He jabbed and threw low kicks, then the second Hardonk would mount an offense, Mir would quickly move back out of striking range. Hardonk eventually got frustrated and moved in too much allowing Mir to get the fight to the ground.
Mir's best chance in this fight is to take the fight to the ground. Lesnar's submission game is rather undeveloped and Mir will always have that chance for a flash submission like in their first fight. Lesnar's size and explosiveness makes a standup strategy against him risky. Anyone thats taken highschool physics knows that "Force = Mass x Acceleration" ... and Brock certainly has a lot of mass and the ability to explode forward. The result is that he can generate so much force in his punches that even a grazing shot can knock someone out. This is where my concern with Mir comes in. In the UFC prefight hype interview, Mir claimed that he could beat Lesnar in a striking match 99 out of a 100 times. He called himself an imposing striker (mentioning his KO of Nog) and gave me the impression that he might just be considering a standup strategy against Brock. If he does that, all it would take is 1 mistake on his part for Brock to catch him.
I see this fight ending rather quick ... most likely in the first 3 rounds. Both fighters have questionable gas tanks. We saw Lesnar look very tired against a smaller Randy Couture by the 2nd round of their fight. Infact, the much smaller and over-the-hill Couture was able to muscle and control Lesnar against the cage mainly due to Lesnar being out of breath ( https://img44.imageshack.us/img44/8660/vlcsnap169934.jpg ). Gas tank issues aside, both fighters have the tools to end the fight early. Lesnar has the KO power and Mir has his submission game.
I'm going to give Mir the benefit of the doubt and assume he's only saying that he'll stand with Lesnar to throw out some false info. My pick for for this fight is Mir inside the decision. With Brock's power, I still see him winning the fight maybe 45 out of 100 times. I'm picking Mir as a 55/45 favorite.
Bets:
Mir ITD +220 - 1 unit to win 2.2 units
Parlaying "Fight won't go the distance" + "not Alves by decision" with 5-10 of my baseball bets on Friday + saturday.
Mir ITD +220 - 1 unit to win 2.2 units
Parlaying "Fight won't go the distance" + "not Alves by decision" with 5-10 of my baseball bets on Friday + saturday.
Georges St-Pierre vs. Thiago Alves - Alves has been on a tear lately absolutely destroying anyone the UFC throws at him. I really like Alves's striking, especially his low kicks. The way in which Serra knocked GSP out also opens up the question of GSP's chin. If Serra can KO him, Alves certainly has that power. Something else in Alves's favor is the great camp he has in ATT.
With that said, an over-the-hill Hughes who came into their fight on short notice was still able to get the fight to the ground and stay ontop of Alves for about 2 minutes in their first fight. Hughes didn't have the G&P to do anything with that position but GSP certainly does. GSP's takedowns are great and he has the ability to hurt opponents on the ground. I feel that this will play the deciding role in their fight. The Serra KO will probably have GSP being very tentative standing looking to avoid any real exchange. I see GSP taking the fight to the ground and stopping Alves with G&P by the middle rounds. If Alves does win, it's likely going to be by KO. I just don't see Alves landing enough shots during the 5 rounds to win the fight without KO'ing GSP (hense the "not alves by 5 round decision" bet above).
Bets:
Even though I think GSP is gonna take this, I feel that there is a lot of value in a +330 Alves ITD bet. Recent pics out of GSP's training camp also appear to show an injured elbow ( https://i28.tinypic.com/mvqlw8.jpg , https://www.combatlifestyle.com/pics/albums/070809mandalay/1004.jpg ). If that right elbow really is injured, it might effect his punches or G&P.
Alves ITD - 0.3 units to win 1 unit.
Even though I think GSP is gonna take this, I feel that there is a lot of value in a +330 Alves ITD bet. Recent pics out of GSP's training camp also appear to show an injured elbow ( https://i28.tinypic.com/mvqlw8.jpg , https://www.combatlifestyle.com/pics/albums/070809mandalay/1004.jpg ). If that right elbow really is injured, it might effect his punches or G&P.
Alves ITD - 0.3 units to win 1 unit.
Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago - I see Fitch winning this easily, but at -470 there's no value to betting this. I did add him to my parlay of the night posted later on.
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