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Welcoming the new 2008-2009 NFL season
2008 preseason record : 0-0
To all who post , view , and contribute on this forum
best of luck for this upcoming season ...
I stayed away from HOF game and yesterday I dove in
with a package bet taking all dogs and all unders...
With my lines that got me a 7-3 .
I am not going to post 10 picks and not going to take credit for unposted picks either .
My strongest pick would have been Kansas City even coming in with an 0-8 SU & ATS record , it was clear by Herm Edwards statement that the emphasis would be there this year to win in the preseason given the terrible start from last year ...
It took a final drive after squandering the lead , but KC got its victory nevertheless .
KC wanted it more than the Bears in the end .
why mention this ?
because trends are only part of the picture , though I use them extensively during preseason.
Week 1 preseason trends show a bias towards the Underdog and also towards the Under .
Underdogs have a solid 90-67 overall mark (57%) in week one ( from 2 min warning )
Also from same location ...we have the following applicable trends
I used to some degree last year for a succesful preseason campaign...
- Home underdogs are 77-49 (61%)
- Home teams off less than 10 win years as favorites against prior year Good teams are just 32-54 (37%)
- Home underdogs versus a "non prior year Good team" are 38-20 (66%)
- In Week one, POOR prior season teams are 11-20 against the spread at home against POOR or AVERAGE away teams
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