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2008 NFL Preseason week 1

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Welcoming the new 2008-2009 NFL season
 
2008 preseason record : 0-0
 
To all who post , view , and contribute on this forum
best of luck for this upcoming season ...
 
I stayed away from HOF game and yesterday I dove in
with a package bet taking all dogs and all unders...
With my lines that got me a 7-3 .
 
I am not going to post 10 picks and not going to take credit for unposted picks either .
 My strongest pick would have been Kansas City even coming in with an 0-8 SU & ATS record , it was clear by Herm Edwards statement that the emphasis would be there this year to win in the preseason given the terrible start from last year ...
It took a final drive after squandering the lead , but KC got its victory nevertheless .
KC  wanted it more than the Bears in the end .
 
why mention this ?
 
because trends are only part of the picture , though I use them extensively during preseason.
 
Week 1 preseason trends show a bias towards the Underdog and also towards the Under . 
 
Underdogs have a solid 90-67 overall mark (57%) in week one ( from 2 min warning )
 
Also from same location ...we have the following applicable trends
I used to some degree last year for a succesful preseason campaign...
  1. Home underdogs are 77-49 (61%)
  2. Home teams off less than 10 win years as favorites against prior year Good teams are just 32-54 (37%)
  3. Home underdogs versus a "non prior year Good team" are 38-20 (66%)
  4. In Week one, POOR prior season teams are 11-20 against the spread at home against POOR or AVERAGE away teams

 

 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #2

Preseason Games from 1997 to 2007

Category
Won-Lost (ATS)
Win%
Home Teams
326-341
48.9%
Home Favorites
249-292
46.0%
Home Favorites of -1 to -2.5
54-55
49%
Home Favorites of -3
62-76
45%
Home Favorites of -3.5 to -6.5
119-139
46%
Home Favorites of -7 or more
14-22
39%
Home Underdogs
77-49
61.1%
Home Underdogs of +0 to +2.5
37-28
57%
Home Underdogs of +3
21-8
72%
Home Underdogs of +3.5 or more
19-13
59%

 
Captain
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an explanation from 2 min warning of what constitutes poor, average , or good teams :
 
  • Good -- teams with a 10 or more wins in the prior regular season
  • Average -- teams with 7 to 9 wins
  • Poor -- teams with less than 7 wins
 
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Posted: #4
Roberto--
 
Great to see around these parts.
 
Good Luck this season.
 
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Posted: #5

Nice work Roberto.......It's great to see all the great cappers back this season...I am looking forward to a great year for all of.......Looking forward to viewing your research as well........

Maybe you can hit that hot streak again.....GL BRO

 
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The best stats/trends capper in the business....
 
 
 
 On what I know will be yet another solid year.
 
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Good to have you back roberto!
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
Thanks ...
Now regarding the Philadelphia- pittsburgh game >>
results from last preseason for Pitt >>

Pre-Season

Thursday 08/30/07 @ Carolina W 19-3 Pre-Week 4 W 3 U 34
Sunday Night 08/26/07 Philadelphia W 27-13 Pre-Week 3 W -3 O 35
Saturday 08/18/07 @ Washington W 12-10 Pre-Week 2 L -2.5 U 33
Saturday 08/11/07 Green Bay L 9-13 Pre-Week 1 L -6 U 34
Sunday Night 08/05/07 New Orleans W 20-7 Pre-Week HOF W -3 U 33.5
The Under has gone 8-1 over past 2 years for the Steelers and did not give up more than 16 points in all 5 games ...though ironically it was against Philadelphia where the game went over ...Philadelphia did go over 3 out of 4 last year , but went 4 out of five to the Under prior year ..
 
Over all when the  line is 33.5 coming in to this preseason we have 6-10 to the Under and 1-5 more recntly
 
Woth making a play on the Under for 1 unit
so it is :
 
 Pitt- Phil UNDER 33.5 ( 1 unit )
 
 
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Actually , Pittsburgh ( I correct ) did not give up more than 13 points in those 5 games .
 
Anyways ,  first official play is on the UNDER 33.5 ( 1 unit )
 
Good luck...
and future posters !
 
 
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Posted: #10
GL Roberto!!!
 
 
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All the best in the upcoming season Roberto and good to see you posting again
 
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Posted: #12
BOL this season
 
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good to see you back love those trends very good stat guy
 
 
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Captain
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on the SF-Oak game ...
lots of expectations that the new offense of Mike Martz will result in tons of passing by the battling quarterbacks and result in more points .
I see more of a conservatice approach to minimize mistakes and turnovers as these will be more telling of who gets to be the 49ers starting QB in the regular season .
Does anyone really think  it will be none other than Alex Smith in the end ?  
As for Oakland , I expect a good dose of running all day ...and
the defenses rule the day .
 
SF - Oak Under 34 ( 1 unit )
 
 
 
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Never a doubt. Thank for the free money. I owe you one...

 
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First pick held up today ...and the SF - Oak Under 34 is pending...
As for tomorrow , nothing certain , though Tampa Bay and Dallas are in the mix ...I also need closer look at the totals for Sat games.
I may not have a chance to post ...
Regardless , I hope you all have a good weekend ...
 
 
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Robert i hope you get time to post tomorrow as my luck has been horrible this week and your leans are better than my best cappping at the moment/

thanks for tonights insights

 
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Posted: #20
Final scores :
 
Pittsburgh 16 Philadelphia 10  Under 33.5 
Oakland 18 San Francisco 6  Under 34     
 
Good night ...
 
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Posted: #21
good stuff.
 
 
get at em bro.
 
best to ya this season.
 
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I will lick your balls if you win another tomorrow night. LOL
 
Good job stud
 
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Great info as always RF, glad you hit those 2 Unders.
 
 
 
Look forward to your insight this year. 
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