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Trends & Things Monday Oct 1st 2007 NFL

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Hey everyone ....
 
I am just recapping missed opportunities from Sunday's thread ...and adding whatever I had for MNF on this one for easier read ....
Everyone of course makes their own decisions ...in the end ....
 
Let me start by saying that the underfeated streak for the Underdog trend Pick is over ...
It now stands @ 9-1
 
I had a strong feeling it would ..but still tried to make the best choice available in the end ....
I will thwow out there ..what I may have missed ...in no particualr order ....
I used that trend selection as my only POW sunday ...and given the results of my other picks on the site ( they all hit ) ...I no doubt regret not having a part on more picks than one ....
 
It's ok ...it still only one loss ...
 
>>>>
 
First the Monday night info ....>>>
 
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Posted: #2
QUOTE Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

2004-2007 >>>
 
Home Underdogs on Monday night have gone
8-6-0 ATS & 7-7 SU
 
Home Underdogs ( >= 7 ) on Monday night have gone 2-0 ATS & 1-1 SU
 
2002-2007 >>>
 
Home Underdogs on Monday night have gone 12-12 ATS & 11-13 SU
 
Home Underdogs (>=7 ) on Monday night have gone
3-0 ATS & 2-1 SU
 
***************************************************************
 

New England Patriots (3-0, 3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2, 1-1-1)

Cincinnati would appear to have faint hope when it hosts New England, the hottest team on Planet NFL.

However, the Bengals have 'covered' six of eight as dogs of six points or more and the Patriots are a dismal 4-17 ATS when playing their second road game of the season.

 New England is 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU wins and 20-5-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less.

The Pats are also 9-1 ATS off a double-digit division win. Cincinnati is 15-32 ATS at home in September.

The Bengals have failed to 'cover' seven of eight versus non-division opponents when playing on Monday.

********************************************************************

 
Captain
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Posted: #3
QUOTE Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

Last scenario where on MNF there was a Road Favorite of 7 or more , Chicago Bears were favroed by 10 over the hosting Arizona Cardinals
 
Chicago managed to win 24-23 ..and not cover
 
Before that , it was in 2004
 
New England visited Miami as a 9.5 point favorite ...and went on to lose the game by a score of 29-28
 
It should also be noted the similarity of the situation from last year involving the Chicago Bears and this year's New England Patriots >>>
 
On week 8 2006 , Chicago was favored by 16.5 points over the SF 49ers  same spread as New England was favored over the Bills last week )
The Bears won the game 41-10 easily covering the large spread
Then >>>
 
On week 9 Chicago traveled , to face another conference opponent as a 10 point Favorite in Arizona on MNF ...
Chicago managed a 1 point victory
 
The time before that , it involved Denver on the road giving up 7 points to Baltimore who covered the 7 point spread and tacked on 11 more
 
some information ...compliments of DogPlaya ...
 
****************************************************************
 
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Posted: #4
you make up a lot of people decisions on here
 
the undefeated streak was awesome, thank you for all your insight and everything you put into this forum. your a very valuable asset to us all here,
 
 
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Posted: #5
QUOTE Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

New England @ Cincinnati
 
Dogs of 6.5 or more are 16-7 ATS a week before their bye since 2002
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU last 6 years before a bye
MNF Home teams are 12-8 ATS since 2006
Carson Palmer is 2-5 ATS as a Home Dog
MNF Home Dogs are 4-3 ATS since 2006
 
Road Teams favored by more than 7 are 38-63-3 ATS ( 37 % )  from 1997-2007
 
New England is 2-7-1 ATS last 10 games as Favorite of 7 or more
& 6-4 SU
New England as a Road Favorite of less than 7 is 14-4 ATS
Of these 4 losses ...3 were SU
 
*****************************************************************
 
QUOTE Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS as Dogs of 6 or more
 
New England is 4-17 ATS when playing second road game of the season
New England is 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU wins
New England is 20-5-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less.
New England is  9-1 ATS off a DD division win.
New England is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 3.5-10
New England is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing prior game
New England is 7-0 ATS last 7 after scoring more than 30 points prior game
Cincinnati is 1-10 ATS last 11 games in week 4
 
 
******************************************
 
Captain
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Posted: #6
QUOTE Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

This is provided by winning Picks and states the following :
 
Teams that win by a margin of greater than 20 points for 2 consecutive weeks and find themselves a Road Favs the third week will not cover the spread at a rate of 90 % ...since 1996
These teams often lose the game outright ...
 
This situation usually happens at an average of about 2 to 3 times  a year ...
The last time a team won two consecutive weeks by a margin of greater than 20 points and ended up covering the third week against the spread was in 2001 with the St Louis Rams .
 
Not having checked the numbers , but going with the assumption
that this occurs then on average 2 to 3 times a year ( as they stated )  ....since 1996
we would have between 22 and 33 such games ...
 
If we use the medium of 27 ...and apply the conservative percentage of under   90 %  ...then we would have >>>
 
Teams that have won 2 consecutive games by over 20 points , and are Road Favs are 6 - 21 ATS last 27 ...since 1996
conversely ...
 
Home Dogs are 21-6 ATS ( 77.8 % ) vs opponents off 2 consecutive wins of > 20 points  since 1996
 
This is an estimate .....
 
Based on this : Play on cincinnati + the points
 
 
 

someone disputed these numbers ...as I stated I never checked them ...

winningpicks picked cincinnati and used this " blowout trend " to validate ...but didn't offer specific numbers ...only that it has hit at around 90 % ....

 

Also TRILEX  has a similar play >>>>>>>>>>

 
Captain
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Posted: #7
Thread >>>>from trilex
Twin Peaks System (Spot Pl...
 
A very rare play - Maybe only one or two per season
 
"Bet against a team that has won and covered back to back games and scored 30 or more in each game while allowing 14 or less in each game AFTER Week 1."
 
The system is 7-1 since 1998.
 
Recent Stats
2006
Week 4 Chicago 37 Seattle 6
Week 5 Chicago 40 Buffalo 7
Week 6 Chicago 24 Arizona 23
 
This was a Monday night game - Chicago no COVER-Win
 
2005 - No Play
 
2004
Indy 41-10
Indy 41-9
Indy 51-24 - System Loss (Indy covered)
 
2003 - No Play
 
Previous to these the system was 6-0 since 1998
 
There were a pair of rough years
1996 - 1-4
1997 - 2-3
 
Prior to that the system was 16-2 since 1980
 
The play for week 4 is Cinncy to cover
 
Week 2 NE38-14
Week3  NE38-7
 
Good Luck
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
and the O/U again from the previous thread ...Trends & Things 2007-2...
 ...comments >>>>>>>>>
 
 I am now  looking at the Under on MNF though as history is on the side of the under ....with no MNF matchups going over when the line is set @ above 52 since 1996 ( 3 unders )
and no overs have been registered since 1996 for either club when the total has been set at >= 52 since 1996 ( 5 unders combined )
The Under seems to be the right play ....
Line is climbing as well...which I love to see
 
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Posted: #9
ok ..That's all I have for Monday ...
 
now will bump a few missed opportunities ...
this will help me in the future when I review what works ...
and for others  to see...>>>>>
 
 
 
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Posted: #10
QUOTE Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

From two minute Warning >>>
 
 
Week Four

The Ultimate Prediction Machine!

The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup five-thousand times using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. Each simulated score is compared against the line on the game to assess who would have covered and the numbers are compiled to give a confidence value to the chances of each team covering.

NFL Week 4 , 2007
Matchup
Line
(home)
Pick
Cover %
Kansas City at San Diego
-11.5
Kansas City
79 %


Analysis: the simulations show a very high confidence value in Kansas City covering the large spread this week. While three games doesn't provide the sample you would ideally want, we have found the UPM to be predictive this early (and in fact, it's been an excellent week two predictor).

Favor: Kansas City +11.5


This two punch combination maybe should have helped Kansas City take the underdog trend pick of the week ...

this information was at least out there........

 

***********************************************************************

 
Captain
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Posted: #11
QUOTE Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring KANSAS CITY in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 58.9% of the time since 1992. (103-72)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 70.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (19-8)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN DIEGO games 55.2% of the time since 1992. (95-77)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN DIEGO games 53.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (15-13)
Edge=KANSAS CITY
 
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Posted: #12
best to ya roberto,  i like cincy on the side but i am on the over.  as always you do a nice job of investing wisely and continued success.  by the way, when i told you about the buffalo and detroit plays i am finding that when the parlay sheets go around at my work when one sheet has a spread dif of 3 or more points i take the dog and so far its 6-1.  and also when there is a game missing from the sheet it goes under, only happened twice this season so far but its 2-0.  will check you out ater in the week and let you know who those situations line up with.
 
goodpickings bro
 
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Posted: #13
wizeguysports .....You had the right idea when you posted this early ..
 
QUOTE Originally Posted by Wizeguysports:

Roberto....!!!!   a little help here man...

you post some of best trends and system here at covers.. I found these at another forum and look overwhelmingly good IF they are accurate...  Based on the system I noticed the giants fall into both systems.....

Play on a home dog of 3 or less points, off a SU away dog win versus an opponent off a SU win. System is 18-4 ATS.

Giants would be the play

This system is to play on all home dogs off a SU away win, versus an opponent off a SU home win. These ferocious home dogs are 57-18 ATS in the past 10 years. This simple little system cranks out winners at a rate of 76%.

Giants would be the play

What do you think bro?

*********************************************************
 
This was foloowed by this response from  bulubulu :
 
QUOTE Originally Posted by bulubulu:
Wizeguys,
 
System looks good
GIANTS 7-0 ATS as home dogs off dog win vs. opponent off win (compliments Mark Lawrence's Black Book)
 
****************************************************************
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Here is how the top betted team in the NFL fared ....
Answer ..not well..as always .>>>
This what we had to pick Atlanta ....>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
 
Posted: 9/27/2007 3:41:56 AM
I featured the contrarian play last week >>
This angle is essentially  " Fade the Public"  theory >>>
 
  • Contrarian Betting - back the teams that are not getting bet in the thinking that the linemakers are smart and either laying a trap for the public, happy to take a stand on the game, as they wouldn't willingly accept exposure on a matchup if they didn't feel they had the "right side."

    • according to two minute warning ...based on 2005 year numbers only ...(not much statistical data to draw from ..) and a year of the favorite ...taking a side that draws less than 20 % of the action will be profitable .

    As for what day of the week has the most meaningful numbers, they don't have any hard research.

    However last season the teams with less than 20% of the bets on Tuesday fared very well against the spread.

    On Week 4 , based on Tuesday's percentages the team with the highest percentage of backing is :

    Houston ( the play would be on Atlanta )

    next in line were GB ( play on Minnesota )

     and Pitssburgh ( play on Arizona )

     
    Captain
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    Posted: #15
    and really .....Had I simply gone with the single most prevailing stat backing a team for the underdog play of the week ....
    I should have gone with this one >>>>
     
     
     
    NY Jets (1-2, 1-1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-3, 1-2)
     
    Buffalo Bills  are 8-1 ATS as Home Dogs vs NY .
     However,
    NY  Jets are  9-4-1 ATS  as Road favs overall.
     
     Bills are 12-2 ATS off a SU division loss
     
     Bills are 11-1 ATS after playing New England since 1999

    Buffalo is 5-2 ATS vs NY Jets
    NY Jets are 3-9-1 ATS when facing teams that are under .500. 

     Home Team is 7-2 SU in this matchup
    Jets are 5-1 ATS as a favorite under Eric Mangini.
    Bills are 9-4 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
     
     
     
    Buffalo may have been the choice ...
     
    That same stat of 11-1 ATS backed Tennessee ...on last Monday night .....
     
     
     
    Captain
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    Posted: #16
    Be aware of these monster single  trends ..for whatever they are worth >>>
     
    As I am not making further trend choices this week ...and you can review the info yourself >>>>
     
     
     
    Cincinnati is 1-10 ATS last 11 games in week 4
    New England is 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU wins
     
     
    anyway .....they are all  up there......
     
    Good night ....
     
    I'll be quite busy the next few days ...If I have last minute stats tomorrow morning ..I'll drop them off ...for you ...If not ....I may see you all on later this week ....
    best of luck .....
    on your plays !
     
     
    Covers Rehab
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    Posted: #17
    You taking anything tomorrow Roberto?
     
    Captain
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    Posted: #18
    Quote Originally Posted by kalind:

    best to ya roberto,  i like cincy on the side but i am on the over.  as always you do a nice job of investing wisely and continued success.  by the way, when i told you about the buffalo and detroit plays i am finding that when the parlay sheets go around at my work when one sheet has a spread dif of 3 or more points i take the dog and so far its 6-1.  and also when there is a game missing from the sheet it goes under, only happened twice this season so far but its 2-0.  will check you out ater in the week and let you know who those situations line up with.
     
    goodpickings bro
     

    Yes Kalind...you did mention Detroit ..and  Buffalo....both excellent choices my friend ...

    I beleive you have a better handle on the totals than I do ...and frankly, it would not surprise me to see the combination of Cinci and the over hit ..as everyone expects New England to hang at least 30 points on the Bengals ...so if that happens ...and Cinci covers then the over should hit ...

    I better hope New England has a lot of stalled drives and settles for field goals and ends up with less than 28 points for the day .....

    How does 26-24  New England sound ...?

     
    Captain
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    Posted: #19
    Quote Originally Posted by footballjunkie4:

    You taking anything tomorrow Roberto?

    Probably Motrin & Alka Seltzer followed by Prozac

     
    Prospect
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    Posted: #20
    Roberto,
    What you need to look at most importantly this game is the trend of Cincinnati rushing less than 90 yards previous week and their results the next week....they hardly ever cover the next week!  Also, Rudi Johnson is a big part of the offense and i dont care what people think, in the NFL, if a GOOD defense knows you are passing and does not have to respect the run, opposing offenses always struggle....Prime Example is just last nights game Philly Vs Giants without starting running back...(Giants 12 sacks-Philly 3points) New England rolls in my opinion.
     
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    Posted: #21
    You will not see New England and the over hit IMHO.....
     
    Good night evryone ..time to catch some zzzzz's
     
    See you in a few days !!!
     
    Prospect
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    Posted: #22
    I lean more toward New England and the Under....Reasoning is I believe New England will get out to an early lead by a balanced attack early...Cincy cant stop them. Then i think once they build and 10 pt lead they will run the ball and eat up alot of clock to keep cincy off the field..
     
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    Posted: #23
    Great information Roberto.    Thank you. 
     
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    Posted: #24











    		38-23 34-20 40-20 31-24 34-27 41-24 31-28 41-31 35-31 42-28
    Chris
    Bahr     		Brian
    Baldinger     		Clifton
    Brown     		Greg
    Cosell     		Dennis
    Dillon     		Vinnie
    Iyer     		Carl
    Moritz     		Mike
    Nahrstedt     		Arnie
    Spanier     		War Room scouts
    All the experts say bet the over!  They were wrong last time . . .
     
     
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    Posted: #25

    • Cote: NE 41-31

    Pickings slim for GOTW committee -- Broncs-Colts? Pack-Vikes for Favre's record? -- but panel in a divisive vote settled on Monday-nighter for sheer likelihood of a bizarre scoring spectacle. Cincy's awful defense versus Perfect Tom Brady and that array of weapons? Picture me guarding Shaq in the paint. Thing is, bombardier Carson Palmer figures for huge numbers, too, especially with Rudi Johnson gimpy. High-scoring? Put it this way. Over/under number should have a comma. Pats won five of past six vs. 'Gals and stay mightily unbeaten here. By the way, I know it's early, but are '72 Dolphins paying attention yet?

     

    Another expert says go with the over.  I'd like to bet the under, but those are two high  powered offenses and NE seems to defy convention.

     

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