Posted:
#26
You rock bro but tonight I got the pats, I am sorry man the pats are just too fuckin good, I like the pats I can't go agianst them
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Trends & Things Monday Oct 1st 2007 NFL
Posted:
#28
robertofiory.... u are probably the greatest asset to this forum and made a lot of people money hands down
. but are you really confident with picking the bungals?? all trends aside, lets say we had no past trends to go by do you think they can even come close to even touching a +8 or what ever it's going to be? last week the saints we expected to come out all fired up and this and that and they showed us, as denny green would say, "they are who we thought they were" lol. i think the bungals will do the same tonight.
. but are you really confident with picking the bungals?? all trends aside, lets say we had no past trends to go by do you think they can even come close to even touching a +8 or what ever it's going to be? last week the saints we expected to come out all fired up and this and that and they showed us, as denny green would say, "they are who we thought they were" lol. i think the bungals will do the same tonight. once again i am not critising you at all just giving you my opinion and curious to what your response would be.
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Posted:
#29
MistaFlava's writeup from Cappers >>>>
If I hear he minds me sharing this with the board...By all means I will respect that in the future .....By I am giving proper credit ....
This Week: 3-1 ATS (+44.50 Units)
New England Patriots -7.5 (10 Units)
The New England Patriots are as good as it gets this year and it doesn't take a football genius to know it. They are 3-0 on the season and looking like the next stop on their schedule is the Super Bowl. Sure they have been accused of cheating and sure they have had to go through a bit of adversity but cheating or not cheating this is a damn good team that is also 3-0 ATS on the season and that has outyarded their opponents by 200+ yards in each and everyone of their games. You could argue that Cincinnati is the best team the Patriots will face up to this point in the season and although that might be true, the Pats beat the Jets, Chargers and Bills by an average of 26.3 points per game. So the marging of victory over mediocre opponents has been almost four touchdowns so are the Cincinnati Bengals a touchdown or two better than all three of those teams? I don't think so. The Patriots have been scoring machines since the year started and with WR Randy Moss now on this team, Tom Brady has his the first legit superstar wide receiver of his NFL football career. That makes all the difference in the world...believe me. The Patriots come into this game averaging 38.0 points per game this season and they have done it on 441.0 total yards of offense and 6.8 yards per play. Cincinnati's defense is hopeless like it has been in past seasons as they have allowed 31.7 points per game this season and 402.7 total yards of offense for 6.2 yards per play. WOW! They're in big trouble. On the ground, the Patriots are rushing for 151.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. As if Tom Brady whipping the ball around wasn't enough, the Pats have Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris who both have 30+ carries and both average more than 4.6 yards per carry. The Bengals are screwed here seeing how they allow 145.0 rushing yards per game on a whopping 5.4 yards per carry. OUCH OUCH OUCH! In the air, Brady has completed 79.5% of his passes this season for 10.1 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdowns and only 1 interception. I guess you could say that Cincinnati is once again in trouble here as they have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.0% of their passes this season for a whopping 7.0 yards per pass attempt. The Bengals don't have any pass rush to speak of which should give Brady tons of time to dunk and dink his way around the field. You also have to consider that Cincinnati's kickoff coverage has been brutal as they have allowed 28.8 yards per kickoff return while the Patriots have 36.4 yards per kickoff return. You don't have to worry about Brady and the Pats in this one, I can't see them being held to less than 30 points. NO CHANCE IN HELL! They are too powerful, too smart and just way too good for this Bengals team.
The Cincinnati Bengals don't look too good this year do they? They are 1-2 on the season coming into this game with their only big win coming on primetime tv against the Baltimore Ravens earlier this year but now that you saw the Ravens lose to Cleveland the way they did yesterday, do you even consider that a big win for the Bengals? I don't. They have now lost two straight games since that win over Baltimore and although both came on the road, I don't see why anyone thinks the Bengals are going to improve on their 38-13 home loss to these same Patriots in 2006? I mean they have been outyarded by almost 100 yards in two of their three games this season and have shown no signs of improving things on defense (the main concern of the last two or three seasons). They have allowed more than 20 points in all of their games this season and with RB Rudi Johnson out for tonight's game, we will see the Bengals turn into a one dimensional team in almost the exact same fashion as Philadelphia last night (although Corell Buckhalter was great in a losing cause). That leaves everything on the passing game and against the Patriots, one dimensional offenses don't usually make it out of the first half. The Bengals come into this game averaging 31.0 points per game and they have done that by averaging 393.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play. Not too bad but New England's defense has been outstanding and they have allowed only 11.7 points per game this season on 207.0 total yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Impressive to say the least. On the ground, the Bengals did average only 92.0 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry so losing Johnson is not the end of the world. However, the Patriots, who are already outstanding against the run allowing 74.0 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry, will now be able to focus on the pass rush and getting to QB Carson Palmer all night long. Palmer has completed only 64.0% of his passes this season for 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Palmer has had good protection most of the year but without a running threat (we all saw what happened to McNabb without Westbrook), the Patriots are most certainly going to come after him. The Pats already have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL with 10 sacks on the year in three games and I say they get at least 5 tonight. On top of that they have allowed opponents to complete only 4.9 yards per pass attempt this season and Palmer doesn't do too well when limited to short yardage passing. It's not to say that the Bengals won't score in this game but it's to say that the Patriots are to come after Palmer hard and it will affect the way this offense is run. I give this one to the Pats defense and the Rudi Johnson injury factor.
The New England Patriots are as good as it gets this year and it doesn't take a football genius to know it. They are 3-0 on the season and looking like the next stop on their schedule is the Super Bowl. Sure they have been accused of cheating and sure they have had to go through a bit of adversity but cheating or not cheating this is a damn good team that is also 3-0 ATS on the season and that has outyarded their opponents by 200+ yards in each and everyone of their games. You could argue that Cincinnati is the best team the Patriots will face up to this point in the season and although that might be true, the Pats beat the Jets, Chargers and Bills by an average of 26.3 points per game. So the marging of victory over mediocre opponents has been almost four touchdowns so are the Cincinnati Bengals a touchdown or two better than all three of those teams? I don't think so. The Patriots have been scoring machines since the year started and with WR Randy Moss now on this team, Tom Brady has his the first legit superstar wide receiver of his NFL football career. That makes all the difference in the world...believe me. The Patriots come into this game averaging 38.0 points per game this season and they have done it on 441.0 total yards of offense and 6.8 yards per play. Cincinnati's defense is hopeless like it has been in past seasons as they have allowed 31.7 points per game this season and 402.7 total yards of offense for 6.2 yards per play. WOW! They're in big trouble. On the ground, the Patriots are rushing for 151.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. As if Tom Brady whipping the ball around wasn't enough, the Pats have Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris who both have 30+ carries and both average more than 4.6 yards per carry. The Bengals are screwed here seeing how they allow 145.0 rushing yards per game on a whopping 5.4 yards per carry. OUCH OUCH OUCH! In the air, Brady has completed 79.5% of his passes this season for 10.1 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdowns and only 1 interception. I guess you could say that Cincinnati is once again in trouble here as they have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.0% of their passes this season for a whopping 7.0 yards per pass attempt. The Bengals don't have any pass rush to speak of which should give Brady tons of time to dunk and dink his way around the field. You also have to consider that Cincinnati's kickoff coverage has been brutal as they have allowed 28.8 yards per kickoff return while the Patriots have 36.4 yards per kickoff return. You don't have to worry about Brady and the Pats in this one, I can't see them being held to less than 30 points. NO CHANCE IN HELL! They are too powerful, too smart and just way too good for this Bengals team.
The Cincinnati Bengals don't look too good this year do they? They are 1-2 on the season coming into this game with their only big win coming on primetime tv against the Baltimore Ravens earlier this year but now that you saw the Ravens lose to Cleveland the way they did yesterday, do you even consider that a big win for the Bengals? I don't. They have now lost two straight games since that win over Baltimore and although both came on the road, I don't see why anyone thinks the Bengals are going to improve on their 38-13 home loss to these same Patriots in 2006? I mean they have been outyarded by almost 100 yards in two of their three games this season and have shown no signs of improving things on defense (the main concern of the last two or three seasons). They have allowed more than 20 points in all of their games this season and with RB Rudi Johnson out for tonight's game, we will see the Bengals turn into a one dimensional team in almost the exact same fashion as Philadelphia last night (although Corell Buckhalter was great in a losing cause). That leaves everything on the passing game and against the Patriots, one dimensional offenses don't usually make it out of the first half. The Bengals come into this game averaging 31.0 points per game and they have done that by averaging 393.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play. Not too bad but New England's defense has been outstanding and they have allowed only 11.7 points per game this season on 207.0 total yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Impressive to say the least. On the ground, the Bengals did average only 92.0 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry so losing Johnson is not the end of the world. However, the Patriots, who are already outstanding against the run allowing 74.0 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry, will now be able to focus on the pass rush and getting to QB Carson Palmer all night long. Palmer has completed only 64.0% of his passes this season for 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Palmer has had good protection most of the year but without a running threat (we all saw what happened to McNabb without Westbrook), the Patriots are most certainly going to come after him. The Pats already have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL with 10 sacks on the year in three games and I say they get at least 5 tonight. On top of that they have allowed opponents to complete only 4.9 yards per pass attempt this season and Palmer doesn't do too well when limited to short yardage passing. It's not to say that the Bengals won't score in this game but it's to say that the Patriots are to come after Palmer hard and it will affect the way this offense is run. I give this one to the Pats defense and the Rudi Johnson injury factor.
0
Posted:
#30
All of you who are backing the Bengals tonight hoping that they can erase their two losses...are making a BIG MISTAKE! How well did San Diego, Chicago and the Eagles do in that role yesterday huh guys? Not too well now did they? You didn't even need to read this writeup if I had told you that the last three times these two teams have met in the regular season, the Patriots have won those games by 7 points in 2004, by 10 points in 2005 and by 25 points in 2006. So now that the Patriots have their best team of those three seasons, you are telling me that they can't come into this game and win by 10+ points again? Cmon now. Like I mentioned earlier as well, the Patriots margin of victory this season in their three games is 26.3 points. So is Cincinnati that much better than the Bills, Jets and Chargers? Are they two full touchdowns better? No way. How about last night's game where we saw one team without their starting RB (Philadelphia) look exactly like one team without their starting RB tonight (Cincinnati)? Donovan McNabb was sacked like 11 times or something and the Patriots are well aware that coming after Carson Palmer hard is going to create all sorts of turnovers and chaos in the Cincinnati offense. Expect a bunch of New England sacks and dominant performance.
Trend of the Game: New England is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as the road favorite.
New England 33, Cincinnati 17
GL to all tonight!
Trend of the Game: New England is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as the road favorite.
New England 33, Cincinnati 17
GL to all tonight!
0
Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by DatBoyAbel:
robertofiory.... u are probably the greatest asset to this forum and made a lot of people money hands down. but are you really confident with picking the bungals?? all trends aside, lets say we had no past trends to go by do you think they can even come close to even touching a +8 or what ever it's going to be? last week the saints we expected to come out all fired up and this and that and they showed us, as denny green would say, "they are who we thought they were" lol. i think the bungals will do the same tonight.
. but are you really confident with picking the bungals?? all trends aside, lets say we had no past trends to go by do you think they can even come close to even touching a +8 or what ever it's going to be? last week the saints we expected to come out all fired up and this and that and they showed us, as denny green would say, "they are who we thought they were" lol. i think the bungals will do the same tonight. once again i am not critising you at all just giving you my opinion and curious to what your response would be.
The answer :
There is no way ....no how ......that I could possibly take the Cincinnati Bengals tonight .
It is clearly evident that the New England Patriots side is the only one to to take ...NO DOUBT .
BUT , If I want to make some $ in the NFL ...I have to go against my own intuition sometimes ...And I must play the percentages in situations that I know I can play over and over again over a long period of time ...I will be on the winning side ....There is sometimes ..a need not to cap and look athe obvious ..and go with the side that has proven to be sucessful ...
Yes, I know that New England has some awesome trends going with them ...
Yes ...I know that Cincinnati has some aweful trends going against them ..but that is not the angle that I consistently play ...teams come and go ...but these situations remain ..beyond them ...
If I were to waver just because I think I have a team that cannot lose , I will be cheating myself ....
Just as easily as everyone will be saying ...see I told you ...
YOU never go against Tom Brady ! What an Idiot ...How could you take Cincinnati Bengals ...???
They didn't even have Rudi Johnson!....New England has averaged 38 points ...a game
Cincinnati's defense sucks !!! .....New England is the best team in decades !!.... Blah, Blah , Blah
Well ....Then again .....We might hear .....I can't believe it ...I mean New England totally outplayed the Bengals for 4 quarters and they only win by 6 ???? what bullshit ...The NFL is fixed ....This is why I like College Football ...!....
Anyways ...This is The NFL ....
and I would normally bet more on the Bengals in this situation ....
But ....guess what ...I am giving the credit to the freaking New England Patriots ....the best team in the planet .......So that's how far my respect will go ....otherwise ..this is a 7 unit play for me .....
Best of luck
0
Posted:
#34
Hey everyone ...
I hope you all are doing alright ....
I took my loss in stride on Sunday and
I am moving right along with my Monday Night Football Play >>>
I am bumping my MNF pick by one unit ...
but this has everything to do with the addition of an O/U play ...( a rare Double play for me on MNF...) and nothing to do with chasing a single loss on Sunday .
I want to keep the ratio of this wagers on the side to o/u on this game to 2 to 1
I was sucessful with both of double plays that I had last year which helped my record to 15-2 on MNF plays ...
This year I stand at 2-1 with the 1 unit loss on Phil ...
During preseason I went 2-1 ( or 2-0-1) if you had Indi as a push ..which most people did ....
So, MNF during regular season for me going back to last year now stands @ 17-3
I explained my posted lines will never be lines that are not esily available ...
and I'd rather post a line noone can argue about
I do this to keep my record @ covers on the level ...
I have no problems with that....
so here are my plays >>>>
Game : Cincinnati @ New England
Cincinnati + 7.5 ( 4 units )
Under 53.5 ( 2 units )
That's going be a wrap for me this weekend ....
Best of luck on all your plays ....
Oh , and don't expect ..New England & the Over to hit ...
that's just not going to happen ... 
Enjoy the game ....................!
iam a little confused now? i thought you were taking the bungals??
0
Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
Well ....Then again .....We might hear .....I can't believe it ...I mean New England totally outplayed the Bengals for 4 quarters and they only win by 6 ???? what bullshit ...The NFL is fixed ....This is why I like College Football ...!....Anyways ...This is The NFL ....
Best of luck
Roberto.. First of all - Love to read your thread - You are one of the best cappers around here.
But I think College Footballs are Fixed games as well. Example;. How come all top 10 teams lost money lines last week?. Texas lost to KC. St. Gators lost to Auburn.
IMO- There are all Fixing games aroung sporting betting!.
Good luck to New England tonight!
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Posted:
#41
I think Roberto was being facetious. I believe and Roberto correct me if I am wrong that how can anyone think of going against the Pats? Because to make money, you need to go against logic and bet what you truly believe is the right spot and it's a nice one for Cinci. Not saying I am playing Cinci yet, just think I may be helping out the confusion.
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Posted:
#43
Hi guys.. I just hate to say but after researching this damn game for a day.. Seeing all you guys liking the NE and the over and 90% of the world taking it seems to be a little shocking considering if the nfl is someway set up that Cinci should cover and the under should hit making VEGAS a happy place....
What do you guys think.. bet with the pros or bet with vegas????????????????????
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