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Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL Week 4

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Posted: #1
Hey everyone ....
 
The Underdog Trend Pick of the Week comes through again as
Tennessee easily defeats an overmatched New Orleans team on monday night ...
The record since coming up with these picks at the start of preseason is a perfect 9-0 ATS
 
I guess that's our first trend for the week !
 
I am short on time ...so ...I won't be able to contribute anything meaningful to this thread until Friday ....
 
Let's update the battle between AFC & NFC teams as I have made this a regular feature on these weekly threads....
It is at very least important to be aware of which are the matchups
weekly , and consider the ATS record between these conferences these last 3 years ...
 
Let's recap >>>>
 
AFC vs NFC figures
 
AFC vs NFC ( 2004 - 2007 )  is 104-73 ATS ( 58.7 % )
 
AFC goes 32 - 24 - 2  ATS ( 57.1 % )  vs the NFC for the NFL year 2006-2007 regular season....
 
This year we have >>>
week 1 : AFC  2 - 1 - 1 ATS
week 2 : AFC  2 - 2  ATS
week 3 : AFC 3 - 2 -1 ATS
 
through 3 weeks >>> AFC is 7-5-1 ATS vs NFC
through 3 weeks >>>   AFC is 8-6 SU vs NFC
 
Up next >>>
week 4 
 
Houston @ Atlanta
Pittsburgh @ Arizona
 
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Secondly let me update the record for  Favs vs Dogs & Overs/ Unders for the year ...
 
In week 3 ( again ...going with covers lines )
 
Underdogs went 9-5-2 ATS
Overs went 11-5
 
The Dog - Over combo hit 6 times
The Fav - Over combo hit 4 times
The Fav - Under combo hit 1 time
The Dog - Under combo hit 3 times
Push - Over combo hit 1 time
Push - Under combo hit 1 time
 
Update through 3 weeks of play in the 2007-2008 season
 
Week 1 :  Overs 5-11
Week 2 : Overs  8-8
Week 3 : Overs 11-5
 
Overs 24
Unders 24
 
Week 1: Favs  9 - 6 - 1
Week 2 : Favs 3 - 12 - 1
Week 3 : Favs 5 - 9 - 2
 
Favs 17 
Dogs 27
Push 4
 
As many home Dogs as there may be this Sunday ...we are above the long term medium in terms of Dogs covering , and I don't expect anything like week 2 in terms of Dogs covering ....
If anything , the slight edge goes to the Favorites  ...
 
Needless to say , these numbers may be off , depending on your lines ....
 
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Posted: #2
I actually think we'll see a number of home dogs win or cover this weekend.
Anyway, the trend I'd like to see is how home dogs have faird over the last 3-5 years on Monday night. I'm going to see if I can find that one and I'll post it when I do.
I also wonder what Favre's career record ATS is in domes. I don't think it's very good. Especially in Minnesota
 
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Favre is 13-23 ATS in domes
 
 Not as bad as I thought but still not super impressive. GB seems like the "easy/public play" at practically a PK. Packers run game is non-existant as is so expect them to do nothing on the ground. GB will have some success throwing the ball but I don't think they can win this game being one dimensional. Holcomb might actually be the better QB over Jackson. Expect a healthy dose of Adrian Peterson. Not sure what the total is here but might lean under
 
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Posted: #4
Qualifying teams for the Underdog Trend Pick of the Week >>
 
 
Tampa Bay
Denver                                                                            Kansas City
 
***************************************************************
 
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Posted: #5
I featured the contrarian play last week >>
This angle is essentially  " Fade the Public"  theory >>>
 
  • Contrarian Betting - back the teams that are not getting bet in the thinking that the linemakers are smart and either laying a trap for the public, happy to take a stand on the game, as they wouldn't willingly accept exposure on a matchup if they didn't feel they had the "right side."

    • according to two minute warning ...based on 2005 year numbers only ...(not much statistical data to draw from ..) and a year of the favorite ...taking a side that draws less than 20 % of the action will be profitable .

    As for what day of the week has the most meaningful numbers, they don't have any hard research.

    However last season the teams with less than 20% of the bets on Tuesday fared very well against the spread.

    On Week 4 , based on Tuesday's percentages the team with the highest percentage of backing is :

    Houston ( the play would be on Atlanta )

    next in line were GB ( play on Minnesota )

     and Pitssburgh ( play on Arizona )

    on Wed ..the precentages are the following :

    This time going with the teams to back under such theory

    with the lowest percentages >>

    Atlanta 9 %

    Arizona & St Louis 13 %

    Minnesota 16 %

    Cincinnati 17 %

    Denver 21 %

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    Captain
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    Posted: #6
    Brett Favre is 14-30 ATS (19-25 SU ) in domes.

    Favre lost nine of his first 11 starts at the Metrodome, but has since won three of four games there while throwing for 1,221 yards with 10 TDs and two interceptions. He threw for 347 yards and two scores in last year's 23-17 win at Minnesota.

    "Historically it hasn't been the best place for him and for us to go up and play," Packers offensive tackle Mark Tauscher told the team's official Web site. "But we've had a lot of success up there recently, and it's going to be a big division game.


     
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    2004-2007 >>>
     
    Home Underdogs on Monday night have gone
    8-6-0 ATS & 7-7 SU
     
    Home Underdogs ( >= 7 ) on Monday night have gone 2-0 ATS & 1-1 SU
     
    2002-2007 >>>
     
    Home Underdogs on Monday night have gone 12-12 ATS & 11-13 SU
     
    Home Underdogs (>=7 ) on Monday night have gone
    3-0 ATS & 2-1 SU
     
     
     
     
    Captain
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    Posted: #8
    more on friday .....
     
    Veteran
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    Posted: #9
    That was a very quick count on my part and I'm still up so a little tired. Thanks for the info Roberto. Appreciate the hard work
     
    All-Star
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    Posted: #10
    Liking ATL and MINN this weekend
     
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    Posted: #11
    pick a home-doggie, any home-doggie. you probably won't go wrong.
     
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    Posted: #12
    Great stuff.
    This seems like the perfect setup for Green Bay to lose but can you really back Kelly Holcomb ?  Tavaris Jackson is hard enough.
     
    I'll check in here later
     
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    Posted: #13
    9 out of 14 games are home dogs, thats crazy!!!
     
    This year hd are 8-4 ats
     
     
    Last year week 1    8 of 16 games were hd and went 3-5ats
    after 4 weeks last year  home dogs were     13-11 ats
     
     
     
     
     
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    Posted: #14
    Roberto....!!!!   a little help here man...

    you post some of best trends and system here at covers.. I found these at another forum and look overwhelmingly good IF they are accurate...  Based on the system I noticed the giants fall into both systems.....

    Play on a home dog of 3 or less points, off a SU away dog win versus an opponent off a SU win. System is 18-4 ATS.

    Giants would be the play

    This system is to play on all home dogs off a SU away win, versus an opponent off a SU home win. These ferocious home dogs are 57-18 ATS in the past 10 years. This simple little system cranks out winners at a rate of 76%.

    Giants would be the play

    What do you think bro?
     
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    Posted: #15
    Wizeguys,
     
    System looks good
    GIANTS 7-0 ATS as home dogs off dog win vs. opponent off win (compliments Mark Lawrence's Black Book)
     
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    WEEK 4 :Green Bay Packers (3-0, both SU and ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2, 1-1-1)
    The Vikings are underdogs at home against Green Bay for the first time since the 2002 season and they are desperate for a win to avoid failing three games off the pace in the division chase.
    Green Bay will likely be the people's choice, but Minnesota has several factors in its favor.
    The Vikings have cashed nine of their last dozen against the Packers and the underdog in this storied rivalry is 16-1 in the last 17 encounters.Minnesota has 'covered' 20 of 28 as home pups and 14 of 17 as short-enders at the Metrodome with revenge.
    Green Bay took both games versus the Vikings last season, prevailing as 5 1/2-point road dogs, 23-17, and as 3 1/2-point home favorites, 9-7. Minnesota has also cashed nine off 11 when playing its second game at home, including its last four as underdogs. In addition, the Vikings are 6-0 against the spread coming off back-to-back straight-up losses versus an opponent that's over .500.
    The definition of a Sandwich Game. The Packers just upset the Chargers and are all talking about how they never expected a 3-0 start.
    Meanwhile, they play Chicago in Week 5, in a contest that could determine the winner of the NFC North.

    History: Packers have won the last 2 meetings.
    Brett Favre is 14-30 ATS (19-25 straight up) in domes.
    The underdog is 14-2
     
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    Posted: #17
    Roberto: Could you please tell me the bet %'s for the Houst @ Atlan game? 
     
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    Last 2 times SD gave up 30 pts or more in back to back games they won the next game by exactly 7.  Both games went under I believe.  This occurred last in 2005. 
     
    Prospect
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    Posted: #19
    roberto is the man!!!!!!!!!!!
     
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    Posted: #20
    KC + WHATEVER over 10 baby !!!!!! Herm may not be a great coach,but he covers this week !!!!
     
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rookie_Bookie:

    Roberto: Could you please tell me the bet %'s for the Houst @ Atlan game? 

     

    You could find that here in covers. NFL scores and matchups... on the right side of the teams, there will be percentage.

     
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    whats up ROBERTO ? any leans for your 5 for the hilton yet ?  GL
     
     
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