Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL Week 4

Hey everyone ....

 

The Underdog Trend Pick of the Week comes through again as

Tennessee easily defeats an overmatched New Orleans team on monday night ...

The record since coming up with these picks at the start of preseason is a perfect 9-0 ATS

 

I guess that's our first trend for the week !

 

I am short on time ...so ...I won't be able to contribute anything meaningful to this thread until Friday ....

 

Let's update the battle between AFC & NFC teams as I have made this a regular feature on these weekly threads....

It is at very least important to be aware of which are the matchups

weekly , and consider the ATS record between these conferences these last 3 years ...

 

Let's recap >>>>

 

 

 

 

I actually think we'll see a number of home dogs win or cover this weekend.

Anyway, the trend I'd like to see is how home dogs have faird over the last 3-5 years on Monday night. I'm going to see if I can find that one and I'll post it when I do.

I also wonder what Favre's career record ATS is in domes. I don't think it's very good. Especially in Minnesota

 

 Not as bad as I thought but still not super impressive. GB seems like the "easy/public play" at practically a PK. Packers run game is non-existant as is so expect them to do nothing on the ground. GB will have some success throwing the ball but I don't think they can win this game being one dimensional. Holcomb might actually be the better QB over Jackson. Expect a healthy dose of Adrian Peterson. Not sure what the total is here but might lean under

Qualifying teams for the Underdog Trend Pick of the Week >>

 

 

Tampa Bay
Denver                                                                            Kansas City

 

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I featured the contrarian play last week >>

according to two minute warning ...based on 2005 year numbers only ...(not much statistical data to draw from ..) and a year of the favorite ...taking a side that draws less than 20 % of the action will be profitable .

As for what day of the week has the most meaningful numbers, they don't have any hard research.

However last season the teams with less than 20% of the bets on Tuesday fared very well against the spread.

On Week 4 , based on Tuesday's percentages the team with the highest percentage of backing is :

Houston ( the play would be on Atlanta )

next in line were GB ( play on Minnesota )

 and Pitssburgh ( play on Arizona )

on Wed ..the precentages are the following :

This time going with the teams to back under such theory

with the lowest percentages >>

Atlanta 9 %

Arizona & St Louis 13 %

Minnesota 16 %

Cincinnati 17 %

Denver 21 %

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That was a very quick count on my part and I'm still up so a little tired. Thanks for the info Roberto. Appreciate the hard work

Liking ATL and MINN this weekend

Great stuff.

This seems like the perfect setup for Green Bay to lose but can you really back Kelly Holcomb ?  Tavaris Jackson is hard enough.

 

I'll check in here later

9 out of 14 games are home dogs, thats crazy!!!

 

This year hd are 8-4 ats

 

 

Last year week 1    8 of 16 games were hd and went 3-5ats

after 4 weeks last year  home dogs were     13-11 ats

 

 

 

 

Wizeguys,

 

System looks good

GIANTS 7-0 ATS as home dogs off dog win vs. opponent off win (compliments Mark Lawrence's Black Book)

WEEK 4 :Green Bay Packers (3-0, both SU and ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2, 1-1-1)
The Vikings are underdogs at home against Green Bay for the first time since the 2002 season and they are desperate for a win to avoid failing three games off the pace in the division chase.
Green Bay will likely be the people's choice, but Minnesota has several factors in its favor.
The Vikings have cashed nine of their last dozen against the Packers and the underdog in this storied rivalry is 16-1 in the last 17 encounters.Minnesota has 'covered' 20 of 28 as home pups and 14 of 17 as short-enders at the Metrodome with revenge.
Green Bay took both games versus the Vikings last season, prevailing as 5 1/2-point road dogs, 23-17, and as 3 1/2-point home favorites, 9-7. Minnesota has also cashed nine off 11 when playing its second game at home, including its last four as underdogs. In addition, the Vikings are 6-0 against the spread coming off back-to-back straight-up losses versus an opponent that's over .500.
The definition of a Sandwich Game. The Packers just upset the Chargers and are all talking about how they never expected a 3-0 start.
Meanwhile, they play Chicago in Week 5, in a contest that could determine the winner of the NFC North.

History: Packers have won the last 2 meetings.
Brett Favre is 14-30 ATS (19-25 straight up) in domes.
The underdog is 14-2

Roberto: Could you please tell me the bet %'s for the Houst @ Atlan game? 

Last 2 times SD gave up 30 pts or more in back to back games they won the next game by exactly 7.  Both games went under I believe.  This occurred last in 2005. 

roberto is the man!!!!!!!!!!!

KC + WHATEVER over 10 baby !!!!!! Herm may not be a great coach,but he covers this week !!!!

whats up ROBERTO ? any leans for your 5 for the hilton yet ?  GL