Posted:
#1
hello
this is my first try of a system. soo simple that i'm sure someone is using already.
for me good system is the one that will get e to a certain goal during a season. in my case it's to win 20u (humble start) and not to lose my bank in the process.
ah... the 4/4 thing...
bet the home team that has more than 4 wins in their last 10 games overall against the team that has less then 4 wins in their last 10 games overall
HL10>4 and VTL10<4
only other modifier is that home team isn't in a bad streak. L4 or L5 in a row
these are the numbers i got from backtesting. i always start with the month of may
columns are:
season /end profit / w-l / w perc. /max. profit/ min. profit/ date of achieving 20u/ date of busting (-20u)/ longest w streak/ longest l streak
2000 -3,94 189-134 58,51% 3,92 -13,22 0 0 9 6
2001 28,70 189-112 62,79% 30,76 -12,62 909 0 12 7
2002 -33,65 151-121 55,51% 7,30 -44,20 0 614 10 7
2003 -2,87 167-110 60,29% 3,13 -25,57 0 524 12 6
2004 26,59 172-93 64,91% 31,67 -3,92 707 0 15 4
2005 3,40 144-96 60,00% 20,18 0,00 605 0 11 10
2006 15,37 171-106 61,73% 27,74 -6,41 921 0 10 7
2007 19,08 147-91 61,76% 21,34 -8,45 901 0 12 5
2008 31,42 163-91 64,17% 32,92 -2,35 914 0 17 5
2009 4,50 9-3 75,00% 4,50 -0,05 0 0 3 1
with friday games i think it's 11-3 for 2009 with +6.5u. haven't done proper math for that yet
as you can see 2000-2003 wasn't that good. rubbish except 2001.
but since 2004 things are looking much better 
good enough not to seriously dent the bank and to reach a goal of 20u safely enough.
there could be nice long streaks with this one and some kind of mild progression could be used to get some more value
i tested it as a chase system for series (that's how i got to this 4/4 actually) but most of these games are heavily chalked and 1 loss could cost you dearly. example: sea 2005 last series before all-star break... would be a 70u wipeout
i'd appreciate if someone could backtest this results, just to be sure.
i will be 'fooling around' with some advanced statistics for a better system and must be sure that what i've done here computes well
i won't be posting picks for this one. maybe i'll update how it's progressing if there are interested parties
hope i'll get my 20u
gla
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