killing the books...here is the mother of all traps (sucker goy)

Question

i already hear people capping this game the old fashioned sucker way...wake beat fsu, fsu rolled duke, duke has no chance. loving it ! some people are just too lazy to look deeper before placing a wager or before posting a play here. but thats why vegas is so beautifull.

wake won against fsu by 5...thats great...but they won the turnover battle 5-0 in that game, and when you win your turnover battle 5-0, you should win by at least double digits, especially at home. so that win is a bad win in my book.

last week wake jumped ahead 10-0 against vtech but then they were outscored 38-7 the rest of the way. and that tells me one thing. after a road win at bc, and a home upset win against fsu, they had enough in the tank for one quarter, and then they run out of gas. they are done. the last thing they need here is to go on the road for two games.

last season duke scored 48 at wake, as renfree passed for 358 yards and their rushing offense produced 5.5 yards per carry. last 5 hth were relatively or extremely close.

finally, if you are betting on wake on the road, then you definately deserve to lose. they are 4-12 ATS in last 16 on the road. if you are betting on wake forrest after facing vtech, fsu and b.c and before their three game stretch that features games at north carolina, vs notre dame and at clemson, then you deserve to lose. if you are betting on wake forrest with josh harris questionnable and definately not 100% if he plays, then you deserve to lose.

people are already calling wake the gift from vegas. and we all know what usually happens with those <gift bets>. just ask those who were on georgia tech in ncaa and new orleans in nfl this past weekend.

my goy is DUKE +3

more plays later this week !

4thdown · Answer

i already hear people capping this game the old fashioned sucker way...wake beat fsu, fsu rolled duke, duke has no chance. loving it ! some people are just too lazy to look deeper before placing a wager or before posting a play here. but thats why vegas is so beautifull.

wake won against fsu by 5...thats great...but they won the turnover battle 5-0 in that game, and when you win your turnover battle 5-0, you should win by at least double digits, especially at home. so that win is a bad win in my book.

last week wake jumped ahead 10-0 against vtech but then they were outscored 38-7 the rest of the way. and that tells me one thing. after a road win at bc, and a home upset win against fsu, they had enough in the tank for one quarter, and then they run out of gas. they are done. the last thing they need here is to go on the road for two games.

last season duke scored 48 at wake, as renfree passed for 358 yards and their rushing offense produced 5.5 yards per carry. last 5 hth were relatively or extremely close.

finally, if you are betting on wake on the road, then you definately deserve to lose. they are 4-12 ATS in last 16 on the road. if you are betting on wake forrest after facing vtech, fsu and b.c and before their three game stretch that features games at north carolina, vs notre dame and at clemson, then you deserve to lose. if you are betting on wake forrest with josh harris questionnable and definately not 100% if he plays, then you deserve to lose.

people are already calling wake the gift from vegas. and we all know what usually happens with those <gift bets>. just ask those who were on georgia tech in ncaa and new orleans in nfl this past weekend.

my goy is DUKE +3

more plays later this week !

MaineRoad · Answer

Agreed.

fadepublic14 · Answer

Couldn&#x27;t have said it better myself.  High-powered teams (Stanford/Florida State) aside, Duke has been a quiet gold mine ATS.

Laroja · Answer

Your goy? Care to post a ticket? I&#x27;m fine with fading WF, and yes they are pretty awful on the road, but not sure how people can post these threads and make their GOY on--- lets face it----- an pretty bad Duke team.

mws · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by 4thdown] &#xD;&#xA;i already hear people capping this game the old fashioned sucker way...wake beat fsu, fsu rolled duke, duke has no chance. [/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;That kind of analysis is ridiculous, true.  In fact, the Wake/FSU and FSU/Duke results are actually a strong argument in support of a bet on DUKE.  Wake could easily overlook Duke using the same kind of reasoning that some bettors are using.&#xD;&#xA;[Quote] last season duke scored 48 at wake, as renfree passed for 358 yards and their rushing offense produced 5.5 yards per carry. last 5 hth were relatively or extremely close. [/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;Wake&#x27;s defense is vastly improved.  You can basically disregard that score.&#xD;&#xA;[Quote] finally, if you are betting on wake on the road, then you definately deserve to lose. they are 4-12 ATS in last 16 on the road.&#x2B;&#x2B;  [/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;That&#x27;s a bad stat.  Means nothing.  Wake is 1-1 ATS on the road this year, and the loss was by half a point.  And too many of those 16  games came last year when Wake was vastly worse than expected and went 1-5 ATS on the road.  Wake is exceeding expectations this year, and power ratings say this line should be around Wake -8.&#xD;&#xA;Moreover, the trip to Duke isn&#x27;t really a road trip in any relevant respect.  Short trip, no significant crowd noise, etc.  During that 4-12 ATS road string, Wake is 1-0 ATS in Durham.  &#xD;&#xA;[Quote] if you are betting on wake forrest after facing vtech, fsu and b.c and before their three game stretch that features games at north carolina, vs notre dame and at clemson, then you deserve to lose[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;The scheduling spot is a good point.&#xD;&#xA;So, two good points and two mistaken inferences.

tep · Answer

Why not wait for a better line if you think people will be all over WF? Line is already going in your favor and I do not think any "smart" would touch this game so it could go past 3. Some books are already at 3 -115.

4thdown · Answer

staying in the acc...&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;the public is all over clemson again. but after playing unimpressive football against maryland and b.c. and stil covering both spreads, clemson is going against a much better team than those two, and the public stil believes that they will cover the spread. i think that they will be lucky to win, let alone cover the spread. &#xD;&#xA;north carolina &#x2B;10.5

4thdown · Answer

6-1 team favored by 3 at a 2-4 team. no surprise there, the public loves la lafayette. the problem is, wky players finally believe in themselves, and since they won big at la laf last season, they know they can beat them again.

western kentucky +3

4thdown · Answer

biggest favorite in all 5 mid week games naturally draws squares from all over the country. central florida is not good enough to win by that much on the road. uab is a covering machine now and they are getting close to their first win. trailed tulsa by only 4 on the road, led mississippi state at the half, led troy by 9 after three qtrs and lost by 1, went toe-to-toe at ecu and lost by 5. thats a big upgrade from back-to-back 39 pts losses in weeks 1 and 2. maybe this is the day....central florida is more talented but going in opposite direction. stil the public loves them.

uab +15.5

allboutmoney · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by 4thdown] &#xD;&#xA;staying in the acc...&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;the public is all over clemson again. but after playing unimpressive football against maryland and b.c. and stil covering both spreads, clemson is going against a much better team than those two, and the public stil believes that they will cover the spread. i think that they will be lucky to win, let alone cover the spread. &#xD;&#xA;north carolina &#x2B;10.5&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]

rotsoruck · Answer

this thread is exactly why i like coming to this site. Great stuff. Duke, UAB, and WKY are now on my list of games to look at this weekend. THANKS

BigUnit · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;3-3 ats

pasta · Answer

Love your dog picks.&#xD;&#xA;GL

2112 · Answer

At least they are ballsy picks...GL

4thdown · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by 4thdown] &#xD;&#xA;biggest favorite in all 5 mid week games naturally draws squares from all over the country. central florida is not good enough to win by that much on the road. uab is a covering machine now and they are getting close to their first win. trailed tulsa by only 4 on the road, led mississippi state at the half, led troy by 9 after three qtrs and lost by 1, went toe-to-toe at ecu and lost by 5. thats a big upgrade from back-to-back 39 pts losses in weeks 1 and 2. maybe this is the day....central florida is more talented but going in opposite direction. stil the public loves them.&#xD;&#xA;uab &#x2B;15.5&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;yeah baby, this was the day....another covers bloodbath

4thdown · Answer

here is another one...&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;only ranked team in all mid week games... so not surprising to de everyone and their mother on wva laying an insanely big number on the road. the same wva team that played its last roadie more than a month ago and almost lost that game despite leading 34-10 in the third quarter.their running game was inexistent in that roadie, and maryland run all over wva defense. take syracuse &#x2B;14, dont be a sucker !

JackSmack · Answer

I dont think UNC has the firepower, gl with it. You gotta have a team that can match Clemson, or just watkins. Wow talk about a super freshamn, kids got more talent then the entire browns wr corps

capdatazz · Answer

I like all of your picks. Was looking for an angle as to why ULL might not cover so I could get off them.

Can't bet on Duke because they're duke, but wouldn't be surprised if they did win the game.

vinmoney · Answer

GOY on Duke???  That is the most absurd thing I have heard in a while..  Win or lose...&#xD;&#xA;You can find more value on at least 2-3 games every week then this brother..

POTUS · Answer

4th - I agree wholeheartedly with your take on Western Kentucky. After looking at both teams seasons thus far, there is absolutely no reason why ULL shouldn't be heavy favorite in this one. The short line seems to be begging ULL money, which usually is a great sign to take opposite.

This is very similar to last night's game. There was no reason for Arizona to be -3. If anything, UCLA should have been small favorite. Which of course was a true tell sign that books knew Arizona was going to have a great game.

I like your style of looking at games. Are there any others this week similar to this, where the books are in your opinion are begging for money on one side. I think the ideal spot (like last night) would have the wrong team favored by a substantial amount.

BOL

TRAIN69 · Answer

Good stuff bro.

RetainLane · Answer

I like your capping style.  BOL this week.

Lucrative · Answer

Love your plays. Duke will be one of my biggest plays this week.

TRAIN69 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by vinmoney]  GOY on Duke???  That is the most absurd thing I have heard in a while..  Win or lose...&#xD;&#xA;You can find more value on at least 2-3 games every week then this brother..  [/Quote]What are they? I&#x27;ll be waiting.

killing the books...here is the mother of all traps (sucker goy)

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