PLAY: Eagles @ Seahawks breakdown & Play

Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks

This game poses questions whose answers might produce cashed tickets, or saved money in not betting this match up at all.  Most NFL bettors cannot stand fast on the NFL’s only game on Thursday nights… so let’s give it a whirl, shall we?

Seahawks passing game:  the Seahawks are banged up something terrible; T Jax is nursing a torn Pectoral muscle, Sidney rice suffered his second concussion in 3 weeks, Doug Balwin left last weeks game with a ‘banged up’ shoulder.  Just 3 weeks ago the Hawks lost 2 offensive linemen for the season; both with knee injuries, and one of which is probably their best run and most powerful run blocker.  The seahawks have given up 3^rd most Sacks in the NFL this season, and I just don’t see how the trend won’t continue on for Thursday’s match up.   Even under ideal circumstances (minus the injuries), we are still talking about Tavaris Jackson whose 72.8 season passer rating with 9 TD’s and 12 INTs has barely managed to keep the Seahawks passing attack from the very bottom of the NFL this season (ranked 25^th).  The Eagles should be ‘teeing off’ on Jackson all night long.  Unfortunately for T Jax, Cullen Jenkins is perfectly healthy and hungry.  Jenkins Hits, Hurries, or Sacks opposing QB’s 1.1 + times per pass rush.

Seahawks Rushing game:  Balwin should play for Seattle, but he is banged up.  T Jax will have little time to run check downs beyond 1 or 2 (not that he was ever good in check downs with all the time in the world to do so), and the passing game will be nearly non-exsistent.  The running attack is going to be Pete Carrolls only hope…. Slim as that is.  Carroll is going to have to try hitting Lynch out on the right flat to spread/slow the Eagles left side pass run, and hope that will loosen up the Eagles left side… if that doesn’t work (which I just can’t see working) T Jax is going to have to attempt some ill advised passes, which  will probably end up bad a lot more that good.  As a whole, the Eagles are not a great run stopping team, but when they have an inferior side of the O line, it make Andy Reid’s game plan a lot easier to devise and execute.  What Seattle does not want is to rely on T Jax to win the game on his arm, but that is what is probably going to happen.  Going against T Jax after facing Tom Brady and Eli Manning in the last couple weeks Philly’s defensive secondary should have no problem getting in the Christmas spirit—this will seem like early present opening time. 

Eagles Passing game:  Vince Young is a head case—that is not news to anyone.  He is super talented and can surgically dismantle a great NFL defense, or he can get beaten by a horrible D…. Jekyl and Hyde, you just never know.  DeSean Jackson continues to be a distraction—will he put up a stellar performance just to stay in the contract talks this week?  No question Reid is getting tired of Jackson’s demeanor (benching him ect).  The Eagles could—probably will be able to compile 300 + yards tonight, but I don’t imagine much more.  

Eagles running game:  McCoy has an injured toe, but had ran regular practice on Wednesday (unsubstantiated, but I believe it), and expects to play on Thursday.  He was used just 10 times for a 3.1 ypc average vs the Pats.  Why did Reid run McCoy only 10 of 65 plays in a game that they would be better served controlling time of possession and keeping Brady off the field?  I can only assume that McCoy’s injury is more severe than they are telling us, or Reid felt that Young could ‘Air it out’ better than Brady given NE’s defensive woes…..ummmm….. no, McCoy is hurting.  Ronnie Brown is Philly’s back up to McCoy…yes, the same Ronnie Brown that was traded to Detroit for 1 day and returned…the Same Ronnie brown that fumbled on the 4 yrd line of San Fran when Philly was about to go up 17-3 to put the game in-hand in the first half.  Truth is, Brown is motivated, and is a pretty good option considering he has to know that a bad performance (if called upon) could plummet his value, and a good one could reinvigorate the 29 year old’s career.  Philly can run the ball with fair success if they balance the attack.  Seahawks run D is not too shabby, and better than their pass D, but if Ried tries to pass 74% of the time again this week…it could work into Seattle’s favor quickly.  Seattle’s Chris Clemons is somewhat of a secret weapon; he has 8 sacks and 20 solo tackles this season, but is far and away the most aggressive pass rusher (hits, hurries, or sacks the opposing QB’s about 10.9% of all passing attempts) and will give Young issues if the Eagles become predictable.

Eagles passing game/Vince Young (cont):  The Eagles O line did a great job of protecting the back up QB last weekend vs the Pats.  I know, I know…we all have heard how bad the NE defensive squad is, but they are tied for 14^th in the NFL in Sacks—middle of the road, and they swallowed their fair share of QB’s attempting to pass.  The Pat’s got to Vince Young just once, and pressured him only 6 times on 48 pass attempts; not too shabby at all.  Vince competed 26 of 48 passes for 1 TD and 1 INT.  Against the Pat’s, Young took first possession of the game by turning up the flames hitting 2 of 3 passes for 80 yds to get them inside the Pat’s 4 yd line and plunged McCoy 2 times into the endzone.  The problem for Philly was passing 9 of their first 12 plays in the first quarter (outside of the NE 5 yd line), and 1 of those plays was a Vince Y. run play.  They went toe to toe with Brady in a passing challenge; bad game plan.  Young played well and lost.  I make this long, and drawn out point for one reason:  Vince Young classically plays great when people doubt he can play, and falls apart when he is expected to perform great.  Right now Philly fans just want someone’s head (or a few of them).  It is hard to expect that Young will not perform well tonight. 

 Intangibles: Seattle is an undisciplined team, and that is evident in the fact that they are rivaling even the Oakland Raiders in penalties.  The Penalty issues are just now becoming a focus for Pete Carroll—can you blame him?  USC had massive penalties every year but Carroll kept winning b/c of the lack of parity in the PAC… welcome to the NFL Pete!  Seattle has one of the strongest home field advantages due to geographics (long trip to), and the 12^th man.  Both teams’ playoff chances are pretty bad, but the Eagles might be feeling a bit more enthusiastic than the Hawks, all things considered. 

Sharps/Squares:  Squares are all over the Eagles tonight (about 66% of them), and yet the line opened @ Seattle +2 and yet only moved 1 pt since 7:30 pm on the 27^th.  No indication of strong Sharp play, but the slow moving line may be indication of some Sharp plays.

Summary:  Eagles ‘aired it out’ last week, and got slammed.  They are facing a less dangerous offense this week, and each drive will be less crucial if missed.  Seattle’s penalty prone squad will help the Eagles quite a bit.  Eagles run game is not looking the best, but they can average out 3.5 per if they balance the attack.  Eagles will most likely play a little more loose due to getting away from the rabid crowd/press in Philly.  Seattle won’t be able to score much, and Philly’s D should look top notch tonight vs this level of talent (injuries considered).  The line almost looks like a trap, though I just cannot imagine a Seattle upset…but the Eagles win by 2, or 1?  It’s Hard to imagine.  Though I cannot see any value to the Eagles primary goal by running up the score so  I have to lean under.  The Smart play is NO PLAY in this game (bettor edges on today’s board), but as stated…. NFL Bettors cannot pull back off of Thursday’s only game…… I would lay this result @

Eagles 31-Seattle 13 

My official play:      first half  Under 21.5 

30-21  (58.8%)GRAY HIGHLIGHTED PLAYS ARE NOT COUNTED AS THEY ARE HEDGES THAT I HOPED TO LOSE AND SIMPLY TO PROTECT MY LARGER PLAY ON A GAME)  all postings using MGM GRAND lines and subject line reads PLAY at it’s beginning.