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Forum: MLB Betting
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Today
TheBuddah PM TheBuddah
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 1628
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Posted: 10/9/2012 10:17:35 AM

We did it  - 5- 1.    Today's games line up like this:

      SF   vogel 23

140 Cincy   Baily 36

Cincy opened up as a 140 fav.   Looking at the numbers vogel is better on paper.  According to my data - this could go either way, so i'm avoiding the side.   However, I think the over may be a good play here - both pitchers seem to struggle during the day and one more important note - when pitchers come off of no decisions - they often give up a lot of runs - both are coming off of nd's.  I'm taking the over.

        Detroit    22

135 Oak         20

The data shows with a line of 135 and with these numerical ratings, Detroit should take this game - i'm going with detroit.

Good luck all.  TB


3- 1 so far - let's make it 5-1 - today:

        Wash Zimmer       22

115 Stlouis         Garcia  78

Stl opens up at 115 - what I consider a small fav.   The 22 represents a numerical rating I assign a pitcher based on power rank, mob and strikeouts (lower the better).  Garcia has a 78.   On paper zimmer would be the choice, however, the oddsmakers have put a line on the game of 115 for stlouis.  I go to my data base and I look up similar situations - history has shown - in these situations - the home team usually wins and sometimes by more than one run - i'm going with stlouis on the m/l and a parlay with baltimore. 

130 Ny petti               34

         Balt.  chen        29

History has shown when the away team is a 130 favorite - what I consider a mf - with these numerical ratings - the home team usually wins - thus i'm on baltimore. 

Good luck all.




Looking at my data - bumgartner is clearly the better pitcher - the numbers stack up like this:

Cincy   39

140 Sf   10

On paper, sf is the clear choice, however, based on a 140 line and historical numerical ratings - i'm going with cincy.

Good luck all.

 Out of all 4 games - Det is the best pick. 

The numbers look like this:

         Oak       31

155   Det        50

On paper oak has the better pitcher but you have to  consider the opening number 155 - det.  Based on my data with a line of 155 and the numerical rankings for the pitchers - history has shown det wins this. We hit with Baltimore on Friday - more later - good luck all. More on why - see below.


I use the opening line and a numerical rating (based on power rankings, men on base and strikeouts) for each starting pitcher and then go back and find out what history has shown for similar situations (lower the better):

      Stl    Lohse 10

165 Atl  Medln  0    

History has shown with an opening line of 165 where you have a pitcher with a 0 and a 10....the 0 pitcher wins by a couple of runs - thus Atl. on the runline.

       Balt   Saunders    34

190 Tex   Darvish      13

My data shows - when the line is big or a huge favorite (like 190) - and the away team has a rank in the 30's and the home team has a rank in the low teens - the away team wins.

So I see Atl on the run line and Balt su.  good luck all.


halofan PM halofan
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2952
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Posted: 10/9/2012 11:22:07 AM
ShadowWarrior PM ShadowWarrior
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 7099
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Posted: 10/9/2012 1:36:43 PM
Great work Buddah!  
avignonfr PM avignonfr
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 1661
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Posted: 10/9/2012 3:26:57 PM
is the over in the reds/giants game a system play of yours? or a feel?

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