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What are the odds......

Forum: NBA Betting Page 2 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: What are the odds......
kvs23 PM kvs23
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 385
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Posted: 5/10/2012 11:11:13 AM
Come on GUYS...

* If its 9 straight heads, the probability of a 10th head is 41.2%.

(This obviously assumes the coin is dated after 1950.  I think for coins pre-1950 - the probability is closer to 50-50% - but not exactly 50-50 - so you are still JUICED OUT).

* However, I think if its 9 straight tails, it's over 50% the 10th will be tails (and this is regardless of coin is pre 1950 or post 1950 - except for shiny pennies).


* STATS 101:

1. Probabilility of 10th flip being HEADS (after 9 heads) = 50%.  If you dont' think so.  Flip a coin all day, once you get 9 heads, CALL ME (PM and I will give you my #).  I will bet $5,000 on TAILS, and you can bet just $5,500 on HEADS (it's a streak - gotta be HEADS again).  JUST THINK WHERE YOU WOULD PUT $ - and answer is obvious.

2. Probability of 10 straight HEADS = 1/1024
3. Probability of 10 straight same flips = 1/512 (heads + tails)

* Agree with if you have MS in Stats - you would not be asking.

* GL GL to all.  Not trying to talk trash, just having some fun.  This is BASIC STATS - and we should all know this...
kaponofor3 PM kaponofor3
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 35358
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Posted: 5/10/2012 11:22:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mikado:

I've heard a lot of people use the analogy with the roulette table and black and red.  However coins are the same concept.

Each flip is independent of the flip that came before that.  In other words the last flip has no effect on future flips.  50/50 is the probability each time - your odds may not be 50/50 like in roulette.  Either way, I've seen it spin on red over 15 times in a row, and the same thing can be said for a coin.

As humans we would like to say the time of probability is up and that the coin is "DUE" to hit the other way.  We just like to think that way naturally in order to convince ourselves that the other side of the coin would be even more likely to come up since it is "DUE".  Don't buy into this. The truth is in the math, not in your heart.  

ApocalypseLater PM ApocalypseLater
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 4260
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Posted: 5/10/2012 10:59:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by curtis07:

Apocalypse I got a drs from Cornell in statistics ur wrong but thanks for ur input up 20k over 3 yrs I think I'll keep gambling good luck 

1) whether or not you have won 20k over the past 3 years (which i would be a shitload of money that you have not) is irrelevant to this argument... which you would know if you actually had a "DRS" in statistics from Cornell...

2) if you had a "DRS" in statistics from Cornell, you wouldn't need to ask this question that i have known the answer to since i took "Probability and Statistics" in HIGH SCHOOL, and you sure as hell wouldn't be wrong about it!

3) no, i am not wrong... my answer is the flat 100% truth, and the correct answer, and statistical LAW!

4) you are a friggin moron, and anybody who takes anything you say seriously from here on out is equally moronic after this abysmally moronic demonstration of yours...

5) have a nice day!
Forum: NBA Betting Page 2 of 2  1 2  
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