Wells Fargo Championship Predictions: Backing Finau's Vidanta Heater, Leishman's Course History

With another slim field this week at TPC Potomac for the Wells Fargo Championship, our outright predictions look at Tony Finau, looking to parlay his strong play in Mexico with another good week, and Marc Leishman, who has some great history at this track.

Last Updated: May 3, 2022 4:48 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Marc Leishman Wells Fargo Championship PGA Tour
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Last week saw Jon Rahm claim his seventh PGA Tour victory as a short +450 favorite. This week isn't much different, with Rory McIlroy sitting well above the pack atop the Wells Fargo Championship odds board at +750.

With Quail Hollow being prepared for the Presidents Cup, this year's event heads to TPC Potomac at Avenal Farm in Maryland. It's a short 7,160-yard track that values approach-play precision more than most weeks, which Tour Junkies breaks down in their full lineup of Wells Fargo Championship picks and predictions.

We comb through the field, highlighting a favorite, sleeper, and longshot worth backing this week.

Wells Fargo Championship outright picks

Picks were made on 5/2/2022 at 7:00 p.m. ET.

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Wells Fargo Championship outright picks

Among the favorites: Tony Finau (+2,200)

Jon Rahm might have won last week as +450 chalk, and Rory McIlroy might be worth a serious look at +800 if he were defending his title at Quail Hollow this week, but with the switch to TPC Potomac, the right play is to look elsewhere. 

Enter Tony Finau, who was nowhere to be found prior to his weekend heater at last week's Mexico Open. A third-round 66 and final-round 63 — including a 5-under stretch over his final six holes — shot him up the board into a tie for second.

A Top 10 in the 20-man Hero World field notwithstanding, that runner-up finish is Finau's only significant result dating all the way back to his drought-ending victory at the Northern Trust last August. 

However, seeing the ball go through the proverbial hoop may be just what Finau needs as he tries to inject some life into his 2021-22 season, albeit a few months late. He sits 76th in the FedEx Cup standings and has some ground to make up should he make it back to East Lake. 

Tony's length off the tee is well-documented, but his iron play impressed last week at Vidanta, ranking second on approach (+2.04 strokes gained per round, per DataGolf). That's an important figure every week, but even more so on a short track that places a premium on precision into the green. 

Tony finished T29 when the Quicken Loans National was hosted here in 2017. Rory aside, this week's field is pretty forgettable, and one that should allow him to pretty easily crawl back into contention. 

If Sunday's round in Mexico was any indicator, Finau has found his game again. I expect that momentum to carry over this week. 

Sleeper to watch: Marc Leishman (+4,100)

In 12 PGA Tour starts this season, Marc Leishman has two Top-5 finishes among seven Top 25s and just one missed cut. The one missed weekend came at the roller-coaster PLAYERS Championship, a result well worth throwing out. 

He's an incredibly steady force, and while he's only threatened victory a couple of times (Fortinet, Shriners back in the Fall), this week makes a lot of sense for Leish to make some more noise. 

As mentioned earlier, the Quicken Loans National was played here at TPC Potomac in 2017 and 2018. Leish played those events to the tune of T5 and T13 finishes, carding rounds of 67 or better in four of eight tries (Par 70).

He's gaining strokes in every major category highlighted by his putter that ranks out 19th this season. He also leads the Tour in Par-3 scoring and ranks 14th in birdie average. 

The Aussie should be plenty comfortable on this property, and with only a couple of heavy hitters in the field this week, the door is open for a middle-of-the-pack guy like Leish to rise to the top. 

Longshot worth a look: Davis Riley (+6,600)

Editor's note: This pick was made prior to the news of Davis Riley withdrawing from this week's event. 

For a guy who's been in contention in three of his last five Tour starts, this 66/1 number at BetRivers should garner some attention. 

Davis Riley is far from a household name on Tour but has been on the receiving end of some buzz since his playoff loss to Sam Burns at the Valspar back in March. 

A T63 at Valero and a missed cut at the RBC followed that Valspar runner-up, but he's since gotten back in the saddle with back-to-back Top-5 finishes a T4 alongside Will Zalatoris at the Zurich Classic and a fifth-place finish in Mexico.

A win is asking a lot of the 25-year-old, but the field is thin and he continues to find himself in the mix. 

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