The final event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs is here, and the top-30 players will hit East Lake Golf Club trying to chase down World No. 1 and betting favorite in the Tour Championship odds, Scottie Scheffler.
Add the $40 million purse to this, and one of the last chances to show off for Ryder Cup consideration, and it’s going to be a great week in Atlanta.
Here are my top golf picks for the Tour Championship:
Golf picks for the Tour Championship 2025
- Fleetwood to win outright (+1600)
- Henley to win outright (+2700)
- Griffin Over Matsuyama (-105)
- Burns 12th or better (-110)
- McIlroy Over Scheffler in R1 (+170)
Tour Championship outright picks
Outright pick: Tommy Fleetwood
+1600 at DraftKings
Tommy Fleetwood continues to give himself opportunities to win, and he’s carded consecutive Top 5s while ranking third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fifth in putting.
This will also be his fifth trip to East Lake, and he’s gained true strokes off the tee and on approaches in each of his first four visits. The breakthrough PGA Tour win is coming, and with Fleetwood’s game dialed in, this is as good a week as any.
Outright pick: Russell Henley
+2700 at FanDuel
With a pair of Top 5s and two more Top 15s in his four trips to East Lake, Russell Henley knows how to golf his ball around the track.
He’s also gained true strokes off the tee and on approaches in each of his past visits, and he also carded a smooth Sunday 62 to pace the field and climb to a T4 finish last year.
Henley heads into the week in sterling form, too. He’s gained true strokes across the board across his past six tournaments to rank second in this field in tee-to-green play and fifth on approaches.
Tour Championship prop picks
Tournament matchup pick: Ben Griffin over Hideki Matsuyama
-105 at FanDuel
Ben Griffin has topped Hideki Matsuyama in three consecutive events, and I particularly value the American ranking sixth in this field in true strokes gained putting during the run, while Matsuyama checks in 26th.
Additionally, the two players couldn’t have had different weekends at the BMW Championship. Matsuyama lost -7.52 true strokes total to freefall down the leaderboard, while Griffin held it together with a gutsy final round to card a T12.
Remember, Griffin was six over after three holes Sunday, and he finished the round at -1. Impressive.
Finishing position pick: Sam Burns 12th or better
-110 at bet365
I expect the momentum of a tidy T4 in the BMW Championship to parlay into another solid finish in the Tour Championship for Sam Burns.
He carded a T12 while ranking ninth in true strokes gained tee-to-green and second on approaches here last year, and he’s also gained true strokes on approaches and on the greens in consecutive events to rank 12th and first in this field in the metrics.
There’s huge Ryder Cup motivation here, and I’m anticipating Burns rising to the occasion to secure a spot on the team as a Captain's pick.
Tour Championship first-round pick
Matchup pick: Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler
+170 at DraftKings
Rory McIlroy has won three times at East Lake, and this will also be his 12th trip to the track. Scottie Scheffler has obviously also been brilliant here, and he’s the defending champion.
Still, this is a long number to back McIlroy in a single 18-hole matchup considering he’s topped Scheffler in eight of the past 16 rounds in this event.
Tour Championship odds
- Scottie Scheffler (+150)
- Rory McIlroy (+850)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1400)
- Ludvig Aberg (+1800)
- Russell Henley (+2000)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2500)
- Justin Thomas (+2500)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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