This week's PGA Tour event is sandwiched between the WGC Match Play Championship and the Masters – so you can guess what quality of field we'll be seeing.
Many of golf's biggest names will be skipping the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course, as the golf world once again prepares to descend upon Augusta National next week. While there are still some notable players in the field, this might be the week for savvy bettors to look at a golfer further down the odds list to capitalize on a field that might be preoccupied with working out the kinks before heading to the Masters.
We preview the field, break down the course and give our golf picks, predictions and best bets for the Valero Texas Open.
TPC San Antonio betting stats that matter
This might seem like the same betting approach week after week, but the key to getting around TPC San Antonio-Oaks Course lies in superior iron play. The course plays roughly the same for bombers and tactical drivers, so the tournament will ultimately be decided by those who are adept at playing strong approach shots and leaving as many makeable birdie chances as possible.
It won't hurt to lean on golfers who are exceptional at bunker play, either. This course has some brutal bunkers that are deep and well-placed to swallow up errant approach shots – so players who can get up-and-down from the sand will gain a critical edge here. Lastly, Greens in Regulation Percentage will loom large, as you might expect, while SG: Putting is lower on the list.
Valero Texas Open outright winner bets
The withdrawal of Dustin Johnson has not only robbed tournament organizers of its biggest attraction – it has also considerably evened out the top end of the outright odds. Jordan Spieth is the new tournament favorite at +1,200, with Match Play runner-up Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau next at +1,600. Hideki Matsuyama (+1,800) is the only other player lower than +2,000.
Charley Hoffman (+3,300)
We've said it before: No outright PGA Tour play is a sure thing. But it's hard to see a better value in this field than Hoffman at +3,300. Not only does Hoffman need a victory to get to Augusta, but he has been absolutely incredible on this course with 14 made cuts (including 11 Top-15 finishes) in 14 all-time events played here. Motivation plus history equal a great outright play.
Ryan Moore (+7,500)
It has not been a stellar season for Moore, who has missed four of his first six cuts and bowed out of the Honda Classic with a 72-72 opening 36 holes in his previous event. But this course has brought out the best in the 38-year-old, who is averaging 2.53 strokes gained per round for his career at the Oaks Course and has three Top-10 results in four appearances. He's worth a shot.
Valero Texas Open matchup predictions
Tony Finau Over Scottie Scheffler (-120)
Scheffler played an awful lot of golf last week – well over 100 holes, in fact – and has already qualified for the Masters. So, don't be surprised to see Scheffler look a little creaky in the last tune-up event leading into Augusta. Finau didn't reach the elimination round at Austin Country Club, that should actually work to his advantage as he'll be well-rested leading into this pairing.
Harold Varner III Over Charles Howell III (-110)
We just can't wrap our head around the fact that Howell posted a Top-10 result at The Players Championship. He has otherwise been mostly dreadful since late-January, highlighted by a T28 against a watered-down field at last week's Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship. His approach game has been nowhere near as good as Varner's, which should make the difference here.
Valero Texas Open prop bets
Cameron Tringale Top-10 Finish (+300)
Tringale is the second favorite to win the Valero Texas Open among players who have not already qualified for the Masters. The motivation to get to Augusta is one thing, but he's also playing terrific golf with four Top-20 results in his last seven tournaments. He might not pull out the win he needs to reach the Masters, but he should be in contention throughout the week.
Rickie Fowler to Miss Cut (+120)
Two Top-25 finishes in 14 events played. Five missed cuts. An incredible -.431 SG: Approach per round. A -.300 SG: Total average. It all adds up to a forgettable season for Fowler, who needs a victory to make it to the Masters but doesn't have the game to get there. Look for Fowler's woes to continue at a course that can be incredibly punitive on players who are struggling.
Valero Texas Open betting card
- Charley Hoffman Outright (+3,300)
- Ryan Moore Outright (+7,500)
- Tony Finau Over Scottie Scheffler (-120)
- Harold Varner III Over Charles Howell III (-110)
- Cameron Tringale Top-10 Finish (+300)
- Rickie Fowler to Miss Cut (+120)
Where can I bet on the PGA?
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